Today's Horse Racing

[Naffman]

Just saw the real time film and though Enfolding won easily

[to75ne]

Just saw the real time film and though Enfolding won easily

never saw it, they took a long time to decide (photo fin)and quite often the longer they take the more likely they decide dead heat, or so i thought

[SeaHorseRacing]

Found a fiddler. This horse IMO is close to a racing certainty tonight.

I have been following this fairly new trainer closely over last 12 months(was a great Jockey as we know) and I have seen a pattern of how he lands a gamble.

5.45 Havens View. Around 15/2. In the summer this horse has had 3 runs from May to July all spread out evenly. What is most interesting is the favorite today Bezos was gelded in September however Havens View was gelded in August, On top of that Haven has had a run from a 150 day lay off in which Bezos is racing from a long break.

There are multiple patterns broken which tell me Havens View is ready.
1) Stepped up from 6f to 7f. I think the horse is bred for further.
2) A long period of break from being gelded, horses gelded with a quick run are not ideal. Gelded August.
3)After long break quick turn around; raced 8 days ago.
4)Progeny has won on the All weather plus USA bread.
5)His last race 8 days ago although finished 9.25 lengths behind leader was his best run to date.


Looking on video evidence Haven breaks very smoothly. What caught my eye is last time out, the Jockey not only broke slowly, there was absolute no urgency to bump the horse forward. At the back of the field he Steve Donohoe stuck him on the inside... there was plenty of space to move forward but decided to then take the horse wide. 1 smack on the arse the whole race.

What I really like about this horse, although broke poorly last time, he settles beautifully.

Gelded to run on all weather first time to produce its best performance without trying, turned around quickly, up in trip on the polytrack today.

Cash in!

[Euler]

How long has Taunton been on 432, pretty sure it wasn't there last year?

Races back 5 at Taunton anyhow.

[SeaHorseRacing]

How long has Taunton been on 432, pretty sure it wasn't there last year?

Races back 5 at Taunton anyhow.

Leicester, Stratford & Taunton have moved over to RUK from ATR.

[dt888]

Found a fiddler. This horse IMO is close to a racing certainty tonight.

I have been following this fairly new trainer closely over last 12 months(was a great Jockey as we know) and I have seen a pattern of how he lands a gamble.

I hope you are right SHR, never follow your tips or anyone elses for that matter but Im going to have a few quid on this one as its christmas

[Trading96]

Best of Dubai should walk this

[Trading96]

Maybe I should predict gubbings.

[Halliday]

Found a fiddler. This horse IMO is close to a racing certainty tonight.

I have been following this fairly new trainer closely over last 12 months(was a great Jockey as we know) and I have seen a pattern of how he lands a gamble.

5.45 Havens View. Around 15/2. In the summer this horse has had 3 runs from May to July all spread out evenly. What is most interesting is the favorite today Bezos was gelded in September however Havens View was gelded in August, On top of that Haven has had a run from a 150 day lay off in which Bezos is racing from a long break.

There are multiple patterns broken which tell me Havens View is ready.
1) Stepped up from 6f to 7f. I think the horse is bred for further.
2) A long period of break from being gelded, horses gelded with a quick run are not ideal. Gelded August.
3)After long break quick turn around; raced 8 days ago.
4)Progeny has won on the All weather plus USA bread.
5)His last race 8 days ago although finished 9.25 lengths behind leader was his best run to date.


Looking on video evidence Haven breaks very smoothly. What caught my eye is last time out, the Jockey not only broke slowly, there was absolute no urgency to bump the horse forward. At the back of the field he Steve Donohoe stuck him on the inside... there was plenty of space to move forward but decided to then take the horse wide. 1 smack on the arse the whole race.

What I really like about this horse, although broke poorly last time, he settles beautifully.

Gelded to run on all weather first time to produce its best performance without trying, turned around quickly, up in trip on the polytrack today.

Cash in!

Interesting pedigree beinga half brother to Roger Varians Wadigor who has won 3 out of his 4 races and was rated 104 when he ran at Royal Ascot in the summer.
Definitely not US bred,and the sire Reckless Abandon was retired from stud as he was classed as sub fertile,so the only crop of his are 2017 2 yo,and has produced a couple of winners from few runners in uk and Ireland.

[Halliday]

Incidently regarding R Hannon 2 yo's that return after a break of 90 days or more ...his last 2yo to meet that criteria was Point Hope which won at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago and backing them blind over the last two years won have resulted in 3 winners and a level stake profit to a £1 stake of over £25, so dont completely disregard them just because they have been off the course awhile . and the stable has had three winners from its last 8 runners ..all 2 y o !!

[Trading96]

Incidently regarding R Hannon 2 yo's that return after a break of 90 days or more ...his last 2yo to meet that criteria was Point Hope which won at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago and backing them blind over the last two years won have resulted in 3 winners and a level stake profit to a £1 stake of over £25, so dont completely disregard them just because they have been off the course awhile . and the stable has had three winners from its last 8 runners ..all 2 y o !!

Do you collect that data yourself?

[Halliday]

Incidently regarding R Hannon 2 yo's that return after a break of 90 days or more ...his last 2yo to meet that criteria was Point Hope which won at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago and backing them blind over the last two years won have resulted in 3 winners and a level stake profit to a £1 stake of over £25, so dont completely disregard them just because they have been off the course awhile . and the stable has had three winners from its last 8 runners ..all 2 y o !!

Do you collect that data yourself?

use proform when researching stats etc ...you can set your own criteria etc

[ShaunWhite]

..all 2 y o !!

As a non horse person, can I ask why them all being the same age makes a difference?

Also how can a stable be 'in form'. I realise these might be complex answers, ...but briefly ?

[Halliday]

..all 2 y o !!

As a non horse person, can I ask why them all being the same age makes a difference?

Also how can a stable be 'in form'. I realise these might be complex answers, ...but briefly ?

Stable form can be due to many factors ... but it's always sensible to check out the form of a stable before making a decision on a Runner .. E.g At the moment Neil Mullholland who had a brilliant season last year with over 100 winners is clearly out of form.. with only 1 winner from his last 50 runners .. with many of his horses starting / drifting to bigger prices than they normally would be and even fancied horses getting well beaten .That won't continue and it will be worth watching for his horses showing improved form

Milton Bradley hadnt had a winner for along time then had 3 on the same card, Emma Bakers small yard has had 4 winners from its last 10 runners. And there are many other instances of trainers being either in form or out of form

Smaller stables who suddenly have long priced horses placed or big price winners are always worth a close look .. most stables " have a golden period " when all their horses run to/ or above their form , then it dips ( with the big stables it's less noticeable )

Larger stables might keep churning out winners , but. Even they have periods when all their horse run well e.g. Richard Fahey is having winners and placed horses at the moment( 3winners from 50 ) so can hardly be said to be out of form , but certainly isn't a stable going thru a " golden period" . Whereas there were periods last season when his runners couldn't stop winning "

Often when a stable has had problems .. might be due to the weather, changing feed , installing different gallops , changing routine , virus, or unknown issues .. if the horses continue to run , then when the stable gets back to normality often the horses are well handicapped

Trainers are creatures of habit and it does pay to recognise this ( e.g Harry Fry has now won the conditional jockeys Hurdle at the Open meetings for the last 4 years)

As regards mentioning the fact that Richard Hannons winners had been 2 yo .. sometimes it can be relevant .. it may be something as simple as the fact that the trainers older horses are badly handicapped , and he has a better crop of 2 yo , or ihis early season his 2 yo may be more forward then the older horses
The reasons are complex but it does happen .
I could go on forever !!

[ShaunWhite]

Thanks for all that, much appreciated. I can see how there might be some factors that actually affect horse performance, but I suspect you'll agree that there's probably also a lot of fairly meaningless punters' folklore around too. 'Small stable wins 3 in a row so is in form' when actually it's just been the way the calender fell or a couple of flukes and unfortunate opposition.

Sorting the meaningful from the meaningless is something people like you and odds compilers are pretty good at, but from a trading perspective it's worth knowing what makes a horse attractive to Joe Soap, whether it actually does or not.

Are there any sites you can recommend that list today's horses to watch (based on all of the above stuff, the facts and the fictions) ? I seem to remember they used to have something like that in the RP but I haven't read a copy for years.