Lay drifting favourite.

[greety]

Hi Guys (Dallas).
I'm trying to place a lay bet at 4.0 on a drifting favourite who was trading as low as 1.2.
I've obviously set a rule to place a lay bet at 4 and a condition that the LTP was 1.2. But this is not going to plan. Screenshots enclosed. I should imagine a few people would have tried this and its not very original but I would like to know what I'm doing wrong.

[ShaunWhite]

You haven't said what the problem is? Are the bets not firing, not being match, happening too often?

Did you want to lay it when the price is 4 after being as low as 1.2 ? The screen shot just says to lay at 4 when the LTP is 1.2.

If you did want to lay it when the price is 4 after being as low as 1.2 then the best thing would be to have ...
1 rule that tests the LTP < 1.2 and just sets a signal.
And a second rule (like the one you have) that does the lay when the current price is 4 AND your signal is also set.

Not sure if that helps.

[jimibt]

If you did want to lay it when the price is 4 after being as low as 1.2 then the best thing would be to have ...
1 rule that tests the LTP < 1.2 and just sets a signal.
And a second rule (like the one you have) that does the lay when the current price is 4 AND your signal is also set.

along the same lines as how i'd approach this. to recap:

1. set a signal to flag any runner that hits < 1.2
2. set a 2nd signal to capture any runner that trades > 4 but also has the sub 1.2 flag set
3. i'd also monitor that runner being above 4 for more than a fleeting instant as it could be on a churn and turn back. 6-8 seconds (as long as not in dying moments) should be enough.

good luck

[foxwood]

You need to check that the current odds are actually >= 4

Looks like you are simply laying at 4 as soon as the fav trades < 1.2.

Since bets are matched at best price, your lay bet at 4 will always be immediately matched at the current lay price of (say) 1.8 - that's my guess of what your "not going to plan" means

Also as jimibt says, beware the price just spiking up - they often do !

[jimibt]

Also as jimibt says, beware the price just spiking up - they often do !

therein lies a subtle little approach in itself by extrapolating the logic mentioned above out to another layer (low, spike, low)...

[greety]

Right guys. Yes, it was a pretty poor OP, not very specific about anything.
Thanks for all the input guys. Yes, Foxwood, I was pretty sure that would be the case, but I was hoping the condition would override that.
I've never used signals but if someone would send me a link to understanding the basics, I'll give it a go.
Prepare for a few dozen posts lol!
Jimibt. Was that good luck smiley, tongue in cheek? Or am I just being paranoid? If anybody is reading this and has tried this strategy, if they've failed miserably, would you post up and save me wasting my time please?

[jimibt]

Jimibt. Was that good luck smiley, tongue in cheek? Or am I just being paranoid? If anybody is reading this and has tried this strategy, if they've failed miserably, would you post up and save me wasting my time please?

it wasa good luck smiley (but the world IS out to get you ). monitoring the churn runners may prove fruitful, i.e. where they dip low, drift out, then come back in - that could be achieved using signals. not sure what the hit count would be like, but you'd only need a few with certainty.

[greety]

Thanks for the advice Jimi.
Just a thought. It makes sense what you say about a few seconds delay to counteract a spike. But if the fave looks well beaten, it will drift to a huge price in those few seconds, won't it?

[jimibt]

Thanks for the advice Jimi.
Just a thought. It makes sense what you say about a few seconds delay to counteract a spike. But if the fave looks well beaten, it will drift to a huge price in those few seconds, won't it?

correct, this is delicate balancing act you'd have to establish i think. another way to view it would be look at those that spiked above 4 and then see if they come back down below 2.5 and potentially do a quick back bet with a short offset... just a thought

[Frogmella]

You will need a cut off time ( a new rule for each possible race distance with different timings). You don't want to be doing this within the last 30 secs of the race, you'll get crucified.

[greety]

To be honest, I'm struggling with the signals anyway.
I think this might be done best manually, with the first afternoon in practice mode. I would be pretty confident that a horse drifting from under 1.3 to around the 10/15.0 mark would not be winning. The point is, do I want to be sat at my PC, watching every race, just to earn a few quid?
Thanks for all the input everybody.

[Dallas]

This file uses signals to do what your looking for, it will just need the odds editing to your requirements

http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic ... 52&t=12359

[Frogmella]

I would be pretty confident that a horse drifting from under 1.3 to around the 10/15.0 mark would not be winning.

Sorry, but you would be disastrously wrong about this. I know, because I, and probably everyone else, have already tried it.

Just watch the ladder at the end of the race, there are HUGE gaps in the money on offer and the price bangs around wildly especially in sprint races. I have seen a horse go down into the 30's and come back to win over a few seconds, it happens ALL the time and there is NO AUTOMATION rule that can save you. Betfair's in-play delay will ruin you.

There have been plenty of posts here warning users not to rely on stops in-play. They are correct.