Backing over 1.5 goals in games that produce an early goal metric

[jonnyg]

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/ ... worst-lead

I see > you did not read that correctly >

Teams with a one-goal advantage are far less likely to win. Of the 5,721 sides that have been one goal ahead during the Premier League era, only 2,987 won the game, 1,747 drew and 987 lost.


does not mean they opened the scoring because they could be winning 2-1 and concede the opening goal and draw etc

this is a key point > the ability to understand data in the way it is presented > this article re 52% has nothing to do with the opening goal > HTH

I can add some irony < a sky sports article < It was Martyn Tyler of Sky sports who has spent many years advising that a 2-0 lead is precarious > what I did over many years is looked at the early goal and 2-0 pathway to confirm that a 2-0 lead is not precarious re individual leagues and published the data >

[jonnyg]

so far on this thread we have had


Back the Draw if a Team has a 1 Goal Lead at Half Time with specific parameters and lay a team when they open the scoring >

both scenarios need to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal added to the game state < in an individual league < to have an understanding of the expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >

[jonnyg]

"Across the last seven full seasons in the Premier League, the team that scored the first goal won the match 69% of the time"

rather higher then 52.2%


https://www.pinnacle.com/en/bettin

[jonnyg]

This may interest a few people > 0-1 HT data added to the opening goal in 0-20 minutes time band Premier league 2008-2009 to 2016-2017

0-1 HT % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%
0-1 HT Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%
0-1 HT Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%
0-1 HT Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%

and 2016-2017 in games 0-1 HT goal 0-20 PL >

1-1 0-2 2-2 2-1 2-2 0-3 1-4 2-1 0-2 2-1 0-2 1-4 0-1 1-4 2-2 1-1 1-1

[jonnyg]

This is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on

1. accuracy

2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >

in an individual league

my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me

[jonnyg]

Premier league in games where the away team opened the scoring in the 21- 30 minutes time band and 0-1 HT game state

last 55


6-13-36 < dont back the home team


0-3 0-1 1-1 1-3 1-2 0-2

and

T HT T+1 FT
Bourne Watford 24 0 1 H48 2 2 at 1-1 Bournemouth were offered at 6/4
Man UTD Liverpool 27 0 1 H84 1 1
WBA Hull 21 0 1 H49 3 1
Watford Palace 26 0 1 H71 1 1
Boro Liverpool 29 0 1 A60 0 3
WHU Arsenal 24 0 1 A72 1 5
Watford Stoke 29 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 24 0 1 H51 3 2
Stoke Bourne 26 0 1 0 1
Man City Southampton 27 0 1 H55 1 1
Hull Stoke 26 0 1 A50 0 2
Stoke WHU 23 0 1 H55 2 1
Palace Stoke 26 0 1 H47 2 1
WBA Watford 27 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Bourne. 28 0 1 A70 1 3
Arsenal Chelsea 23 0 1 0 1
Villa Leicester 28 0 1 H75 1 1
Palace Chelsea 29 0 1 A60 0 3
Bourne. Newcastle 27 0 1 0 1
Norwich Leicester 28 0 1 A47 1 2
Villa Man UTD 29 0 1 0 1
Everton Spurs 24 0 1 0 1
QPR Newcastle 24 0 1 H54 2 1
Spurs Man City 29 0 1 0 1
Newcastle Spurs 30 0 1 H46 1 3
Stoke Southampton 22 0 1 H47 2 1
WHU Chelsea 22 0 1 0 1
Spurs WHU 22 0 1 A62 2 2
Man City Arsenal 24 0 1 A67 0 2
Villa Liverpool 24 0 1 A79 0 2
Sunderland Arsenal 30 0 1 A90 0 2
Arsenal Man City 28 0 1 H63 2 2
Man UTD Swansea 28 0 1 H53 1 2
Fulham Palace 28 0 1 H61 2 2
WBA Stoke 22 0 1 H56 1 2
Man UTD Sunderland 30 0 1 0 1
Everton Palace 23 0 1 A49 2 3
Newcastle Everton 22 0 1 A52 0 3
WBA Fulham 28 0 1 H86 1 1
WBA Liverpool 24 0 1 H67 1 1
Everton Sunderland 25 0 1 0 1
WBA Hull 28 0 1 H88 1 1
Cardiff Arsenal 29 0 1 A86 0 3
Norwich Villa 30 0 1 0 1
WBA Swansea 22 0 1 A83 0 2
Villa Liverpool 21 0 1 0 1
Swansea Fulham 22 0 1 A78 0 3
Liverpool Chelsea 26 0 1 H52 2 2
Newcastle Sunderland 27 0 1 A74 0 3

[jonnyg]

you may be wondering why the mainstream are not looking at the time of the opening goal and I think I have the answer based around loads of DM's across social media asking me where I get my data from >

put it this way if you had the inclination could you scape the time of the opening goal from a data source ????

[Rinoa]

This is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on

1. accuracy

2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >

in an individual league

my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me

Are you able to capitalise on your knowledge jonnyg?

Is your Betfair trading lucrative?

[jonnyg]

This is how I see things after looking at football data for 10 hours a day over the last 5 years < we are seeing betting bots produced to apply strategy without understanding the effect that the time of the opening goal has on

1. accuracy

2, expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis >

in an individual league

my tech skills are very weak which I am seeing as a positive as I have manually collated all the data that interests me

Are you able to capitalise on your knowledge jonnyg?

Is your Betfair trading lucrative?

Betfair banned me a number of years ago ! Long story

[jonnyg]

Fri 28/07/17 Osnabrück
0 - 4
Wehen Wiesbaden View events More info
0 - 1
5' M. Schäffler
0 - 2
21' S. Ruprecht
0 - 3
89 ' P. Funk
0 - 4
90' S. Andrist
Unterhaching
3 - 2
Karlsruher SC View events More info
0 - 1
13' A. Fink (PG)
S. Hain (PG) 24'
1 - 1
1 - 2
38' D. Pisot
S. Bigalke 39'
2 - 2
S. Schimmer 89'
3 - 2

Austria Lustenau
0 - 2
Ried View events More info
0 - 1
19' Í. Durmuş
0 - 2
81' T. Fröschl

Hartberg
3 - 1
Floridsdorfer AC View events More info
M. Fischer 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' O. Markoutz
S. Meusburger 85'
2 - 1
D. Tadic 89'
3 - 1

Tours
0 - 3
Le Havre View events More info
0 - 1
9' E. Assifuah
0 - 2
50' B. Bese
0 - 3
90' J. Fontaine

Orléans
3 - 1
Nancy View events More info
A. Guie Gneki 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
19' P. Eler
A. Gomis 76'
2 - 1
O. Cissokho 89'
3 - 1



your focus should not be on automating your trading / betting but building strategies >

[jonnyg]

If you combine ligue 2 / erste and Bundesliga 3 in games where either the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band or home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and only one game did not produce a goal 80 + minutes

6/7 produced a goal 80 +

Sochaux
2 - 0
Bourg-en-Bresse View events More info
A. Kalulu 7'
1 - 0
S. Daham 51'
2 - 0

[jonnyg]

games in a league where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band and the % that produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes 2016-2017



Championship 44%

Brazil Serie B 2016 43%

England National League / Sweden Allsvenskan 2016 42%

La LIGA 40%

Ligue 2 39%
Ligue 1 / Premier League / SERIE A 38%
Bundesliga / SERIE B / JAPAN J 2016 37%
RUSSIAN 1ST 36%

Spain Segunda/ Iceland Urvalsdeild 2016 35%




League 1 33%
League 2 32%
Bundesliga 2 31%


Finland Veikkausliiga/ Sweden SUPERETTAN 2016 27%

how does the time of the opening goal in a game of football effect expectation of a goal 80 + ????

[jonnyg]

If you follow game state analysis then this game should have grabbed your attention >

Hartberg
3 - 1
Floridsdorfer AC View events More info
M. Fischer 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' O. Markoutz
S. Meusburger 85'
2 - 1
D. Tadic 89'
3 - 1


given the early home goal metric added to 1-0 half time game state in Erste league added to the away fightback in the 2nd half > 1-1

how likely was the game going to end a DRAW ?

[jonnyg]

I want to start by showing you games in Erste where the home team winning 1-0 half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes and the effect on a> accuracy in the 2nd half added to expectation / lack of expectation of the away team fighting back and if they do < how does that effect expectation of further goal production ?


Hartberg
3 - 1
Floridsdorfer AC View events More info
M. Fischer 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
49' O. Markoutz
S. Meusburger 85'
2 - 1
D. Tadic 89'
3 - 1

Austria Lustenau
2 - 0
Wiener Neustadt View events More info
Bruno Souza 10'
1 - 0
Lucas Barbosa 59'
2 - 0

LASK Linz
2 - 0
Wattens View events More info
Fabiano 9'
1 - 0
R. Rep 85'
2 - 0

Horn
2 - 1
Kapfenberger SV View events More info
M. Milosevic 5'
1 - 0
G. Takougnadi 51'
2 - 0
2 - 1
87' E. Budnik

LASK Linz
3 - 1
Kapfenberger SV View events More info
D. Imbongo 4'
1 - 0
Fabiano 68'
2 - 0
R. Rep 79'
3 - 0
3 - 1
87' M. Perišić

Wattens
3 - 3
Kapfenberger SV View events More info
L. Katnik 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
47' Jorge Elias
L. Katnik 51'
2 - 1
B. Pranter 52'
3 - 1
3 - 2
57' P. Schagerl
3 - 3
76' Dennis Nieblas

Kapfenberger SV
1 - 0
Horn View events More info
F. Flecker 7'
1 - 0

Wacker Innsbruck
1 - 1
Liefering View events More info
S. Pirkl 9'
1 - 0
1 - 1
65' M. Berisha

Liefering
1 - 2
St. Pölten View events More info
R. Dwamena 7'
1 - 0
1 - 1
58' C. Dieng
1 - 2
69' Daniel Segovia


Liefering
2 - 1
Austria Lustenau View events More info
Hee-Chan Hwang 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
47' S. Chabbi
Hee-Chan Hwang 60'
2 - 1

Wiener Neustadt
1 - 0
Liefering View events More info
R. Mally 5'
1 - 0

Mattersburg
2 - 0
Kapfenberger SV View events More info
M. Pink 1'
1 - 0
K. Onisiwo 59'
2 - 0

Liefering
4 - 1
Horn View events More info
L. Gugganig 2'
1 - 0
1 - 1
64' K. Hinterberger
M. Honsak 70'
2 - 1
Lucas Venuto 85'
3 - 1
Felipe Pires (PG) 90'
4 - 1

St. Pölten
1 - 0
LASK Linz View events More info
M. Hartl 9'
1 - 0

Wacker Innsbruck
1 - 2
Austria Lustenau View events More info
T. Hirschhofer 10'
1 - 0
1 - 1
89' C. Stückler
1 - 2
90' D. Tadic

St. Pölten
1 - 0
First Vienna View events More info
G. Noel 2'
1 - 0


St. Pölten
2 - 2
Rheindorf Altach View events More info
G. Noel 10'
1 - 0
K. Kerschbaumer 49'
2 - 0
2 - 1
57' J. Aigner
2 - 2
60' D. Luxbacher

Kapfenberger SV
3 - 0
First Vienna View events More info
Ronivaldo Bernardo 3'
1 - 0
Ronivaldo Bernardo 50'
2 - 0
A. Lebedev (OG) 68'
3 - 0


Mattersburg
2 - 0
Liefering View events More info
M. Rodler 3'
1 - 0
T. Röcher 63'
2 - 0


First Vienna
1 - 0
Liefering View events More info
M. Becirovic (PG) 3'
1 - 0


Rheindorf Altach
1 - 0
Kapfenberger SV View events More info
J. Aigner 9'
1 - 0

St. Pölten
1 - 0
Hartberg View events More info
M. Holzmann 5'
1 - 0


First Vienna
3 - 1
Horn View events More info
P. Bichelhuber 10'
1 - 0
M. Becirovic (PG) 74'
2 - 0
2 - 1
81' F. Bauer (OG)
M. Slavov 86'
3 - 1


Grödig
3 - 0
Blau-Weiß Linz View events More info
D. Witteveen 2'
1 - 0
D. Witteveen 62'
2 - 0
S. Nutz 70'
3 - 0

Austria Lustenau
2 - 1
Blau-Weiß Linz View events More info
J. Kampel 10'
1 - 0
H. Dürr 64'
2 - 0
2 - 1
90' C. Stückler (OG)

First Vienna
2 - 1
Rheindorf Altach View events More info
L. Hinterseer 8'
1 - 0
1 - 1
79' J. Aigner (PG)
M. Becirovic (PG) 90'
2 - 1

[jonnyg]

last 26 games in Erste league where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT and only 3/26 ended a draw >

before you start applying a BOT to a strategy you should focus on how the time of the opening goal in an individual league effects ;

1. accuracy

2. expectation of the other team fighting back = survival analysis

3. if the other team does fightbkack = > 1-1 then how will that effect accuracy for the rest of the game ???