UK General Election **June 8th**

[max_usted]

I think this election campaign has shown that Theresa May doesn't have the presence or charisma that David Cameron had

Well quite. So much so that she desperately tries to avoid speaking before the public - not a good trait in a 'leader'. She seems very conservative (as in cautious/plays it safe by nature).

[mjmorris335]

I think this election campaign has shown that Theresa May doesn't have the presence or charisma that David Cameron had

Well quite. So much so that she desperately tries to avoid speaking before the public - not a good trait in a 'leader'. She seems very conservative (as in cautious/plays it safe by nature).

Unfortunately, she looks like the least worst option...

Mike

[ShaunWhite]

I think this election campaign has shown that Theresa May doesn't have the presence or charisma that David Cameron had

I'm glad to see a few more Tories removing their rose tinted glasses. I've said it before, both sides deserve better. I predicted a Labour dead cat bounce when they hit the TV because I knew she was weak, and there's been a lovely one from well under 1.1 (who here got 1.05?). Granted I thought we'd see more than just the two of them. Excuse me if I sound smug but you guys are so good on the horses, tennis and footy, I don't often get chance to feel like I know what I'm doing.

That said I wish I'd ditched my position last night, I've had to settle for 1.16 instead if 1.18. Nevermind, it's a few more quid to put in my care home fund, shame because I always thought that's what our NI was for. I'm not really sure what NI is anymore, it just seems like extra income tax to me. Social care should be a collective responsibilty not a gamble that hurts responsible savers hardest. My old man always said you either need a lot of money or none and he was right.

I'm gutted this will be the last election for a while, they're my most profitable 'sport'.

Is anyone else going to have a go at predicting the result? Mine's the only quid in the jar so far.

[Euler]

Conservative majority out to 1.21

[LeTiss]

It's turning out like the US Presendential market! - a couple of my friends in America says that Clinton was hated, utterly despised. The election prompted people to vote for who they thought was the lesser of 2 evils, in our case being the lesser of 3 evils

I'd back the Tories at 1.21, because I'm pretty sure they will still win

[cybernet69]

The headline today on the front of the Times Newspaper is saying it could be a hung parliament, with the Tories losing 20 seats and Labour gaining 30.

That will cause chaos and a nightmare.

We will end up being ruled by those SNP twinkies.

[mjmorris335]

The headline today on the front of the Times Newspaper is saying it could be a hung parliament, with the Tories losing 20 seats and Labour gaining 30.

That will cause chaos and a nightmare.

We will end up being ruled by those SNP twinkies.

YouGov using a new model that they tested during the EU Referendum, where it always had Leave ahead. It also allows for large variations apparently, so I'm not sure what use it is.

Good for a few doom and gloom headlines that someone in the party heirarchy is bound to over-react to.

Fun times...

Mike

[Nero Tulip]

Filled at 1.25 it seems. My net position is currently backing No Overall at 10/1 approx.

[Euler]

I'd imagine shy tories will come out if it threatens to get close

[ShaunWhite]

Conservative majority out to 1.21

I heard last night from an insider that JC will be doing the live TV debate today, that's the reason. Sorry if I didn't give you all a heads-up but I've been busy.

[ShaunWhite]

I'd imagine shy tories will come out if it threatens to get close

I'm not sure there's many, the right are already very empowered.

If anything, the number of Labour voters who'd said they wouldn't vote Corbyn (but obviously will given the choice) are the danger.

Record numbers of under 25s and under 35s have registered to vote. Almost half a million, and these have usually been found to be iro 73% Labour voters.

Central Office believe they've had a really effective social media campaign, but because of the way social media works, if you're right of centre you won't have seen it.

[ShaunWhite]

Last comment before I get on.

The reason we've had some very swingy elections recently is down to this astonishing fact:

British Election Study have shown that over the last 50 years the proportion of voters who switch parties between elections has risen from around 15% in the 1960s and 1970s to 43% in 2015.;

[mattdidius]

I'd imagine shy tories will come out if it threatens to get close

a prospective tory in a marginal told me a few weeks ago whimsically he wished labour were closer, jokingly suggested putting Jeremy Hunt on TV for a few days. I think they do feel they'll get a better turnout in marginals with a closer threat

[LeTiss]

Politics is very cloak and dagger, which I suppose is why us traders find it interesting

My local Lib Dem candidate knocked on my Mum's door yesterday, and he admitted that he disagreed with Farron and Clegg's behaviour in the aftermath of the EU referendum, by refusing to accept the result.

Of course, he is gagged from saying this in a public arena, it has to be 'off the record'

[Euler]

I was happy to bet on a small turn-out, but I think that will be reversed now.