a league such as la liga is perfect for the over 1.5 strategy < last season in La Liga in games where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band 50/51 over 1.5 goals
Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric
an early home goal game in Finland veik ended 1-0 today < 80% expectation of a home win given the first half events with 17% expectation of 1-0 FT given the first half events < > FT 1-0 <
a league such as la liga is perfect for the over 1.5 strategy < last season in La Liga in games where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band 50/51 over 1.5 goals
a league such as la liga is perfect for the over 1.5 strategy < last season in La Liga in games where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band 50/51 over 1.5 goals
Johnny I spent the last couple of hours reading through your post on here they have fascinated me a little however they are hard to read as you're constantly replying to yourself, and at times the english is not great, all though its not terrible either just pointing out maybe there's a better way to communicate on all your threads.
I'm intrigued by your finding and a little surprised that you haven't had a lot more responses from the community here, your data on the surface seems a bit of an eye opener I have said for years that data sets in football is miss leading due to the lack of context yet maybe with your specifics metrics such as an early goal provides the context other data has been missing for me this goes beyond the simple fact we have an early goal all though that is a raw data fact i wonder if that raw data metric leads to a far more fundamental question about how the psychology of a team responds we are creatures of habit after all and i wonder if this is turn provides real context as a team of players will respond specifically in a predictable way due to the environment they are operating in and i wonder if that's why different leagues also provided slightly different results ( thats a bit of out loud thinking from myself not sure it entirely make sense it's late and i'm tired but maybe you and other get the jist ) back to my first point before my rambling their ....no one responding why is that ? maybe its the way your structuring your post i'm not sure, my eyes are tired its 01:08 and i been reading your post for over an hour and a half now i'll come back tomorrow with some fresh eyes and go over your stuff again.
maybe a little food for thought for yourself here how to engage your audience in the future you seem to have gone to a lot of effort with all these threads and post yet the impact at this point seems minimal. One of the biggest lesson in life is, it's okay to make a mistake but to keep repeating that mistake is stupidity !
whats the thoughts from the rest of the guys here on the forum reading these posts ?
I'm intrigued by your finding and a little surprised that you haven't had a lot more responses from the community here, your data on the surface seems a bit of an eye opener I have said for years that data sets in football is miss leading due to the lack of context yet maybe with your specifics metrics such as an early goal provides the context other data has been missing for me this goes beyond the simple fact we have an early goal all though that is a raw data fact i wonder if that raw data metric leads to a far more fundamental question about how the psychology of a team responds we are creatures of habit after all and i wonder if this is turn provides real context as a team of players will respond specifically in a predictable way due to the environment they are operating in and i wonder if that's why different leagues also provided slightly different results ( thats a bit of out loud thinking from myself not sure it entirely make sense it's late and i'm tired but maybe you and other get the jist ) back to my first point before my rambling their ....no one responding why is that ? maybe its the way your structuring your post i'm not sure, my eyes are tired its 01:08 and i been reading your post for over an hour and a half now i'll come back tomorrow with some fresh eyes and go over your stuff again.
maybe a little food for thought for yourself here how to engage your audience in the future you seem to have gone to a lot of effort with all these threads and post yet the impact at this point seems minimal. One of the biggest lesson in life is, it's okay to make a mistake but to keep repeating that mistake is stupidity !
whats the thoughts from the rest of the guys here on the forum reading these posts ?
2 hours ? > I spent 5 + years looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal in nearly every league around the globe to discover that the time of the opening goal In terms of survival analysis and goal expectation is the most crucial metric thus far in the history of football data and analysis > at a much higher level them expected goal totals < hope that helps >Ralphyboy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:24 amJohnny I spent the last couple of hours reading through your post on here they have fascinated me a little however they are hard to read as you're constantly replying to yourself, and at times the english is not great, all though its not terrible either just pointing out maybe there's a better way to communicate on all your threads.
I'm intrigued by your finding and a little surprised that you haven't had a lot more responses from the community here, your data on the surface seems a bit of an eye opener I have said for years that data sets in football is miss leading due to the lack of context yet maybe with your specifics metrics such as an early goal provides the context other data has been missing for me this goes beyond the simple fact we have an early goal all though that is a raw data fact i wonder if that raw data metric leads to a far more fundamental question about how the psychology of a team responds we are creatures of habit after all and i wonder if this is turn provides real context as a team of players will respond specifically in a predictable way due to the environment they are operating in and i wonder if that's why different leagues also provided slightly different results ( thats a bit of out loud thinking from myself not sure it entirely make sense it's late and i'm tired but maybe you and other get the jist ) back to my first point before my rambling their ....no one responding why is that ? maybe its the way your structuring your post i'm not sure, my eyes are tired its 01:08 and i been reading your post for over an hour and a half now i'll come back tomorrow with some fresh eyes and go over your stuff again.
maybe a little food for thought for yourself here how to engage your audience in the future you seem to have gone to a lot of effort with all these threads and post yet the impact at this point seems minimal. One of the biggest lesson in life is, it's okay to make a mistake but to keep repeating that mistake is stupidity !
whats the thoughts from the rest of the guys here on the forum reading these posts ?
I cannot be blamed for the lack of interest in the effect of the opening goal
If you look at the last 7 days re early away goal games in the leagues that I cover that ended 0-1 FT < as follows
Chap - AMG
AD CANTOLAO V COMERCIANTES UNIDOS
TRELLEBORGS V GEFLE
just 3 > put this into context >
what you are seeing is that the mainstream have not looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal because in general football produces a low goal production with the caveat that it is the early goal metric that could accelerate goal production < indeed an early goal could impede goal production as well depending on the league and the game state > current score as time decays <
because I have not taken a blanket approach < although football data is only my hobby < I believe I have raised the bar considerably > indeed football data and analysis is very weak as it stands < still to emerge >
footbote < in terms of context for this over 1.5 goals thread > 100% win ratio + the mod on this forum has advised that they do not want me to provide any data so I have to honour that as it is their forum
Chap - AMG
AD CANTOLAO V COMERCIANTES UNIDOS
TRELLEBORGS V GEFLE
just 3 > put this into context >
what you are seeing is that the mainstream have not looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal because in general football produces a low goal production with the caveat that it is the early goal metric that could accelerate goal production < indeed an early goal could impede goal production as well depending on the league and the game state > current score as time decays <because I have not taken a blanket approach < although football data is only my hobby < I believe I have raised the bar considerably > indeed football data and analysis is very weak as it stands < still to emerge >
footbote < in terms of context for this over 1.5 goals thread > 100% win ratio + the mod on this forum has advised that they do not want me to provide any data so I have to honour that as it is their forum
There is no problem with any users uploading and providing their data to the community there is even a section just for uploading their files/spreadsheets etc to. Im sure the community will look forward to seeing your work
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=54
I was just saying i had spent the past few hours reading your threads on here nothing more, It wasn't a criticism one of the first thing i did was drop my trading partner a call and tell him he need to have a look at your stuff i feel though my point may have been a little lost on you but it doesn't matter in the sense its of no great significance my observation about participation of your post, I'm sure ill have far more interesting points to discuss with you ! have you got a link for your blog ? maybe you could DM me it if you do
it will be really fabulous to see the raw data and the analytics involved ahead of the games (and as games unfold) as it has obviously just been post match analysis due to the OP's understanding regards publishing the data. no pun intended, but this will be a game changer to have live data as well as the raw historical data and analysis.Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:10 amThere is no problem with any users uploading and providing their data to the community there is even a section just for uploading their files/spreadsheets etc to. Im sure the community will look forward to seeing your work
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=54
if i understand the OP correctly, he seems to have nailed the early goal metric for each league in a specific way and will thus allow us to use that info in an appropriate manner for each game in their league. this will be incredible and having it unfold with live data commentary will open up so many avenues.
Just to add my voice - I'm also interested in Jonny's work (but only if/when he's happy to share)... it's very obvious that the effect of the early goal is a real passion of his:). I do read his posts so they don't go ignored. Definitely idiosyncratic and full of info, so I value them a lot. But as others point out, the data can sometimes be a little difficult to comprehend given formatting!Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:10 amThere is no problem with any users uploading and providing their data to the community there is even a section just for uploading their files/spreadsheets etc to. Im sure the community will look forward to seeing your work
http://www.betangel.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=54
2 early home goal games in Finland Veik > 5-0 and 4-1
last season Finland Veik in games where the home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band
19-2-0 < 76% over 2.5 and 38% over 3.5
the early away GOAL game in Finland Ykkonen is 2-4
2015 Finland Ykk in games where the away teams opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes > 67% over 2.5 and 52% over 3.5 goals with a whopping 62% producing a goal 80 +
last season Finland Veik in games where the home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band
19-2-0 < 76% over 2.5 and 38% over 3.5
the early away GOAL game in Finland Ykkonen is 2-4
2015 Finland Ykk in games where the away teams opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes > 67% over 2.5 and 52% over 3.5 goals with a whopping 62% producing a goal 80 +
thought of the day < Chess Algorithms < looking at millions of possible move combinations > In a game of football at 0-1 < a game can either go 0-2 / 1-1 or stay 0-1 < why cant some tech person turn every game around the globe looking at individual leagues into an algorithm factoring the time of the opening goal to give the expected pathway added to expectation of accuracy ?
-
welshboy06
- Posts: 165
- Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:06 pm
This could quite easily be done. If we could understand all of your data what every metric you use is. I appreciate the posts you put time in do, but as others have said... the aren't so was to understandjonnyg wrote: ↑Tue Jun 27, 2017 6:50 pmthought of the day < Chess Algorithms < looking at millions of possible move combinations > In a game of football at 0-1 < a game can either go 0-2 / 1-1 or stay 0-1 < why cant some tech person turn every game around the globe looking at individual leagues into an algorithm factoring the time of the opening goal to give the expected pathway added to expectation of accuracy ?
I am waiting for an entity to put all my research into an automated format < here is an example this evening >
Start
3 - 1
Arendal View events More info
D. N'Guessan 29'
1 - 0
1 - 1
50' S. Kiilerich
S. Stray (OG) 60'
2 - 1
D. Antwi 89'
3 - 1
at 1-1 = an away fightback < 1-1
the goal line was offered at 3.5 and at 2-1 the goal line was offered at 4.5
so in Norway 1st given 1-0 HT to the home team > 1-1 with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes < what is the expectation of further goal production ?
at 2-1 the line was 4.5 < hang on because the last 20 in that profile in Norway 1st and 1/20 ended over 4.5 <
Start
3 - 1
Arendal View events More info
D. N'Guessan 29'
1 - 0
1 - 1
50' S. Kiilerich
S. Stray (OG) 60'
2 - 1
D. Antwi 89'
3 - 1
at 1-1 = an away fightback < 1-1
the goal line was offered at 3.5 and at 2-1 the goal line was offered at 4.5
so in Norway 1st given 1-0 HT to the home team > 1-1 with the 2nd goal 46-70 minutes < what is the expectation of further goal production ?
at 2-1 the line was 4.5 < hang on because the last 20 in that profile in Norway 1st and 1/20 ended over 4.5 <