Hi All,
Appologies if this has been posted before but I can't find anything relevant.
I wanted to know if when reading market conditions to determine whether to back or lay if it is possible to see if an order will get matched before actually placing it.
Let me paint the picture to make it clearer. a market below.
......................................................BACK | LAY
SELECTIONS........MONEY PLACED | MONEY PLACED
Selection A.......................................3.9 | 3.95
........................................................2000 | 50
Selection B.......................................7.2 | 7.6
..........................................................500 | 2500
The stake i want to place is £5. On selection A I place a lay of £5 on 3.95. On selection B I place a back of £5 on 7.4 (Notice that 7.4 is inbetween 7.2 and 7.6).
I'd like to know what would actually happen when trying to match these two bets. Can I determine if these bets will be matched and why before placing them?
In the selection B scenario, placing a back or even a lay at 7.4, is that effectively jumping the queue and occupying that price and if so does that guarantee getting matched? Also, does the money occupied on these prices determine whether i'll get a bet matched. if i lay £5 on selection A @ 3.95 and as in this scenario there is £50 on it will my bet get matched as its less (covered by £50) or would that the money effectively become £55 and put me to the back of the queue. Or would it be better in a scenario like selection B where i can put in lay at a price occupied by nobody else (such as 7.4) which is yet still above the back price meaning it's not a 'reverse' lay and means putting me at the front of the queue. what would happen, would it definately get matched and why?
Many thanks
Guaranteed Matches
hi gutuami,
yes i know that but (well i guess the thread title is slightly wrong). What i mean is how can you guarantee that you orders will be matched. I'm basically asking if there is a way or can you read the market to see if your bet is likely to get matched, so more or less you know if it's going to get matched. i suppose then you can perfect that understanding and almost gurantee for yourself that you can get all your orders (or most of them) matched.
Is there??
thanks
yes i know that but (well i guess the thread title is slightly wrong). What i mean is how can you guarantee that you orders will be matched. I'm basically asking if there is a way or can you read the market to see if your bet is likely to get matched, so more or less you know if it's going to get matched. i suppose then you can perfect that understanding and almost gurantee for yourself that you can get all your orders (or most of them) matched.
Is there??
thanks
Not sure if you are looking at automation/excel here but from reading the market live then yes, when considered alongside other indicators you can certainly define the probabilities of your order being filled.
You will have to put in the spade work though because it is unlikely anyone who has determined this for themselves will simply give the info freely on here.
I am a teacher by nature and I am willing to tell anyone what I have learned but I am passed the point of explaining exactly what they should do. Not saying that is what the original poster is asking.
So as to point you in the right direction, with your example I would be looking at several factors including the relationship between book%, whether this was a scalp/swing market and their prevailing trends.
You give no information about fill rate, volume, time before off etc. so I am guessing you are thinking automated trading which I don't believe would best exploit such a scenario. It is very difficult to factor in market psychology which changes constantly. I suppose that is why these bots work for a while before they need tweaking.
I have to say though my excel is very limited and my observations are from live trading.
You will have to put in the spade work though because it is unlikely anyone who has determined this for themselves will simply give the info freely on here.
I am a teacher by nature and I am willing to tell anyone what I have learned but I am passed the point of explaining exactly what they should do. Not saying that is what the original poster is asking.
So as to point you in the right direction, with your example I would be looking at several factors including the relationship between book%, whether this was a scalp/swing market and their prevailing trends.
You give no information about fill rate, volume, time before off etc. so I am guessing you are thinking automated trading which I don't believe would best exploit such a scenario. It is very difficult to factor in market psychology which changes constantly. I suppose that is why these bots work for a while before they need tweaking.
I have to say though my excel is very limited and my observations are from live trading.
Yes its for automation. But i guess i'll have to do the leg work. What i was hoping the answer would be is...
..(In this example anyway) .. on selection A on the lay side at odds of 3.95 there is £50 on it.
I was hoping that it could be confirmed that this means that people are wanting to back at 3.95 for £50 therefore offering for me to lay at 3.95 (current lay price). It could be one person or several (lets say five for £10 each) who have put in an order to back at 3.95 (basically what is on the exchange is their 'Reverse' back orders) and that amounts to £50 hence why that appears on the lay side (for us to take up that offer).
Anyway, as they are already offering to back at 3.95 for £50 then i know that if i want to lay for less (lets say £10) i know it will get matched because the money is there already being offered. So if i lay at the current lay price for £10 it means that the first person from the backing queue that already have their placed back orders will get matched with me.
Therefore in simplest terms if 3.95 lay is available it means people are offering to back at that price. Therefore if the money on that price is more than the money i wish to lay then surely i know if i place the lay at that price it will get matched (forgetting anybody also wanting to lay before i get the chance - so low liquidity and fill rates for example).
I was hoping this could be confirmed really and if its the best way to know with any certainty whether your order would get matched or not.
I wanted to know if i completely lost my mind and was talking rubbish in which case i would assume what im saying above is wrong but in fact laying at £10 at 3.95 would simply make me join the back of the queue at that price and make the money on there appear as £60.
I guess i'll have to experiment and try to analysis fully how it really works (it's too fast sometimes ;( but if anybody else wants to add this that would be great.
Thank you very much in any case guys. Perhaps i was hoping for too much.
..(In this example anyway) .. on selection A on the lay side at odds of 3.95 there is £50 on it.
I was hoping that it could be confirmed that this means that people are wanting to back at 3.95 for £50 therefore offering for me to lay at 3.95 (current lay price). It could be one person or several (lets say five for £10 each) who have put in an order to back at 3.95 (basically what is on the exchange is their 'Reverse' back orders) and that amounts to £50 hence why that appears on the lay side (for us to take up that offer).
Anyway, as they are already offering to back at 3.95 for £50 then i know that if i want to lay for less (lets say £10) i know it will get matched because the money is there already being offered. So if i lay at the current lay price for £10 it means that the first person from the backing queue that already have their placed back orders will get matched with me.
Therefore in simplest terms if 3.95 lay is available it means people are offering to back at that price. Therefore if the money on that price is more than the money i wish to lay then surely i know if i place the lay at that price it will get matched (forgetting anybody also wanting to lay before i get the chance - so low liquidity and fill rates for example).
I was hoping this could be confirmed really and if its the best way to know with any certainty whether your order would get matched or not.
I wanted to know if i completely lost my mind and was talking rubbish in which case i would assume what im saying above is wrong but in fact laying at £10 at 3.95 would simply make me join the back of the queue at that price and make the money on there appear as £60.
I guess i'll have to experiment and try to analysis fully how it really works (it's too fast sometimes ;( but if anybody else wants to add this that would be great.
Thank you very much in any case guys. Perhaps i was hoping for too much.