My background is in forex trading amongst other things - I certainly had an edge for a good while in forex. But an edge in forex is pretty constrained - like on a particular instrument when X happens, then Y happens X% of the time.
On different instruments the edge either didn't work or had different parameters. Forex is complicated for sure, but each instrument is essentially it's own market with very few variables that change.
I also hear in peter's videos him talk about 'different markets' operating in different ways.
So here's the thing - from what i've seen so far (and i understand that is limited) every market is a different and unique market. You have the course, you have X number of horses, you have X number of jockeys, you have the weather, the 'going' and firmness of the course, the ages of the nags, you have time of day and the time of year and more that i haven't even considered yet.
In the forex market most of these things are fixed with the exception of time / date and economic outlook.
Finding an 'edge' in the forex market is almost impossible - having worked my way through literally thousands of systems over approaching 20 years I can assure you that there is hardly any 'edges' that consistently make money. The winners in forex are discretionary traders that have learned to read the market at the specific time they are trading using nothing but gut instinct and experience (with the exception of highly complicated algorhythmic trading) and money management
Now i come on here and see people saying they have an 'edge' in a sphere with incalculably more variables than forex compressed into smaller timeframes. This surprises me a lot.
so let's define an edge so we agree on the definition - to me an edge is a repeated sequence of events that results in a measurable level of success. basically a step by step, if this happens then do this, if that happens do that, manage the money like this, manage the exit in this way etc. It's basically a recipe of what a trade looks like.
An edge can be fully automated. There are many tools for doing this in forex and of course betangel has this ability too. But I also read that there is no automation known that will extract profits from the market every week / month with consistency if they are just left alone - so that means it's not an edge but relies on discretionary changes by the owner. in effect they just semi automate decisions that you make yourself - great time saver, but not an edge.
To me the horse racing exchange looks more to be the epitome of discretionary trading. you learn by doing and by the passage of time you learn what to trade and what not to trade based on the information presented to you.
That isn't an edge though, that's a learned skill isn't it?
or am i wrong? ..... discuss
