Effect of Early Goal
I am passionate about football data and analysis which is only my hobby <
this thread will look at the effect of the time of the opening goal < an area I have experience in
happy to express my creative ideas for free on this thread
Total posts:371 | Search user’s posts
(0.30% of all posts / 2.46 posts per day) < not exactly a flood >
this thread will look at the effect of the time of the opening goal < an area I have experience in
happy to express my creative ideas for free on this thread
Total posts:371 | Search user’s posts
(0.30% of all posts / 2.46 posts per day) < not exactly a flood >
Posted on: September 12th, 2015
In the table below I have added the last 26 games in the Korea K League Classic where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band, 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 19% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 38.5%, 38.5% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%
Jeju Utd away fightback 10/3 Evens 2/1
on 60 minutes over 2.5 is offered at 1/2
in this profile in K league < you will see lowered expectation of an away win so we can see in theory that Jeju should not be fav at 1-1
over 3.5 goals in this profile in K league will be a rare event >
0n 69 > 7/2 5/6 12/5 < it is Jeju that should be around 7/2
bet advice < at 1-1 Gangwon draw no bet at 6/5
In the table below I have added the last 26 games in the Korea K League Classic where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band, 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 19% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 38.5%, 38.5% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%
Jeju Utd away fightback 10/3 Evens 2/1
on 60 minutes over 2.5 is offered at 1/2
in this profile in K league < you will see lowered expectation of an away win so we can see in theory that Jeju should not be fav at 1-1
over 3.5 goals in this profile in K league will be a rare event >
0n 69 > 7/2 5/6 12/5 < it is Jeju that should be around 7/2
bet advice < at 1-1 Gangwon draw no bet at 6/5
2-1jonnyg wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:23 pmPosted on: September 12th, 2015
In the table below I have added the last 26 games in the Korea K League Classic where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time and there was a fightback ( 1-1 ) with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band, 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 19% ended over 3.5 goals
The home teams won 38.5%, 38.5% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 23%
Jeju Utd away fightback 10/3 Evens 2/1
on 60 minutes over 2.5 is offered at 1/2
in this profile in K league < you will see lowered expectation of an away win so we can see in theory that Jeju should not be fav at 1-1
over 3.5 goals in this profile in K league will be a rare event >
0n 69 > 7/2 5/6 12/5 < it is Jeju that should be around 7/2
bet advice < at 1-1 Gangwon draw no bet at 6/5
FT 2-1
bet advice at 1-1 > Gangwon draw no bet @6/5 Won
Finland Veikkausliiga 2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,
19-2-0 home teams won 90%
76% over 2.5 goals and 38% over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 57% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 76%
29% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/21 FT 1-0
9/21 > 1-1 8-1-0
9/21 > 2-0 8-1-0
and this season 2-1 in running 4-0 2-1 6-0 2-0 3-0
> Since last season in Finland veik in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes tome band 24-2-0 < home teams won 92%
19-2-0 home teams won 90%
76% over 2.5 goals and 38% over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 57% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 76%
29% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
3/21 FT 1-0
9/21 > 1-1 8-1-0
9/21 > 2-0 8-1-0
and this season 2-1 in running 4-0 2-1 6-0 2-0 3-0
> Since last season in Finland veik in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes tome band 24-2-0 < home teams won 92%
KuPs 0-1 HT
28/1 11/2 1/7
over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8
HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger
why ?
28/1 11/2 1/7
over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8
HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger
why ?
data correct to May 25th and is my data which I have manually collated >
Last 40 games in Finland Veikkausliiga with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT
4-8-28 < away teams won 70%
GAME PATHWAY
12/40 0-1 FT > you do not want to be chasing goals in the 2nd half in this profile in Veik.
18/40 > 1-1 4-8-6 < away teams won 33%
10/40 > 0-2 0-0-10 < away teams won 100%
35% ended over 2.5 goals
1/0.35 = 15/8
The away teams won the 2nd half in only 25% < you should be looking to back the home team on the asian handicap at HT < betting on the outcome of the 2nd half only with lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half > because as you can see > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2
Last 40 games in Finland Veikkausliiga with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT
4-8-28 < away teams won 70%
GAME PATHWAY
12/40 0-1 FT > you do not want to be chasing goals in the 2nd half in this profile in Veik.
18/40 > 1-1 4-8-6 < away teams won 33%
10/40 > 0-2 0-0-10 < away teams won 100%
35% ended over 2.5 goals
1/0.35 = 15/8
The away teams won the 2nd half in only 25% < you should be looking to back the home team on the asian handicap at HT < betting on the outcome of the 2nd half only with lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half > because as you can see > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2
not a bad start to my forum betting / trading advice with a 6/5 winner < 
the one thing I have learnt in the last 5 years is not to take a blanket approach to the early goal > In Finland Veik in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band < in general you will not see acceleration of goal production and at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 ( sample ) a low % compared to other leagues in that profile will end over 2.5 goals
In 2014 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 68% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
The home teams won 20.5%, 20.5% ended a draw and the away teams won 59% < some expectation of the home teams fighting back.
In 2015 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 60% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 75% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
The home teams won 20%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 55% < some expectation of the home teams fighting back
40% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
In 2016 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band,
2-6-18 , away teams won 69%
46% ended over 2.5 and 27% over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in the first half in 65%
27% produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
2/26 FT 0-1
13/26 > 1-1 2-6-5 > away teams won 38%
11/26 > 0-2 0-0-11 > away teams won 100%
the one thing I have learnt in the last 5 years is not to take a blanket approach to the early goal > In Finland Veik in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band < in general you will not see acceleration of goal production and at 0-1 HT goal 0-20 ( sample ) a low % compared to other leagues in that profile will end over 2.5 goals
In 2014 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 68% ended over 2.5 goals and 53% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 59%
The home teams won 20.5%, 20.5% ended a draw and the away teams won 59% < some expectation of the home teams fighting back.
In 2015 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band, 60% ended over 2.5 goals and 45% ended over 3.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 75% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 65%
The home teams won 20%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 55% < some expectation of the home teams fighting back
40% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
In 2016 in Finland Veikkausliiga in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band,
2-6-18 , away teams won 69%
46% ended over 2.5 and 27% over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 first half goals was landed in the first half in 65%
27% produced a goal 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
2/26 FT 0-1
13/26 > 1-1 2-6-5 > away teams won 38%
11/26 > 0-2 0-0-11 > away teams won 100%
Norway Tippeligaen 2015 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal 0-10, 79% ended over 2.5 and 66% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 83% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half 76%
The home teams won 62%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 14%
45% produced a goal(s) 80 +
Norway Tippeligaen 2016 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal 0-10,
22-8-6 home teams won 61%
67% ended over 2.5 goals and 42% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 64% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 61%
28% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
4/36 1-0 FT
14/36 > 2-0 12-2-0 > home teams won 86%
18/36 > 1-1 6-6-6 > home teams won 33%
2014 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 85% ended over 2.5 goals, 54% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 85% .
In early away goal games in Tippeligaen there will be high expectation of both teams scoring as some expectation of the home team fighting back and the away teams won only 48%, 19% ended a draw and the home teams won 33% = acceleration of goal production in general > lowers expectation of a draw and very high home win %. = Huge in play betting edge ….
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in a whopping 81% and 42% produced a goal(s) 80 +
2015 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes tome band, 83% ended over 2.5 goals, 60% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 83%
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 75% and 60% produced a goal(s) 80 +
The home teams won 27%, 20% ended a draw and the away teams won 53% < expectation of the home teams fighting back
Last season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals, 53% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 81%
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 62.5% and 53% produced a goal(s) 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
3/32 0-1 FT
> 1-1 21/32 9-7-5, the away teams won 24%
> 0-2 8/32 1-2-5, the away teams won 62.5%
10-9-13 , the away teams won 41%
Summary
In Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then the > 0-2 pathway and as a result there will be some expectation of the home team fighting back with the BTTS YES % at a high level season on season in this profile in Tippeligaen
Both teams scored in 83% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half 76%
The home teams won 62%, 24% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 14%
45% produced a goal(s) 80 +
Norway Tippeligaen 2016 where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal 0-10,
22-8-6 home teams won 61%
67% ended over 2.5 goals and 42% ended over 3.5 goals
Both teams scored in 64% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 61%
28% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes
GAME PATHWAY
4/36 1-0 FT
14/36 > 2-0 12-2-0 > home teams won 86%
18/36 > 1-1 6-6-6 > home teams won 33%
2014 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 85% ended over 2.5 goals, 54% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 85% .
In early away goal games in Tippeligaen there will be high expectation of both teams scoring as some expectation of the home team fighting back and the away teams won only 48%, 19% ended a draw and the home teams won 33% = acceleration of goal production in general > lowers expectation of a draw and very high home win %. = Huge in play betting edge ….
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in a whopping 81% and 42% produced a goal(s) 80 +
2015 season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away teams opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes tome band, 83% ended over 2.5 goals, 60% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 83%
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 75% and 60% produced a goal(s) 80 +
The home teams won 27%, 20% ended a draw and the away teams won 53% < expectation of the home teams fighting back
Last season in Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , 69% ended over 2.5 goals, 53% ended over 3.5 goals and both teams scored in a whopping 81%
Over 1.5 goals in the first half was landed in 62.5% and 53% produced a goal(s) 80 +
GAME PATHWAY
3/32 0-1 FT
> 1-1 21/32 9-7-5, the away teams won 24%
> 0-2 8/32 1-2-5, the away teams won 62.5%
10-9-13 , the away teams won 41%
Summary
In Norway Tippeligaen in games where the away team open the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band , > 1-1 pathway will be far more likely then the > 0-2 pathway and as a result there will be some expectation of the home team fighting back with the BTTS YES % at a high level season on season in this profile in Tippeligaen
keep an eye on the 2 early away goal games in Norway 1st Div if 0-1 HT <
last 40 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes Norway 1st Div
52.5% over 2.5 goals = 10/11
6-11-23 < AWAY TEAMS WON 57.5%
GAME PATHWAY
8/40 0-1 FT
17/40 > 1-1 < 12/17 WENT TO 1-1 WITH THE FIGHTBACK GOAL IN THE 46-70 MINUTES TIME BAND
15/40 > 0-2
last 40 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes Norway 1st Div
52.5% over 2.5 goals = 10/11
6-11-23 < AWAY TEAMS WON 57.5%
GAME PATHWAY
8/40 0-1 FT
17/40 > 1-1 < 12/17 WENT TO 1-1 WITH THE FIGHTBACK GOAL IN THE 46-70 MINUTES TIME BAND
15/40 > 0-2
I read on another forum that you were down by 8% on your ROI. The guy posting seemed to be giving you a hard time, but the thread was far too long for me to be able to read through it all. Where did he get this 8% figure from? Did he just make it up or was it based on your actual results?
as a basic summary of my research I have been looking at survival analysis in terms of a game of football in an individual league which is the ability of lack of ability of a team re holding onto their opening goal advantage < given the time of the opening goal < very stimulating stuff if you are into that kind of stuff >
well I have never posted figures to any forum and that chap joined the forum on May 31st and attempted to troll me > very common in the betting industry sadly < I have had one death threat / 2 legal threats / a blog advised I sleep with prostitutes etc < as I dont charge I dont feel any urge to show ROI but you will find that my in play analysis is very strong < your callBluesky wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2017 5:32 pmI read on another forum that you were down by 8% on your ROI. The guy posting seemed to be giving you a hard time, but the thread was far too long for me to be able to read through it all. Where did he get this 8% figure from? Did he just make it up or was it based on your actual results?
as they say image is everything < i dont need to worry about image < I love football data and analysis
as it happens
I have read on social media that
1. I sleep with prostitutes
2. I am mental
3. I am racist
4. I lost people money < I have never entered into any contract with anyone but myself
100% of the entities behind the comments 1-4 work in the betting industry <
does anyone want to discuss football data and analysis > ???
I have read on social media that
1. I sleep with prostitutes
2. I am mental
3. I am racist
4. I lost people money < I have never entered into any contract with anyone but myself
100% of the entities behind the comments 1-4 work in the betting industry <
does anyone want to discuss football data and analysis > ???