Today's Horse Racing

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Atho55
Posts: 679
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

I have been looking at the SHR selections and wonder if a x check will be useful to anyone. By taking the actual race times achieved over the distance run you can calculate the speed of the horse in that race then apply the same speed to the distance to be run to give you an estimate of the race time.


For example, taking Oneroa v Snaffled
Snaffled.png
Now tomorrows selections
Olaudah.png
I`ve not done enough tests yet to decide if individual runs or the average will be better so can`t offer any advice on the likely winner.
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Atho55 wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:33 am
I have been looking at the SHR selections and wonder if a x check will be useful to anyone. By taking the actual race times achieved over the distance run you can calculate the speed of the horse in that race then apply the same speed to the distance to be run to give you an estimate of the race time.


For example, taking Oneroa v Snaffled
Snaffled.png

Now tomorrows selections
Olaudah.png

I`ve not done enough tests yet to decide if individual runs or the average will be better so can`t offer any advice on the likely winner.
The time for a race is more related to whether or not there's a front runner in it, rather than the quality of horses. There's absolutely no reason to think that a horse that's run a few fast times will do it in another race - it could have been simply running on faster ground.

As the late Phil Bull said, Timefigures tell you how bad a horse isn't, not how good it is.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:48 am
Atho55 wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:33 am
wonder if a x check will be useful to anyone. I`ve not done enough tests yet to decide if individual runs or the average will be better so can`t offer any advice on the likely winner.
The time for a race is more related to whether or not there's a front runner in it, rather than the quality of horses. There's absolutely no reason to think that a horse that's run a few fast times will do it in another race
Thank goodness for conflicting opinions, without them we'd all struggle.

Vive la difference !
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:07 am

Thank goodness for conflicting opinions, without them we'd all struggle.

Vive la difference !
I wouldn't like to imagine what the exchange would be like if we all had the same opinions. :)
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

The main reason why standard times or sectionals are flawed is because of combination of a few variables.

If we can assume every race was run at a strong pace everybody would still work out the speed incorrectly and that is because of two things.

Weight and standard times.

If you have a horse who is rated very low. If that horse was to repeat the same piece of form in a class 6 and a group 1. Even if they finished 100 lengths last in a group 1 there speed figure will always be higher.

A horse running at a pace out of its ability will run to its fastest possible speed... even though they may not be suited by strong pace.

This is why great horses are always lowly rated when winning maidens. It is simply impossible for a horse to run from a maiden pace to win by 20 lengths.

When using standard times you must have different adjustments depending on the class. Having one standard time is flawed.

Again a novice race is always run slower then a maiden. Novices are weighted higher where as maidens are usuallu 9-5 colts 8-11 fillys.
Simonlofc
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:07 am

Ayr is abandoned
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Simonlofc wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:11 am
Ayr is abandoned
...and nothing in Ireland today.

At a time of year when you expect abandonments they often have one all-weather meeting starting at twilight. It would be an empty afternoon if Hereford was lost.
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

I reckon most traders are taking the day off rather than getting stuck into Hereford.
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Dallas
Posts: 23597
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

I've not bothered with racing all week, prefere to use time to catch up on other stuff
StellaBot
Posts: 846
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Interesting posts earlier by SHR and Atho55.
I would like to know if there is a way to download or get results of races into a spreadsheet. The cloumns would be Date, course, distance, going and winning time.
I can do it manually but it normally takes me months for a couple of years form at both UK and IRE tracks.
Maybe some adjustments to Atho55 spreadsheet earlier might be one way.
Any ideas please.
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

StellaBot wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:45 pm
Interesting posts earlier by SHR and Atho55.
I would like to know if there is a way to download or get results of races into a spreadsheet. The cloumns would be Date, course, distance, going and winning time.
I can do it manually but it normally takes me months for a couple of years form at both UK and IRE tracks.
Maybe some adjustments to Atho55 spreadsheet earlier might be one way.
Any ideas please.
Would you not be better off just using a form book, such as Timeform?

Even the free ones will have far more useful information than what you listed above.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

StellaBot wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:45 pm
Interesting posts earlier by SHR and Atho55.
I would like to know if there is a way to download or get results of races into a spreadsheet. The cloumns would be Date, course, distance, going and winning time.
I can do it manually but it normally takes me months for a couple of years form at both UK and IRE tracks.
Maybe some adjustments to Atho55 spreadsheet earlier might be one way.
Any ideas please.
Here you go buddy this should help you on your quest. 10 years of data upto 2016.

http://jmp.sh/GYw5WXb
StellaBot
Posts: 846
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Thats amazing SHR. More than enough info that I require. A lot of time and effort must have went into that.
A small part of the spreadsheet does contain the complete data I need.
However its a pity it doesnt have 2016-2017 form as I only need the last 2 or 3 years maximum form.
Is there a way I could obtain this ?
I would be willing to pay a fee if necessary.
pm me if you wish.
Trading96
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Locker Room Talk massive late drift in the bumper, guessing it must have played up.
jjrrjj
Posts: 197
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:21 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:11 pm
Locker Room Talk massive late drift in the bumper, guessing it must have played up.
I got the video up late, but i dont think it even did.. any one see?

I just saw it fly from 5 to around 17 in about 30 seconds lol
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