Yep, early hours on Mon (3am ish) they touched 1.3 ! ... by the morning it was 1.26. That was the biggest move in a few hours for no apparent reason and a big signal to greened up. I thought about flipping it but decided to just stick with what I had because, to misquote Harlod Wilson, 48hrs is a long time in politics.
UK General Election **June 8th**
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10399
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Market is somewhat different over at Sporting Index: -
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-be ... -100-index
https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-be ... -100-index
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10399
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Shouldn't that "No overall majority" be about 7% ? It just looks odd to me.
Is this effect caused by people hoping for an exciting finish, rather than one that's been thought through? (or maybe a few marginal Tory MPs looking for a few quid as consolation if they lose their job)
What this graph also says to me is that it could be almost anything between 0 and 124. With only 650 in total that's really quite a spread and in the realm of putting your finger in the wind.
(prices as at 5:30am 8 June)
Is this effect caused by people hoping for an exciting finish, rather than one that's been thought through? (or maybe a few marginal Tory MPs looking for a few quid as consolation if they lose their job)
What this graph also says to me is that it could be almost anything between 0 and 124. With only 650 in total that's really quite a spread and in the realm of putting your finger in the wind.
(prices as at 5:30am 8 June)
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Just to let my good friend Shaun know, I am feeling very calm today 
After 6 weeks of high blood pressure, and feeling like cartoon character with steam bursting out of his ears, I am relieved the day has finally arrived
I am keen to hear the result of BBC's exit poll though, as their GE election predictions have been superbly accurate in recent times - There might be some decent trades between then and the final result
After 6 weeks of high blood pressure, and feeling like cartoon character with steam bursting out of his ears, I am relieved the day has finally arrived
I am keen to hear the result of BBC's exit poll though, as their GE election predictions have been superbly accurate in recent times - There might be some decent trades between then and the final result
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sebking1986
- Posts: 11
- Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:07 pm
Looks like everyone has traded out! Only real money sitting on the back side is at 1.19 and 1.2 now. Loads of gaps.
Where are you?
I thought it would be interesting to get people's lowdown on their constituency and neighbouring ones - not to tell us who you voted for, but between us, to see if we are accurate with our local knowledge (just a bit of fun really, amongst all the fighting)
New Forest East
My constituency - it used to be Romsey & Waterside when I started voting. Michael Colvin was our MP, who died in a fire many years later. It became New Forest East in 1992 GE (I think?)
In the 90's the Lib Dems performed pretty well here, but their vote percentage has died off in recent years. Julian Lewis the Tory MP is well liked here, does much for the community, and bearing in mind this was a strong 'Leave' area, the result is a formality
Southampton Test
There are some interesting other constituencies nearby to watch out for - I border Southampton Test, where Saints supporting Labour MP Alan Whitehead is well liked. However, Test also voted 'Leave' and he was of the Labour MP's who was so angry by the result, he tried to stop it happening. Initially, he looked a banker to go, but recent events might turn the tide for him. It's also the seat that contains Southampton General Hospital, so many are employed by the NHS, and they seem to value Labour more. Looking at the prices, it's one of the country's closest marginals - I'd consider asking for a price above 5 on Labour, and see if anyone wants to match it - you might get a decent value bet there.
Southampton Itchen
I used to live here, I notice 11.00 was matched on Labour this morning, which is good value - this was John Denham's consituency for many years, but Labour lost it at the last GE. Bearing in mind, it's an area that has voted Labour in the past, and contains Ocean Village which has lots of younger people, that might be worth a nibble.
Lib Dems have held 3 nearby seats over the years - Romsey, IOW and Eastleigh.
Romsey
Sandra Gidley was a well liked Lib Dem MP for many years, but was narrowly beaten by Caroline Noke in 2010 - I believe she was the victim of tactical voting to get Labour out. It's full of old people though, so they will be cheering for Brexit and the Tories - very unlikely that the Lib Dems will win it back
Isle Of Wight,
Like many islands, IOW has a siege mentality and were heavy 'Leave' voters. They had a Lib Dem MP in 1990's when John Major dragged the Tories down, but Andrew Turner won it back for Tories in 2001 and has held it since. He is retiring though, but forget about backing a Lib Dem revival, UKIP made great strides here, and so Tories are guaranteed a win for Brexit
Eastleigh
Eastleigh though is interesting. The Lib Dems have done very well here historically, and held this seat for many years. It was the seat of the now disgraced Chris Hume. The Tories won it last time with a convincing win for Mims Davies, but there might be some value in opposing her. This seat contains Southampton Airport, so this is an important part of their economy, and I know some are concerned how Brexit might affect airport numbers - the Lib Dems could worth a punt if you get odds of 10.00+ matched
I thought it would be interesting to get people's lowdown on their constituency and neighbouring ones - not to tell us who you voted for, but between us, to see if we are accurate with our local knowledge (just a bit of fun really, amongst all the fighting)
New Forest East
My constituency - it used to be Romsey & Waterside when I started voting. Michael Colvin was our MP, who died in a fire many years later. It became New Forest East in 1992 GE (I think?)
In the 90's the Lib Dems performed pretty well here, but their vote percentage has died off in recent years. Julian Lewis the Tory MP is well liked here, does much for the community, and bearing in mind this was a strong 'Leave' area, the result is a formality
Southampton Test
There are some interesting other constituencies nearby to watch out for - I border Southampton Test, where Saints supporting Labour MP Alan Whitehead is well liked. However, Test also voted 'Leave' and he was of the Labour MP's who was so angry by the result, he tried to stop it happening. Initially, he looked a banker to go, but recent events might turn the tide for him. It's also the seat that contains Southampton General Hospital, so many are employed by the NHS, and they seem to value Labour more. Looking at the prices, it's one of the country's closest marginals - I'd consider asking for a price above 5 on Labour, and see if anyone wants to match it - you might get a decent value bet there.
Southampton Itchen
I used to live here, I notice 11.00 was matched on Labour this morning, which is good value - this was John Denham's consituency for many years, but Labour lost it at the last GE. Bearing in mind, it's an area that has voted Labour in the past, and contains Ocean Village which has lots of younger people, that might be worth a nibble.
Lib Dems have held 3 nearby seats over the years - Romsey, IOW and Eastleigh.
Romsey
Sandra Gidley was a well liked Lib Dem MP for many years, but was narrowly beaten by Caroline Noke in 2010 - I believe she was the victim of tactical voting to get Labour out. It's full of old people though, so they will be cheering for Brexit and the Tories - very unlikely that the Lib Dems will win it back
Isle Of Wight,
Like many islands, IOW has a siege mentality and were heavy 'Leave' voters. They had a Lib Dem MP in 1990's when John Major dragged the Tories down, but Andrew Turner won it back for Tories in 2001 and has held it since. He is retiring though, but forget about backing a Lib Dem revival, UKIP made great strides here, and so Tories are guaranteed a win for Brexit
Eastleigh
Eastleigh though is interesting. The Lib Dems have done very well here historically, and held this seat for many years. It was the seat of the now disgraced Chris Hume. The Tories won it last time with a convincing win for Mims Davies, but there might be some value in opposing her. This seat contains Southampton Airport, so this is an important part of their economy, and I know some are concerned how Brexit might affect airport numbers - the Lib Dems could worth a punt if you get odds of 10.00+ matched
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cybernet69
My MP is currently Simon Kirby but he had a reduced majority last time out.
But he did secure a £350 Million new hospital for the area, so i think he should do OK this time around.
Next door is that Caroline Lucas numpty (Greens) in Hove Pavilion, every time she opens her gob, i feel like reaching for the .308.
But he did secure a £350 Million new hospital for the area, so i think he should do OK this time around.
Next door is that Caroline Lucas numpty (Greens) in Hove Pavilion, every time she opens her gob, i feel like reaching for the .308.
I would judge constituencies by demographic. I would think that would be the key driver. Ocean Village is quite prosperous now, so that has to be right leaning. But obviously, there are quite large parts of Southampton that are not, so it would lean the other way.
My locale is a dead rubber. Conservative majority of 30,000, so no chance of anything interesting happening here.
My locale is a dead rubber. Conservative majority of 30,000, so no chance of anything interesting happening here.
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cybernet69
I am amazed in the 21st century that voting is not electronic. At 10:05pm you would know the result.