Is there any resource available that can help to know how long a given race is expected to take from start to finish, based on the course, distance, and ground assumedly?
I'm trying to find a way to trigger a close position 30 seconds from the end of a given race...is there anything out there that might help to achieve this, and how dramatically does the ground or course affect this on a given distance?
Not looking to be to-the-second accurate, but would be nice to be about 5 to 10 seconds each side of it if at all possible.
Thanks for any advice or suggestions in advance.
Anticipated race durations?
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Thebest147
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am
Forgive me if this a silly idea but if you were to use timeform betfair at the bottom of the page it gives you the time of the overall race.then
n just type in that particular race track over the conditions of the day ie ground distance and form an opinion from there no average time there is the exact time.i have been tinkering with an idea take the overall time and work it to you advantage ie lay low at start of race and cancel bets 30 seconds before winning post ie anything can happen and the earlier selection hits a low price the more chance it has to get beat if you know what I mean
n just type in that particular race track over the conditions of the day ie ground distance and form an opinion from there no average time there is the exact time.i have been tinkering with an idea take the overall time and work it to you advantage ie lay low at start of race and cancel bets 30 seconds before winning post ie anything can happen and the earlier selection hits a low price the more chance it has to get beat if you know what I mean
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2896
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Just seen this.
I do believe you can do this however where alot people go wrong using speed stats and standard times even from a betting point of view is because horse racing is about getting to the finishing line first not running as fast as you possibly can.
Pace is the single biggest part of working out the speed of race. But lets say you do work out the pace of a race people still seem to forget that just because you have two races where they were both truly run it doesnt mean the faster time was the better horse.
When collecting speed data for any race the single most important factor is the class of a race. A higher quality race truly run is going to be faster then a lower quality race truly run. However this does not mean the better quality race is the better horse when making a speed assessment. But using standard times are always going to give you the faster time as the better horse.
A good horse can easily be disguised in lower quality running. If the horse doesnt run from pillar to post as fast as it can which 99% or horses dont, you are never going find this horse using standard times even with calculated pace.
This is why Frankel was so good... if it was possible to have better quality horses the world has ever seen, he could possibly be even better. A horse is never really going to get to 50mph and they are never going to be able to run at top speed throughout a whole race meaning there is a limited to what a horse can do. A race can only be run as fast as the competition as a rule of thumb.
Generally you could stick an average horse in a group 1 race and he will run round the track pretty much with them... its down to the business end they fail or should I say there class is shown... yet in this race the average horse will most likely show its fastest ever rating assuming it was a truly run race.. this doesnt mean the horse has run its best ever race it could in fact ran its worse race to date... a horse only runs most of the race as fast as the rest of them
You will hear a lot about whether a horse stays the distance. A horse rate 80 that stays 1m4f will easily go round the track in the derby with horses rate 120 but will most likely disappear from three furlongs out. Its just better horses run at a faster pace. Just like Frankel did, he just wanted to go yet... no racehorse is ever going to be able to run faster then 50mph....
When assessing the speed of a race or trying to forecast the speed of the race you need to understand the likely speed based on the class of the race.
The weight of the runners and the going is additionally a very important factor.
A race where the field are carrying 9.0 stone is going to be run faster then a field carrying 9.5 stone... but just because the later was faster run could be down pace and going conditions.
A 0-65 handicap race is usually run faster then a 0-70 class race which shouldnt make sense.. the reason for this is in 0-65 races... most races all the horses are rated 62/63/64/64... but in 0-70 races most races only have a handful rated around 70 and you find a lot of runners rated in the 50s.
So many reasons and angles but something to consider if you would like to forecast a race time.
I do believe you can do this however where alot people go wrong using speed stats and standard times even from a betting point of view is because horse racing is about getting to the finishing line first not running as fast as you possibly can.
Pace is the single biggest part of working out the speed of race. But lets say you do work out the pace of a race people still seem to forget that just because you have two races where they were both truly run it doesnt mean the faster time was the better horse.
When collecting speed data for any race the single most important factor is the class of a race. A higher quality race truly run is going to be faster then a lower quality race truly run. However this does not mean the better quality race is the better horse when making a speed assessment. But using standard times are always going to give you the faster time as the better horse.
A good horse can easily be disguised in lower quality running. If the horse doesnt run from pillar to post as fast as it can which 99% or horses dont, you are never going find this horse using standard times even with calculated pace.
This is why Frankel was so good... if it was possible to have better quality horses the world has ever seen, he could possibly be even better. A horse is never really going to get to 50mph and they are never going to be able to run at top speed throughout a whole race meaning there is a limited to what a horse can do. A race can only be run as fast as the competition as a rule of thumb.
Generally you could stick an average horse in a group 1 race and he will run round the track pretty much with them... its down to the business end they fail or should I say there class is shown... yet in this race the average horse will most likely show its fastest ever rating assuming it was a truly run race.. this doesnt mean the horse has run its best ever race it could in fact ran its worse race to date... a horse only runs most of the race as fast as the rest of them
You will hear a lot about whether a horse stays the distance. A horse rate 80 that stays 1m4f will easily go round the track in the derby with horses rate 120 but will most likely disappear from three furlongs out. Its just better horses run at a faster pace. Just like Frankel did, he just wanted to go yet... no racehorse is ever going to be able to run faster then 50mph....
When assessing the speed of a race or trying to forecast the speed of the race you need to understand the likely speed based on the class of the race.
The weight of the runners and the going is additionally a very important factor.
A race where the field are carrying 9.0 stone is going to be run faster then a field carrying 9.5 stone... but just because the later was faster run could be down pace and going conditions.
A 0-65 handicap race is usually run faster then a 0-70 class race which shouldnt make sense.. the reason for this is in 0-65 races... most races all the horses are rated 62/63/64/64... but in 0-70 races most races only have a handful rated around 70 and you find a lot of runners rated in the 50s.
So many reasons and angles but something to consider if you would like to forecast a race time.