Hello Everyone, just had a good night playing poker with the usual mob down the pub. came home £50 up because the cards just flowed for me. as an example , dealt pair of aces , then J J K on flop then A then A, cleaned up. My thoughts then turned to trading. How much is down to luck and how much skill?
Surely if everyone can read the markets then no one would win!
I can read a poker table and weigh up the risk but cant seem to do that on the markets. Markets seem random to me. Does anyone have any pointers how to read markets.
Many times i have bet on a shortening horse only to find that when i place my order the market then moves in the opposite direction for no reason, what am i missing?
Maybe i am better at judging people than markets because they are faceless!
Any help would be appreciated.....
Wayne
Poker v Trading
Hi W,
Lucky you if you can successfuly read a poker table, I've studied the game and played for years and still couldn't hand on heart say whether it is a proven income.
One thing that is certain though, and is true for many pursuits involving unknown outcomes, is that in Poker you need many, many thousands of hands before your skill shows through (General opinion is that 250,000 hands would probably filter your hot runs and cold runs and leave just your skill, or expected value - for most players this would take several years)
Obviously poker isn't trading horses but there are parallels here. Both are a balance of risk versus potential reward and over the short term you can do everything right and still lose.
I suppose the BIG question for trading is
"When do we know that our results reflect our skill and we are not being fooled by a lucky streak or put off by an unlucky one?"
I guess what I'm trying to say is don't be put off by your early experiences. You could be doing things generally right. I myself trade now more than I play poker and I think I generally understand the principles. Like you I find live manual trading extremely frustrating and very difficult to read but I get round this by automating how I want to react to market movement. So far I find this is working pretty well.
BUT... is my sample size big enough!!!
Cheers
Lucky you if you can successfuly read a poker table, I've studied the game and played for years and still couldn't hand on heart say whether it is a proven income.
One thing that is certain though, and is true for many pursuits involving unknown outcomes, is that in Poker you need many, many thousands of hands before your skill shows through (General opinion is that 250,000 hands would probably filter your hot runs and cold runs and leave just your skill, or expected value - for most players this would take several years)
Obviously poker isn't trading horses but there are parallels here. Both are a balance of risk versus potential reward and over the short term you can do everything right and still lose.
I suppose the BIG question for trading is
"When do we know that our results reflect our skill and we are not being fooled by a lucky streak or put off by an unlucky one?"
I guess what I'm trying to say is don't be put off by your early experiences. You could be doing things generally right. I myself trade now more than I play poker and I think I generally understand the principles. Like you I find live manual trading extremely frustrating and very difficult to read but I get round this by automating how I want to react to market movement. So far I find this is working pretty well.
BUT... is my sample size big enough!!!
Cheers