Hi Bluesky
Interesting points.
Re:
'what works for one trader may cause another trader to lose money.' - Agreed. It's all about the detail. For example, some traders have been able to make money consistently from swing trading, whether others lose money consistently, finding that the market normally steam rollers through their position.
Re:
'One will often get conflicting advice from trading forums' - I think this is partly because of imprecise definitions. For example, 'scalping' may mean different things to different people. Also, traders - even successful ones - are often like the proverbial blind man feeling the elephant. They know what has worked for them, and make inferences on the basis of that about the nature of the market. Sometimes those inferences may hold, but sometimes they won't.
There was a trader on this forum who I won't name, who diligently followed the advice of the pros, quoting them in much the way that a biblical scholar might quote the disciples. However, despite being a clearly intelligent guy, he ended up quitting Betfair. I think the mistake he made was to leave his critical faculties at the door (also, he took pride in using stakes that made losing painful, which didn't help - it was like he saw losses as due to an error on his part, rather than a part of the game).
Re:
'It can be a little off putting when you see people posting good returns'. I belong to a dieters' forum on Facebook. When someone posts (usually honestly) that they have lost 13 lbs in their first week, it can make other dieters feel gutted when they 'only' lose 9lbs in their first week. It's irrational, but we humans aren't rational creatures. The same risk applies to people posting high returns here.
Other offputting things about forums are the bitchiness you get when you dare to express a controversial opinion - try constructively criticising one of Peter's videos and see what happens, for example
- and the fact that edges shared are edges lost (for example, I won't be trying to profit from the recent fascinating football data thread, as once a group of traders knows about an edge it's unlikely to last long!).
All that said, occasionally I'll come across something in the forum which triggers an idea. Plus, credit where it's due, some forum members have been very helpful, including sharing ideas in private with me
(in particular, a guy who I still correspond with - I won't name him, but he knows who he is).
Jeff
