+1 - amen
UK General Election **June 8th**
1.28 is a cracking price now
This is not Trump or Brexit, where the populist vote caused a sensation by winning through
In this GE, the alternative to May is Corbyn/Farron/Sturgeon, so it's a different scenario, as none of those represent the populist vote in the way Trump and Brexit did
This is not Trump or Brexit, where the populist vote caused a sensation by winning through
In this GE, the alternative to May is Corbyn/Farron/Sturgeon, so it's a different scenario, as none of those represent the populist vote in the way Trump and Brexit did
I disagree. I think May will lose. People are fed up with the austerity, housing crisis and no wage increases. She will continue with further cuts and we seeing no benefits.
People are fed up with NHS and immigration. Imigration will lose them votes but labour won't gain because we all know they are soft.
The poor won't vote conservatives due to all the cuts.
The middle class won't vote due to the tax changes. I got hit by the new dividends taxation. Others got hit in housing. Now they want the sick and old people's money.
Look at the massive negative impact she's getting online and in popular culture (that anti may song which hit number 1).
And the terror attacks will do them no favours and likely reduce turnout.
May is in deep trouble.
People are fed up with NHS and immigration. Imigration will lose them votes but labour won't gain because we all know they are soft.
The poor won't vote conservatives due to all the cuts.
The middle class won't vote due to the tax changes. I got hit by the new dividends taxation. Others got hit in housing. Now they want the sick and old people's money.
Look at the massive negative impact she's getting online and in popular culture (that anti may song which hit number 1).
And the terror attacks will do them no favours and likely reduce turnout.
May is in deep trouble.
We'll see in a few days, but I think you're wrong.workpeter wrote: ↑Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:02 pmI disagree. I think May will lose. People are fed up with the austerity, housing crisis and no wage increases. She will continue with further cuts and we seeing no benefits.
People are fed up with NHS and immigration. Imigration will lose them votes but labour won't gain because we all know they are soft.
The poor won't vote conservatives due to all the cuts.
The middle class won't vote due to the tax changes. I got hit by the new dividends taxation. Others got hit in housing. Now they want the sick and old people's money.
Look at the massive negative impact she's getting online and in popular culture (that anti may song which hit number 1).
And the terror attacks will do them no favours and likely reduce turnout.
May is in deep trouble.
People are sensible, they know we have austerity because we've spent all the money for the next fifty years and we're living on the country's credit card.
People also know the NHS is a bottomless money pit, but we've spent all the money already, but they also realise that if there really is something seriously wrong with them it's there and the care is good. (e.g. I was seen by a consultant within 7 days following a recent cancer scare).
Online culture is for the young, but they are stupid, few in number, and can't be bothered to vote anyway (if it can't be done on their smartphone its not worth doing), so thats not likely to have much of an impact.
As for terror attacks, who do you want to handle it, the nasty party or cuddly Jeremy that liked the IRA, doesn't want police to shoot to kill and who wouldn't fire the nukes? Not really a war leader is he?
The only possible problem is voter turnout. Apathy, boredom with it all, hearing the same arguments over and over and over again. I've never been less interested in an election in all my life.
As Labour have offered free Uni places from Sept17 like the librals did, I expect a strong younger turnout for them.
My thoughts on the general election turnout market -
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2017/0 ... n-turnout/
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2017/0 ... n-turnout/
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dragontrades
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm
I predict a 72% turnout and hungEuler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:26 amMy thoughts on the general election turnout market -
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2017/0 ... n-turnout/
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10399
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
66% and a 49 seat tory maj (I said that 2 weeks ago soI have to stick with it although I'd guess nearer 30 seats now)dragontrades wrote: ↑Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:25 pmI predict a 72% turnout and hungEuler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:26 amMy thoughts on the general election turnout market -
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2017/0 ... n-turnout/
btw We have stats on new young people registering...but any idea how many stop being 'young' voters? For instance do we need 150,000 new ones just to maintain the equilibrium? I can't see many of these new young registered voters actually getting down to voting..most of them left it until the last hour to register and probably will 'forget' to do it . Online voting would be a interesting change, an even bigger effect than the boundary changes.
I'm crossing my fingers for a Tory most seats & hung (or a tory maj of 1)... nobody in their right might would want to be responsible for what's coming in the next 5 years and whoever wins, there will be a change of govt next time and they will be in for 2 or 3 terms.
I say that with half an eye on my old age. Had a 10:30 apt at the hospital today, got seen at 11:45. Just a regular wed morning, heaven help us in a crisis. Doc said he wished more people didn't show up for appointments and dreads the idea of people having to pay if they don't show up. 'No shows' are the only reason he can cope and stick to his budget.