![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)
Anyway.....
I've been looking at the latest hot topic, xG and have questions, perhaps I've missed something. I'm trying to figure out how to use it.
Is comparing xG to Goals simply a measure of how lucky/unlucky a team was on the day?
An example:
Team A vs Team B : 0-1
Team A xG = 2.6
Team B xG = 0.7
Q1. What would you deduce from that?
But add in some further information:
the xG for Team A's last 3 games was 4.8
the xG for Team B's last 3 games was 0.2
Same question,
Q2. What would you deduce from that?
Did Team A actually underperform on the night? 2.6 vs the usual 4.8 or more? Or did they do well but were unlucky?
Perhaps Team B have the best defence in the league and Team A's 2.6 was in context terrific?
Basically, do we have to compare xG with expected xG (xxG?) to get a measure of how well they performed?
As you can see I'm finding it difficult to see how xG on a given game is helping to gauge a teams performance going forward. Have I missed the step that says it's the xG delta that's important and that strength of opposition defence should be included in the calcs somehow?
I want to be a believer but I'm just not seeing it.
(by the way, are crosses included in xG even if the defender gets to the ball first?
I suppose they are or else 'through the middle' sides taking the odd shot would appear to get more chances than a team who's style was to rain in crosses)