Stop loss and risk management

[AlchemistMoz]

Hi! I discovered something amazing two weeks ago by accident. I thought it was an ingenious idea that I had come up with, but after searching google for a while, I realized that it wasn't that much of an unique idea . Swing trading seems to be fairly common... But i'm hooked for now and want to learn more. I've decided to focus only on over/under markets in football at first, in order to learn the basics.

I don't have a proper strategy as of yet, I'm going with back under 1.5 market high after first goal, lay low after 5-10 minutes depending on how the stats look. Climbing up the over/under market for each goal. But what I've noticed is that I have no idea what to do during a game, when things go against me. I've heard of terms such as stop loss and risk management. I've read up a bit, but don't understand 100%. I was wondering if some kind soul here at the forum would help me out.

How should I approach those times when a goal is scored before I green up? Should I cut my losses and put a lay bet on the current odds or wait it out? Or should I enter the next over/under market and put an even higher back bet in order to increase my profits over the loss. And so forth.

Basically, what should I consider for those times when the market moves against me?

[Dallas]

Knowing how far a position could move against should a goal/s occur at certain times will help with formulating your overall plan/strategy.
Soccer mystic can be used for that and a few examples of how to use it can be found in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=12116

[ShaunWhite]

Or should I enter the next over/under market and put an even higher back bet in order to increase my profits over the loss. And so forth.

I'll just pick up on one thing which I see as the most fundamental, never never never increase your trade size to cover a loss. If it wasn't a good idea to go big anyway then why is it a good idea to go big now? You're going to have losing trades, losing days and even losing weeks, treat every situation purely on its own merits and never on the outcome of a trade you did 5 minutes ago. Even a strategy that pays 80% of the time will have losing streaks longer than your bank or the market can accommodate.

If you do try to increase your stake to cover losses you are straying into infamous and deadly world of the Martingale or the centuries old notions of Ruin Theory aka Gamblers Ruin. Most of what people think they have found when it comes to gambling has been known since the time of Christiaan Hudgens (famous probabilist) or the ancient Greeks.

Don't try to reinvent the wheel or it will be a very expensive and short foray into trading. To paraphrase Newton, ""If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants" or go back to the 12th century for the concept of "discovering truth by building on previous discoveries". There's nothing much that's new thinking anymore or that hasn't been tried and tested.

Sorry to bang on about it but it's so important, you'll do OK though if you keep asking questions the way you have. We all had to start somewhere.

[Derek27]

Hi! I discovered something amazing two weeks ago by accident. I thought it was an ingenious idea that I had come up with, but after searching google for a while, I realized that it wasn't that much of an unique idea . Swing trading seems to be fairly common... But i'm hooked for now and want to learn more. I've decided to focus only on over/under markets in football at first, in order to learn the basics.

I don't have a proper strategy as of yet...

Don't get overly excited until you've actually discovered and tested a idea/method/system/strategy that works. Most traders, even the most successful ones, either lose or break even for a few months, until they get to grips with trading. If you are not sure what to do when a goal is scored, there's not really much point in placing the bet in the first place.

The advice Shaun gave you about recovering losses is something you need to fully understand before you even consider gambling or trading.

Use small stakes or practice mode to begin with, and good luck.

[ShaunWhite]

The advice Derek gave you about recovering losses is something you need to fully understand before you even consider gambling or trading.

I think you get the point Moz.

Yep, I agree about practice mode, but put the occassional £2 trade thru to keep Betfair sweet. They get a bit funny if people just use their system to play on or take data (It's BF that are sending you data, not BA). You could probably put £2 in and out a few times with your eyes shut and wouldn't cost you more than a few pennies.

[Derek27]

You could probably put £2 in and out a few times with your eyes shut and wouldn't cost you more than a few pennies.

Going off subject, when I was gambling and wanted to watch a race on Betfair video that I didn't have a bet on, I'd put the minimum fiver on the favourite and trade it, just to gain access to the live video. I usually made a few pennies but you'd be surprised how many times it cost me 25 pence just to watch a race.

[AlchemistMoz]

Or should I enter the next over/under market and put an even higher back bet in order to increase my profits over the loss. And so forth.

I'll just pick up on one thing which I see as the most fundamental, never never never increase your trade size to cover a loss. If it wasn't a good idea to go big anyway then why is it a good idea to go big now? You're going to have losing trades, losing days and even losing weeks, treat every situation purely on its own merits and never on the outcome of a trade you did 5 minutes ago. Even a strategy that pays 80% of the time will have losing streaks longer than your bank or the market can accommodate...

Thanks for the reply, and warning! Unfortunately I managed to chase my losses with bigger bets before I had a time to read your post. I was close to loosing half my br!!! But luckily I came to my senses and managed to get away with "only" 15% loss of total br. It's as you said "If it wasn't a good idea to go big anyway then why is it a good idea to go big now?". Really makes sense.

I tried practice mode, but I've learned so much more doing it for real as every trade has more of an impact. The money I'm playing with is some small earnings from matched betting, so any big losses wont get me too much of a headache.

But what is the standard strategy when it comes to losses? Cash out immediately and accept the loss? Seems sensible enough, if you manage to have more wins then losses. But is this how more experienced traders do it?

Lets say I'm trading the reaction on goals (over/under markets). First goal is scored, I enter the 2.5 market and trade on the reaction. But if the second goal is scored before I have time to make a profit, lets say within 3-4 minutes, what should I do?

Usually (after entering and exiting the 2.5 market succesfully from the first goal), on the second goal, I enter the 3.5 market. So in the above scenario with the 3-4 min gap between the two goals, why not let the 2.5 market bet ride for as long as the 3.5 bet does? This would minimize my losses, but in case of a third goal before the 3.5 market trade is a profit, it would increase my losses even more, since the 2.5 market bet will be lost completely.

In my head this sounds like a fair strategy, since three goals so tight after each other doesn't feel that likely, but my gut feeling is telling me that it's not good enough. And also because that's exactly what happened when I almost lost half my br... But in that case I increased my bets, martingale style, but now I'm thinking about continue business as normal, but also minimize the loss by riding it out for a short while. Any thoughts?

[Derek27]

Lets say I'm trading the reaction on goals (over/under markets). First goal is scored, I enter the 2.5 market and trade on the reaction. But if the second goal is scored before I have time to make a profit, lets say within 3-4 minutes, what should I do?

I don't trade football but I can tell you that if you don't know what to do with your trade when a goal is scored you shouldn't open a trade in the first place!

Opening a trade without an exit strategy is like taking off in an aircraft without knowing how to land it!

It's a common strategy to back the draw and try to lay it because you know as time passes (before the first goal) the price will move in your favour, but when a goal is scored, trading randomly, it will wipe out your profits. You'll only make money if you can find an edge in a particular market or situation.