Effect of Early Goal

[jonnyg]

keep an eye on the 2 early away goal games in Norway 1st Div if 0-1 HT <

last 40 0-1 HT goal 0-20 minutes Norway 1st Div

52.5% over 2.5 goals = 10/11

6-11-23 < AWAY TEAMS WON 57.5%

GAME PATHWAY

8/40 0-1 FT

17/40 > 1-1 < 12/17 WENT TO 1-1 WITH THE FIGHTBACK GOAL IN THE 46-70 MINUTES TIME BAND

15/40 > 0-2

Ranheim 0-1 HT

11/2 11/4 8/15

over 2.5 is offered at 5/6

Ranheim to score 2nd goal at Evens , No 2nd goal at 7/2 , Monj 2nd goal at 6/4


= zero edge as prices at HT look spot on >

[jonnyg]

data correct to May 25th and is my data which I have manually collated >

Last 40 games in Finland Veikkausliiga with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT

4-8-28 < away teams won 70%

GAME PATHWAY

12/40 0-1 FT > you do not want to be chasing goals in the 2nd half in this profile in Veik.

18/40 > 1-1 4-8-6 < away teams won 33%

10/40 > 0-2 0-0-10 < away teams won 100%

35% ended over 2.5 goals

1/0.35 = 15/8

The away teams won the 2nd half in only 25% < you should be looking to back the home team on the asian handicap at HT < betting on the outcome of the 2nd half only with lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half > because as you can see > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2

still 0-1 with HJK now 6/5 to win 2nd half

with over 2.5 now offered at 9/4 < 58 gone

[jonnyg]

KuPs 0-1 HT

28/1 11/2 1/7

over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8

HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger


why ?

0n 63 minutes over 2.5 is now offered at 12/5 with HJK now offered at 7/5 to win 2nd half

[jonnyg]

I am very strong at the majority of leagues around the globe when it comes to early goal games < did put it some hard graft to get to this level >

[jonnyg]

Haugesund 1-0 HT

8/11 5/2 9/2

over 2.5 is offered at 5/6 < should be around 6/4

Huag 2nd goal = 15/8 no 2nd goal = 7/2 , Rosenberg 2nd goal = 5/6

In the Table below I have added the last 44 games in Norway Tippeligaen where the home team, opened the scoring 0-10 and 1-0 Half time , and 41% ended over 2.5 goals

The home teams won 70%, 23% ended a draw and the away teams won 7%

23% of the games in the table below followed the pathway to 1-1 with the 2nd goal in the 46-70 time band.

data correct to May 1st 2017

[jonnyg]

I can see what I consider a pricing error in the Huagesund game <


Rosenberg are offered at 4/5 to score goal 2 when the home team given the events of the first half are just as likely / i would say more likely to score goal 2 <

I have looked at 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in most leagues around the globe <

in many leagues > 1-1 in 46-70 is not common at all < so in that time period as time decays > 2-0 will be far more likely then > 1-1

[jonnyg]

KuPs 0-1 HT

28/1 11/2 1/7

over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8

HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger


why ?

0n 63 minutes over 2.5 is now offered at 12/5 with HJK now offered at 7/5 to win 2nd half

on 72 over 2.5 is offered at 4/1 with HJK to win 2nd half at 7/4

on 78 HJK are now offered at 9/4 to win 2nd half

[jonnyg]

I have shown in a number of leagues 0-1 HT goal 0-20 that the goal production will be much higher then 0-1 Ht goal 21-HT < this does not apply to Finland Veik < do not take a blanket approach to the early goal

[jonnyg]

Will provide a summary of the in play analysis this afternoon

1. we had that game in Korea < away fightback > 1-1 in 2nd half < 1-0 HT > with lowered expectation of an away win < FT 2-1

2. HJK game < market had much higher expectation of over 2.5 goals at HT and HJK winning the 2nd half given the events of first half <

3, the market at Ht has Rosenborg at a much higher expectation of scoring goal 2 = survival analysis < given the first half events >

[jonnyg]

data correct to May 25th and is my data which I have manually collated >

Last 40 games in Finland Veikkausliiga with the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band and 0-1 HT

4-8-28 < away teams won 70%

GAME PATHWAY

12/40 0-1 FT > you do not want to be chasing goals in the 2nd half in this profile in Veik.

18/40 > 1-1 4-8-6 < away teams won 33%

10/40 > 0-2 0-0-10 < away teams won 100%

35% ended over 2.5 goals

1/0.35 = 15/8

The away teams won the 2nd half in only 25% < you should be looking to back the home team on the asian handicap at HT < betting on the outcome of the 2nd half only with lowered expectation of the away team winning the 2nd half > because as you can see > 1-1 will be more likely then > 0-2

still 0-1 with HJK now 6/5 to win 2nd half

with over 2.5 now offered at 9/4 < 58 gone

0-1 < 86 minutes gone

[jonnyg]

HJK game goes 0-2 < with 2nd goal on 87 minutes < i have looked at the early goal and the goal 80 + to discover that a goal 80 + is far more likely in a game with an early goal metric then no early goal metric >

I am more then delighted to discuss football data and analysis with anyone that is interested and answer any questions / discuss any comments you may have > please no more trolling

[jonnyg]

KuPs 0-1 HT

28/1 11/2 1/7

over 2.5 is offered at 6/5 and should be around 15/8

HJK Helsinki are offered at 10/11 to win the 2nd half ( 2nd half betting ) and this price looks way out of line with expectation given the events of the first half < the price should be much bigger > ditto HJK are offered at 8/11 to score goal 2 and that price should be bigger


why ?

0n 63 minutes over 2.5 is now offered at 12/5 with HJK now offered at 7/5 to win 2nd half

on 72 over 2.5 is offered at 4/1 with HJK to win 2nd half at 7/4

on 78 HJK are now offered at 9/4 to win 2nd half

FT 0-2

[jonnyg]

2 early home goal games in Iceland >


2015 Iceland Urvalsdeild where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band , 78% ended over 2.5 goals and 67% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 78% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 72%

The home teams won 61%, 33% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 6% < some expectation of the away teams fighting back but low expectation of the away teams winning.

39% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes


2-0 and 1-0 at the moment

[jonnyg]

my focus in terms of the early goal in an individual league = survival analysis > is > 1-1 more likely then 0-2/2-0 or will the game stick at 1-0/0-1 ???

[jonnyg]

I can see what I consider a pricing error in the Huagesund game <


Rosenberg are offered at 4/5 to score goal 2 when the home team given the events of the first half are just as likely / i would say more likely to score goal 2 <

I have looked at 1-0 HT goal 0-10 minutes in most leagues around the globe <

in many leagues > 1-1 in 46-70 is not common at all < so in that time period as time decays > 2-0 will be far more likely then > 1-1

Rosenberg did not go > 1-1 in 46-70 time band

and on 71 are now 15/8 to score goal 2