A few weeks ago, I can remember following a thread whereby someone was looking to back every horse in running, in every race at huge odds, in the hope it would come back and win. Someone put up some stats over a weeks racing and it looked viable.
My question is. Could you set BA to back every horse at say 100 for 0.10p, 400 at 0.6p and say 1000 for 0.2p
Obviously as your bank grew you would increase the stakes.
Two pound minimum stakes would mean you would need a very large bank, hence the tiny stakes.
Just asking.
Is this possible?
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BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
I doubt very much it is viable long term. In fact, I know its not.
It probably works at certain tracks at certain points in the year but overall it wont work if you just blindly back all outsiders at all tracks every day.
You you can do it yes but betting below your country's minimum amount as set by Betfair is against their policy, so, sooner or later you will get a nasty email, followed by a ban, account closure and more than likely your account funds seized, never to be seen again unless you can afford a good lawyer.
Let us know how you get on.
Goodluck,
PS. Check the small print regarding betting below the minimum amount allowed.
It probably works at certain tracks at certain points in the year but overall it wont work if you just blindly back all outsiders at all tracks every day.
You you can do it yes but betting below your country's minimum amount as set by Betfair is against their policy, so, sooner or later you will get a nasty email, followed by a ban, account closure and more than likely your account funds seized, never to be seen again unless you can afford a good lawyer.
Let us know how you get on.
Goodluck,
PS. Check the small print regarding betting below the minimum amount allowed.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10575
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Yup - past performance isn't a guide to future performance (sounds like a TV advert for a financial adviser?
) But over long periods of time I think that it can be very useful at ruling *out* strategies and knowing what won't work or refining a strategy as time goes on.My feeling is that "What if" stats analysis can be useful for any strategy that places bets based on strict criteria, rather than 'experience' which is much harder to model. If you have the stats for a period of time then you can model it to see how well it would have done (without guaranteeing how it will do in the future).
The strategy that I'm looking at right now (and have been, for a year. Full marks for perseverance?) is to bet on as many horses as possible (from the favourite downwards) where the bet values is sufficient for the current odds so that I make an overall profit if any one of those runners wins, but lose the whole lot if the winner is outside the set of horses I've bet on. For me, the sweet spot is setting a minimum ROI that balances with the percentage of times the winner falls outside my trade set.
So, for me, analysing past performance to see how often the winner is outstide of the top 20%, 30% etc. of runners is useful. I started out thinking that that the eventual winner would be in the top 20% (in terms of their odds placing) a very high number of times. But it's actually 36.84% (over the last 13,150 races, using odds at 5 minutes before the start). So that's useful as it saves me wasting time on trades where the ROI is, for example, just 50%.
Ian
http://docs.developer.betfair.com/docs/ ... ugust+2016BetScalper wrote: ↑Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:18 pm...
You you can do it yes but betting below your country's minimum amount as set by Betfair is against their policy, so, sooner or later you will get a nasty email, followed by a ban, account closure and more than likely your account funds seized, never to be seen again unless you can afford a good lawyer.
...
Ability to place lower minimum stakes at larger prices
In order to allow customers to bet to smaller stakes on longer-priced selections, an extra property has been added to our Currency Parameters – “Min Bet Payout”. As currently bets where the backer’s stake is at and above the ‘Min Bet Size’ for the currency concerned (£2 for GBP) are valid. In addition, bets below this value are valid if the payout of the bet would be equal to or greater than the value of ‘Min Bet Payout’ - £10 for GBP. For example, a bet of £1 @ 10, or 10p @ 100 or 1p @ 1000 are all valid as they all target a payout of £10 or more.
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
Payouts include your stake.