The Effect of the Home Fightback Goal Metric in the Second Half in Japan J2 league in the 46-70 minutes time band in games that are 0-1 HT added to the opening goal by the away team in the 0-20 minutes time band
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> 6-11-4
57% over 2.5 goals = 1.75 < much lower over 2.5 goals in this profile then in other leagues such as MLS <
Effect of Early Goal
I will start posting in play analysis on this thread < hope you enjoy it < feel free to ask questions > make comments / DM etc < no trolling < all my data and analysis is offered for free < no intention of doing any commercial ventures although I will be happy to promote anyone that is not a nut job that automates early goal data 
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
Where Have All the Goals Gone in the Bundesliga? response to Rory Smith of the New York Times ; ” Packing “
Posted on: April 9th, 2017 by Jonny
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/spor ... .html?_r=0
Is Bundesliga average goal production a season in decline ?
This season in the Bundesliga the average goal production per game is 2.76 , last season 2.83, 2014-2015 2.75 2013-2014 3.16
Rory Smith advised that there has been a “subtle shift” in goal production in the Bundesliga when he simply wanted to discuss a new football metric
“Much of its work has focused on a metric it has developed called “packing,” which counts the number of players taken out of the game — outplayed, as Impect calls it — by a particular move, be it a dribble or a pass.”
Mr Smith et al have failed to acknowledge that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays.
In general the opening goal by the away team in the Bundesliga in the 0-20 minutes time band will result in acceleration of goal production and a high early away goal production in a season will raise the average goal production for the season.
2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014
Games 52 43 56
Over 2.5 75% 74% 80%
Over 3.5 56% 47% 61%
In the table above I have added all the games in the Bundesliga in the last 3 completed seasons where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define the % that ended over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals.
This season in Bundesliga in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;
2-3 0-2 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-4 1-1 2-5 1-3 0-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-3 1-5 1-3 3-1 0-2 <> 33 games with an average goal production of 3.24
Summary
In Bundesliga this season compared to previous seasons we are seeing a lower early away goal game production which as a result has effected the average goal production for the season.
Posted on: April 9th, 2017 by Jonny
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/spor ... .html?_r=0
Is Bundesliga average goal production a season in decline ?
This season in the Bundesliga the average goal production per game is 2.76 , last season 2.83, 2014-2015 2.75 2013-2014 3.16
Rory Smith advised that there has been a “subtle shift” in goal production in the Bundesliga when he simply wanted to discuss a new football metric
“Much of its work has focused on a metric it has developed called “packing,” which counts the number of players taken out of the game — outplayed, as Impect calls it — by a particular move, be it a dribble or a pass.”
Mr Smith et al have failed to acknowledge that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score ( game state ) in terms of the effect on accuracy as time decays.
In general the opening goal by the away team in the Bundesliga in the 0-20 minutes time band will result in acceleration of goal production and a high early away goal production in a season will raise the average goal production for the season.
2015/2016 2014/2015 2013/2014
Games 52 43 56
Over 2.5 75% 74% 80%
Over 3.5 56% 47% 61%
In the table above I have added all the games in the Bundesliga in the last 3 completed seasons where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band to define the % that ended over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals.
This season in Bundesliga in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band ;
2-3 0-2 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2 0-3 1-2 1-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 1-1 2-1 1-2 1-2 1-1 4-1 3-1 1-4 1-1 2-5 1-3 0-3 2-2 1-2 1-1 2-1 3-3 1-5 1-3 3-1 0-2 <> 33 games with an average goal production of 3.24
Summary
In Bundesliga this season compared to previous seasons we are seeing a lower early away goal game production which as a result has effected the average goal production for the season.
since that article was published we had a run of early goal games which produced a high goal production to leave the average goal production for the season ( Bundesliga ) at 2.87
I bet the chap who wrote that article wished he had waited till the end of the season
I bet the chap who wrote that article wished he had waited till the end of the season
2015-2016 season in the Bundesliga where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes, 75% ended over 2.5 goals and 56% ended over 3.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 75% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
The home teams won 29%, 13% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 58%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
Game Pathway
5/52 0-1 FT
28/52 > 1-1 <> 15-6-7 <> away teams won 25%
19/52 > 0-2 <> 0-1-18 <> away teams won 95%
2016-2017 season in the Bundesliga where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes,
70% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
8-13-25 > away teams won 54%
GAME PATHWAY
2/46 0-1 FT
26/46 > 1-1 8-12-6 >away teams won 23%
18/46 > 0-2 0-1-17 > away teams won 94%
last 98 games in Bundesliga where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
23-20-55 > away teams won 56%
GAME PATHWAY
7/98 0-1 FT
54/98 > 1-1 23-18-13 > away teams won 24%
37/98 > 0-2 0-2-35 > away teams won 95%
Both teams scored in 75% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
The home teams won 29%, 13% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 58%
42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
Game Pathway
5/52 0-1 FT
28/52 > 1-1 <> 15-6-7 <> away teams won 25%
19/52 > 0-2 <> 0-1-18 <> away teams won 95%
2016-2017 season in the Bundesliga where the away teams opened the scoring 0-20 minutes,
70% ended over 2.5 goals and 48% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%
37% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
8-13-25 > away teams won 54%
GAME PATHWAY
2/46 0-1 FT
26/46 > 1-1 8-12-6 >away teams won 23%
18/46 > 0-2 0-1-17 > away teams won 94%
last 98 games in Bundesliga where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band
23-20-55 > away teams won 56%
GAME PATHWAY
7/98 0-1 FT
54/98 > 1-1 23-18-13 > away teams won 24%
37/98 > 0-2 0-2-35 > away teams won 95%
2015-2016 season in Bundesliga where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 78% ended over 2.5 goals and 56% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 53%, 28% ended a draw and the away teams won 19%
Both teams scored in 87.5% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 78%
44% produced a goal(s0 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
2/32 1-0 FT
15/32 > 1-1 <> 3-7-5 home teams won 20%
15/32 > 2-0 <> 12-2-1 home teams won 80%
2016-2017 season in Bundesliga where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,
77.5% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals
Both Teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
40% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
27-8-5 > home teams won 67.5%
3/40 FT 1-0
23/40 > 2-0 21-2-0 home teams won 91%
14/40 > 1-1 3-6-5 home teams won 21%
last 72 games in BUNDESLIGA where home team opened scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;
5/72 1-0 FT
38/72 > 2-0 33-4-1
29/72 > 1-1 6-13-10
44-17-11 > home teams won 61%
The home teams won 53%, 28% ended a draw and the away teams won 19%
Both teams scored in 87.5% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 78%
44% produced a goal(s0 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
2/32 1-0 FT
15/32 > 1-1 <> 3-7-5 home teams won 20%
15/32 > 2-0 <> 12-2-1 home teams won 80%
2016-2017 season in Bundesliga where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,
77.5% ended over 2.5 goals and 50% ended over 3.5 goals
Both Teams scored in 70% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
40% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
27-8-5 > home teams won 67.5%
3/40 FT 1-0
23/40 > 2-0 21-2-0 home teams won 91%
14/40 > 1-1 3-6-5 home teams won 21%
last 72 games in BUNDESLIGA where home team opened scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band ;
5/72 1-0 FT
38/72 > 2-0 33-4-1
29/72 > 1-1 6-13-10
44-17-11 > home teams won 61%
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016-2017 < where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band in the Premier League
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 59 63 60
Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13% 28.33%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% 23.33%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62% 48.33%
Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% 38%
BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73% 83%
Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76% 82% < monster % over 2.5 this season <
Over 3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46% 66%
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 59 63 60
Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13% 28.33%
Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25% 23.33%
Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62% 48.33%
Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38% 38%
BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73% 83%
Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76% 82% < monster % over 2.5 this season <
Over 3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46% 66%
this is quite simple < the higher the % of early goal games in the Premier League = the higher the expected average goal production for the season < that simple > 
so when you find a chap on a forum advising X league is boring / Y league is full of goals > remind them to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league <
so when you find a chap on a forum advising X league is boring / Y league is full of goals > remind them to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league <
In the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%
The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW
31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/41 1-0 FT
26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%
12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%
32-6-3
In the Premier League 2016-2017 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,
75% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%
36-5-7 > the home teams won 75% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back
average goal production = 3.65
44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
4/48 1-0 FT
25/48 > 2-0 24-0-1 home teams won 96%
19 /48 > 1-1 8-5-6 home teams won 42%
Last 89 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band
68-11-10 > the home teams won 76%
GAME PATHWAY
7/89 1-0 FT
51/89 > 2-0 48-2-1 > home teams won 94% > is a 2-0 lead ” precarious ” ?
31/89 > 1-1 13-9-9 > home teams won 42%
Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%
The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW
31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/41 1-0 FT
26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%
12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%
32-6-3
In the Premier League 2016-2017 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,
75% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%
36-5-7 > the home teams won 75% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back
average goal production = 3.65
44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
4/48 1-0 FT
25/48 > 2-0 24-0-1 home teams won 96%
19 /48 > 1-1 8-5-6 home teams won 42%
Last 89 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band
68-11-10 > the home teams won 76%
GAME PATHWAY
7/89 1-0 FT
51/89 > 2-0 48-2-1 > home teams won 94% > is a 2-0 lead ” precarious ” ?
31/89 > 1-1 13-9-9 > home teams won 42%
this may shock a few of you > in the Premier league in games where the home team open the scoring in the 11-20 minutes time band in general you will see a higher goal production then in games where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band < I checked 
nothing is copied and pasted < i spent 5 years at 10 hours a day collating data manually > all the work is mine
Hi there,
Have followed with interest your various posts detailing aspects of the fabled *goal inside 20 mins* paradigm (I wonder if you've noticed this
).Anyway, the reason for getting in touch, other to thank you for your output, is to ask if you'd like to get involved as a *super-user* in the beta stages of a small project that I have been working on for the past few months. The (as yet unnamed) project sets out to explore both the horse racing and football markets with the aim of using both live and historical data to better inform market decisions. After reading your posts, I feel certain that you would be able to add to the party, whilst at the same time, be able to take on board the ideas of a few of the others that are regulars.
Other than market feeds etc, I've included a live chat chanel facility which enables current users to exchange ideas and market moves as they unfold. This has proved to be quite a valuable tool and is pressed into use particularly during the afternoons.
Anyway, the offer is there, even if you just fancy having a nosey. Ping me back if interested and I'll set you up and send the details back to you. At present, this is an invite only site, so the membership is small, focussed and handpicked, so you'll be among good company.
Hope this invite will give you an opportunity to further express your creative ideas.
Last edited by jonnyg on Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
2014-2015 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% < some expectation of the away teams fighting back , and the average goal production was 3.3 > some expectation of acceleration of goal production
2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% , and the average goal production was 4.00
2016-2017 in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes
28-3-4 > home teams won 80%
43% produced a goal 80 + minutes
average goal production = 3.69
2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% , and the average goal production was 4.00
2016-2017 in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes
28-3-4 > home teams won 80%
43% produced a goal 80 + minutes
average goal production = 3.69