hi all
some of you may remember my post a few weeks ago asking if anyone had built a successful trading system using excel.
Well, since then I've realised I couldnt get it working, so, inspired by one of the replies to my post, i decided to pursue a laying system for horse racing. I believe I've now got something that works, and I've also accidentally discovered a "back the favourite" algorithm.
Question for you UK locals though. One of my data sheets is showing a markedly lower strike rate for backs than the other data sheets. The sheet in question covered 5 to 18 May 2017.
Was there something weird going on at the time, because it would appear the favourite lost a lot more often than it ought to. Was it a particularly wet spring or something?
May 2017 data
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cybernet69
Too short a timeframe.
Example:
Many believe that over a period favourites will win 30% of the time. But how do you define that period, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year etc.
I have been to meetings where the favourite won every race and others where the favourite lost every race.
However, sooner or later the percentage should revert back to mean. Hence the 30% figure.
Example:
Many believe that over a period favourites will win 30% of the time. But how do you define that period, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year etc.
I have been to meetings where the favourite won every race and others where the favourite lost every race.
However, sooner or later the percentage should revert back to mean. Hence the 30% figure.
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cybernet69
Letting trades go in-play while you are going to sleep is probably not a good idea.
What happens if there is a power cut or the BF servers crash etc ?
What happens if there is a power cut or the BF servers crash etc ?
It's fine especially if just straight backing / laying, worst case is that you miss races.cybernet69 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:56 pmLetting trades go in-play while you are going to sleep is probably not a good idea.
What happens if there is a power cut or the BF servers crash etc ?
I'm not trading, I'm laying & backing.
I couldnt work out a consistently profitable trading algorithm, I suspect its partly because the people doing this successfully by hand have more inputs than just the betfair prices. For example, I think Peter Web et al have a live stream of the racing on sky sports running, so when the commentator is making positive comments about a particular runner, he can back it in the expectation he can lay it soon after for a profit. No algorithm of mine can ever hope to use sky sports as an input. I was attempting to use just the prices.
Anyway I have an automated backing and laying system that's really only looking at the favourite. No lays so far, but it has made 4 winning back bets. Not bad for the first "live" tryout with this algorithm.
Anyway its like 2:40am here and I should go to sleep...
I couldnt work out a consistently profitable trading algorithm, I suspect its partly because the people doing this successfully by hand have more inputs than just the betfair prices. For example, I think Peter Web et al have a live stream of the racing on sky sports running, so when the commentator is making positive comments about a particular runner, he can back it in the expectation he can lay it soon after for a profit. No algorithm of mine can ever hope to use sky sports as an input. I was attempting to use just the prices.
Anyway I have an automated backing and laying system that's really only looking at the favourite. No lays so far, but it has made 4 winning back bets. Not bad for the first "live" tryout with this algorithm.
Anyway its like 2:40am here and I should go to sleep...