Hi Everyone,
I`ve been trying to learn this great game for about year now but as a working family man i only get one or two trading days a week if i`m lucky!I`ve busted more banks than i care to remember but think i`m getting my head right at last!!I have a question that i hope you can help with?I know some trades will go against me so i try and set me exit point(in my head not stop loss) before i enter my trade mainly for when the trade goes wrong but its where i set this that i`m struggerling with?I`ve watch one of Peters videos on trading on the ladder and on that he says trades often move against you first so statistacly when should you cut out? how do you know when its unlikely to come back to you? I put back bet in at 3.95 the other day cut out at 4.5 as money built up on the lay side then watch as it came back to 3.9.
Thanks for your thoughts, greg
cutting it!!!
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dan_payne182
- Posts: 93
- Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:46 pm
Personally as a rule i wouldn't enter at 3.95 at all, mainly because of the price band difference. if it creeps above 4 your looking at double the loss compared to the profit for each tick. Basically meaning you'd have to call 2 moves in the correct direction for every move you got wrong. Just my experience 
Hi Greg. You are obviously swing trading, so a scalping strategy, along with its associated entry/exit/stops, is no use to you. Peters VT has noted that a "trade can go into loss" before going the way you predicted. Whilst this is true, the real situation is that many newbies confuse a reversal with noise (the 1-3 tick bounces between odds). What you need to get clear in your head (and mathematically) is that the shorter the odds and the more volatile the market, the wider the noise bandwidth. Some swing trades are not worth attempting because there is no discernable difference between a reversal and noise.
First you must sit down with a piece of paper and determine the risk/reward ratio of sample trades at various odds. Then you need to calculate what "noise" variation for each set of odds is acceptable. That will allow you to define your trade parameters, entry, exit, stop. There is no "one size fits all".
First you must sit down with a piece of paper and determine the risk/reward ratio of sample trades at various odds. Then you need to calculate what "noise" variation for each set of odds is acceptable. That will allow you to define your trade parameters, entry, exit, stop. There is no "one size fits all".
A few questions you need to have awareness of.
1) Are you looking at volume to help with your initial entry? You may want to vary your entry if the fav. volume matched is say 50% of total compared to 90%!
2) Did you realise time before the off has big influence on the answer to this question? Especially when considering overall volume patterns.
Dan makes a useful point but you can exploit this to your advantage with great effect when you recognise which markets ignore price band boundaries.
This time next year I hope you realise there is no answer to your question.
1) Are you looking at volume to help with your initial entry? You may want to vary your entry if the fav. volume matched is say 50% of total compared to 90%!
2) Did you realise time before the off has big influence on the answer to this question? Especially when considering overall volume patterns.
Dan makes a useful point but you can exploit this to your advantage with great effect when you recognise which markets ignore price band boundaries.
This time next year I hope you realise there is no answer to your question.
Hi Again,
I`ve been thinking long and hard bout the replies that where posted to my question and so far have come up with more questions than answers!,RE: volume and entry points, if a fav`s volume is as high as 90% then that maybe a swing market so should i be looking for the low for my entry point? and will the price tend to move a long way in one direction? and in markets where the fav volume is 25% to 50% the price will move between price bands and will tend to come back to where the money has been traded?RE: time before the off, again the pice will tend to move between bands but with only 60secs or less to go the price will again tend to move in one direction? RE; markets that ignore price bounderies, is this type of market or type of race? RE; noise or reversal, i know prices bounce around between certain points but what are the main indecaters of a true reversal? Would really appreciate it if anyone could give me some much needed advice on any of these questions thanks for your help. greg
I`ve been thinking long and hard bout the replies that where posted to my question and so far have come up with more questions than answers!,RE: volume and entry points, if a fav`s volume is as high as 90% then that maybe a swing market so should i be looking for the low for my entry point? and will the price tend to move a long way in one direction? and in markets where the fav volume is 25% to 50% the price will move between price bands and will tend to come back to where the money has been traded?RE: time before the off, again the pice will tend to move between bands but with only 60secs or less to go the price will again tend to move in one direction? RE; markets that ignore price bounderies, is this type of market or type of race? RE; noise or reversal, i know prices bounce around between certain points but what are the main indecaters of a true reversal? Would really appreciate it if anyone could give me some much needed advice on any of these questions thanks for your help. greg
Hi Greg.,
I like the BA u-tube video relating to trading Betdaq. Although it seems to be aimed at trading low liquidity markets, the commentary gives some strong hints, about using the natural oscillations in a market, which should help you on the part of your post relating to "noise".
Cheers, P
I like the BA u-tube video relating to trading Betdaq. Although it seems to be aimed at trading low liquidity markets, the commentary gives some strong hints, about using the natural oscillations in a market, which should help you on the part of your post relating to "noise".
Cheers, P