Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric

[jonnyg]

As a basic starting point re automation >

can someone produce early goal data algo for individual teams ? so team A open the scoring away 0-20 in the league / concede the opening goal at home 0-20 / team A open the scoring 0-10 at home / concede the opening goal away 0-10 <

the icing on the cake would be to filter 0-1 HT 1-0 HT and 1-1 HT >



we can then move onto league data

[jonnyg]

we can take Arsenal as an example >

Arsenal since 2003-2004 in the Premier League at home have conceded the opening goal in the 0-20 minutes time band in 25 games and only lost 4/25 (16%) and in general we can see that when Arsenal concede the early goal metric at home ( opening goal 0-20 minutes ) that there will be expectation that Arsenal will “fightback’ and we see that Arsenal scored in 100% of the games.

Arsenal scored the 2nd goal of the game in 19/25 ( 76% ) and when they scored the 2nd goal of the game only Chelsea won.

The above data is of interest with reference to the game today between Arsenal and Manchester City on the basis that Arsenal were offered at 11/10 to score the 2nd goal ( 1/5 to score at 0-1 ) because they should not have been a bigger price then Manchester City to score the 2nd goal ( 8/11)

14-7-4 <> Arsenal only lost 16% < at Half Time > Man City were offered at 4/9 and I pointed out on my in play thread on the gooners guide forum that City should have been offered at a bigger price given the events of the first half.

T HT FT Goal 80 +
Arsenal Man City 5 1 2 2 2
Arsenal Watford 10 0 2 1 2
Arsenal Southampton 18 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Man City 18 0 1 1 1
Arsenal Swansea 11 0 1 2 2 90
Arsenal Liverpool 5 0 1 2 2
Arsenal West Ham 18 1 1 5 1
Arsenal Spurs 10 3 1 5 2 90
Arsenal Chelsea 20 1 1 1 2
Arsenal Wigan 7 1 2 1 2
Arsenal Newcastle 14 1 1 2 1 90
Arsenal Spurs 4 2 2 5 2
Arsenal Villa 11 0 2 1 2 90
Arsenal Bolton 7 1 2 4 2 85
Arsenal Everton 12 1 1 2 2 81 90
Arsenal Blackburn 4 3 2 6 2 89
Arsenal Spurs 13 1 1 4 4 89 90
Arsenal Everton 9 0 1 3 1 90
Arsenal Fulham 1 0 1 2 1 83 90
Arsenal Bolton 10 1 1 2 1
Arsenal Blackburn 3 3 1 6 2 85 88 90
Arsenal Bolton 12 0 1 1 1 90
Arsenal Villa 3 2 1 3 1
Arsenal Liverpool 5 1 2 4 2
Arsenal Spurs 5 0 1 2 1

can you automate this data for me ?

[jonnyg]

02/04/17 PRL Arsenal
2 - 2
Manchester City View events More info
0 - 1
5' L. Sané
T. Walcott 40'
1 - 1
1 - 2
42' S. Agüero
S. Mustafi 53'
2 - 2


this is survival analysis < given the time of the opening goal by City what was the expectation of City > 0-2 / Arsenal > 1-1 > game sticking at 0-1 ??? because in the game City were offered at odds on to score goal 2 when the data had the reverse expectation = Arsenal more likely to fightback < survival analysis > you could repeat this for every team given the time of the opening goal in every league <

[jonnyg]

In the table below I have added all the games since 2003-2004 where Arsenal conceded the opening goal away in the league in the 0-10 minutes time band and 85% ended over 2.5 goals

12-5-3 <> Arsenal lost 60%

Both teams scored in 90%

Game Pathway

> 2-0 < 12/20 > 11-1-0 > home teams won 92%

> 1-1 < 8/20 > 1-4-3 > home teams won 12.5%

At 1-0 V Liverpool < Arsenal were offered at 6/5 to score the second goal , 8/20 = 40% , 1/0.4 = 6/4

In the Premier League last season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW GAME PATHWAY 3/41 1-0 FT 26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%

In effect the market had much higher expectation of Arsenal scoring the second goal given the fact that the opening goal in the Premier League by the home team in the 0-10 minutes time band and the home team is far more likely to score the second goal in general which is why in this profile you will see lowered expectation of a draw .

T T+1 HT FT
Liverpool Arsenal 9 H40 2 0 3 1
Man City Arsenal 8 A10 1 1 2 2
Liverpool Arsenal 10 A14 2 2 3 3
Stoke Arsenal 1 H35 3 0 3 2
Chelsea Arsenal 5 H7 4 0 6 0
Liverpool Arsenal 1 H10 4 0 5 1
Chelsea Arsenal 6 H16 2 0 2 1
Man UTD Arsenal 3 H67 1 0 2 1
Stoke Arsenal 10 A15 1 1 1 1
WBA Arsenal 4 H57 1 0 2 2
Spurs Arsenal 10 H47 1 0 2 1
Stoke Arsenal 8 A32 1 1 1 3
Chelsea Arsenal 8 H23 2 0 2 0
Boro Arsenal 4 H73 1 0 2 1
Liverpool Arsenal 7 A80 1 0 1 1
Liverpool Arsenal 4 H35 2 0 4 1
Fulham Arsenal 5 H18 2 1 2 1
Bolton Arsenal 9 A45 2 1 3 1
Chelsea Arsenal 1 A15 1 2 1 2
Man City Arsenal 10 A48 1 0 1 2

[jonnyg]

The table below covers the data for games in the Premier league 2008-2009 -2015-2016 where teams in the Premier league 2015-2016 season opened the scoring at home with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band.



Home Team Total Games W% D% L% BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5
Arsenal 24 79 12.5 8.5 50 92 67 50 62.5 29
Villa 8 62.5 25 12.5 75 88 50 50 63 38
Bourne. 4 75 0 25 50 100 75 25 75 25
Chelsea 27 85 7.5 7.5 52 100 81 59 85 33
Palace 3 67 0 33 67 100 67 67 33 33
Everton 16 81 6 13 56 100 69 25 81 12.5
Leicester 4 100 0 0 25 100 75 50 100 0
Liverpool 21 81 14 5 48 95 86 67 71 24
Man City 26 92 8 0 50 92 88 69 69 38
Man UTD 26 92 8 0 46 92 69 46 65 31
Newcastle 9 33.33 33.33 33.33 100 100 89 33 100 11
Norwich 4 75 25 0 75 100 50 25 75 50
Southampton 10 80 20 0 60 100 80 70 70 30
Stoke 11 36 36 28 73 100 45 27 91 18
Sunderland 19 58 16 26 74 95 79 47 53 21
Swansea 11 64 27 9 64 91 73 55 64 36
Spurs 20 85 10 5 65 95 85 50 70 25
Watford 1 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 100 0
WBA 21 52 33 15 67 90 86 62 62 38
WHU 17 71 24 5 65 94 65 35 59 17

[jonnyg]

The table below covers the data for games in the Premier league 2008-2009-2015-2016 where teams in the Premier league t2015-2016 season opened the scoring away with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band.



Away Team Total Games W D L BTTS O 1.5 O 2.5 O 3.5 FH O 1.5 FH O 2.5
Arsenal 38 66 24 10 66 89 68 34 68 18
Villa 25 48 28 24 80 88 72 52 64 24
Bourne. 3 33 67 0 100 100 67 67 100 33
Chelsea 34 76 3 21 74 94 82 53 56 24
Palace 3 0 100 0 100 100 100 100 100 0
Everton 26 46 31 23 85 96 81 58 65 35
Leicester 4 50 0 50 100 100 100 50 75 25
Liverpool 35 66 14 20 60 94 80 57 71 34
Man City 33 67 24 9 73 97 67 55 70 27
Man UTD 36 69 19 11 61 86 69 33 58 25
Newcastle 22 64 14 22 73 91 59 36 55 23
Norwich 8 37.5 25 37.5 87.5 100 87.5 62.5 75 37.5
Southampton 15 40 13 47 87 93 93 60 73 60
Stoke 19 47 37 16 79 84 58 37 53 21
Sunderland 22 36 36 28 82 91 68 45 55 14
Swansea 14 50 21 29 71 93 64 36 50 7
Spurs 30 70 17 13 83 97 87 43 70 17
Watford 6 66 17 17 83 83 83 50 66 17
WBA 16 44 25 31 69 81 69 50 50 37.5
WHU 11 45 18 37 82 91 91 45 82 18

[Dallas]

Any chance of you attaching any actual data?
Rather than just spamming the forum with old copy and pasted material from your blog?

[jonnyg]

Any chance of you attaching any actual data?
Rather than just spamming the forum with old copy and pasted material from your blog?

that is the data < took months to collate < it is early goal data for the premier league < I have also done the same for a number of leagues < this is early goal data < an area I have looked at for a number of years as my area of interest

[jonnyg]

to put this into basic context < 5 years + research >

I have looked at the time of the opening goal in an individual league in terms of survival analysis > this means how likely is the game to go > 1-1 stick at 0-1 or go 2-0 / 0-2 ???

how will accuracy be effected given the time of the opening goal in an individual league ?

i have also focused heavily on 0-1 HT 1-0 HT 1-1 HT and the early goal metric in terms of expectation of goal production and expectation of H D A <

I have also looked at the fightback metric which I define as 1-0 HT 0-1 HT added to > 1-1 in the 46-70 minutes time band in terms of the effect on accuracy and H D A <

[jonnyg]

If you look at the last 7 days re early away goal games in the leagues that I cover that ended 0-1 FT < as follows

Chap - AMG

AD CANTOLAO V COMERCIANTES UNIDOS

TRELLEBORGS V GEFLE

just 3 > put this into context > what you are seeing is that the mainstream have not looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal because in general football produces a low goal production with the caveat that it is the early goal metric that could accelerate goal production < indeed an early goal could impede goal production as well depending on the league and the game state > current score as time decays <

because I have not taken a blanket approach < although football data is only my hobby < I believe I have raised the bar considerably > indeed football data and analysis is very weak as it stands < still to emerge >

[jonnyg]

]

7. Universitario V Bolivar over 1.5 goals at 0-1 at 1/16 WON

my record winning streak doing this strategy is 51 <

winning streak 7

losing streak 0

C/F

[jonnyg]

last 21 games in Argentina Primera 0-1 HT goal 0-20

2-2-17 < 43% over 2.5 and 17/21 over 1.5 goals

[jonnyg]

Wed 28/06/17 Figueirense
3 - 1
Londrina View events More info
Zé Antonio 7'
1 - 0
Henan 65'
2 - 0
2 - 1
75' Jonatas Belusso
Robson (PG) 83'
3 - 1

how does 1-0 half time game state to the home team in Brazil Serie A added to the goal in the 0-10 minutes time effect

A > expectation of goal production in the 2nd half

B > expectation / lack of expectation of the away team fighting back in the 2nd half ????

[jonnyg]

last 50 games in Brazil Serie B where the home teams opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT

43-7-0 home teams won 86% 1/0.86 = 1.16

GAME PATHWAY

10/50 FT 1-0

29/50 > 2-0 29-0-0 home teams won 100%

11/50 > 1-1 4-7-0 home teams won 36%

a monster in play edge because > 1-1 will be far less common then the betting industry predict in this profile in Brazil serie B

only 8/50 < 16% followed the pathway to > 1-1 with the fightback goal in the 46-70 minutes time band < the away teams scored in the 2nd half in only 34% 30% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 30% ended over 2.5 goals < 9/4 + I can explain why you should not chase goals in this profile in Brazil serie B in the 2nd half < if we look at the majority of leagues where the home team open the scoring in 0-10 minute time band and 1-0 HT > 1-1 in 46-70 time band in general will result in expectation of further goal(s) production < BUT if we look at Brazil serie B for example in this profile > 1-1 with 2nd goal in 46-70 time band will be a rare event


data correct to June 10th >

hello Dallas > I hope you do not mind me posting early goal data on this thread < this is an area I have spent most of my spare time looking at < all the data is manually collated and updated as often as I can

[jonnyg]

an area that the mainstream have still to discover is

1-0 half time to the home team added to the opening goal 0-10 minutes in terms of survival analysis < in the majority of leagues > 1-1 in the 2nd half in the 46-70 minutes time band will be a rare event < 2-0 will be far more likely in that time period < which creates a monster in play edge in games when the market believes that the away team are more likely to score goal 2 <