An interesting article and video:
http://pragcap.com/a-monkey-economy-as- ... al-as-ours
Jeff
Gambling and evolutionary psychology
jeff,
good link
if your into this stuff you might want to do a search on something called prospect theory. the example in your link is well and truly covered in prospect theory. seems people react differently to any given situation, depending on how it is presented to them.
also have a look at the triune theory/model of the brain.
good link
if your into this stuff you might want to do a search on something called prospect theory. the example in your link is well and truly covered in prospect theory. seems people react differently to any given situation, depending on how it is presented to them.
also have a look at the triune theory/model of the brain.
Thanks
You might also be interested in this link:
http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/decisions.pdf
One of its quotes, which is from Warren Buffett, made me laugh:
'Failing conventionally is the route to go; as a group, lemmings may have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press'.
Jeff
You might also be interested in this link:
http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/decisions.pdf
One of its quotes, which is from Warren Buffett, made me laugh:
'Failing conventionally is the route to go; as a group, lemmings may have a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad press'.
Jeff
to75ne wrote:jeff,
good link
if your into this stuff you might want to do a search on something called prospect theory. the example in your link is well and truly covered in prospect theory. seems people react differently to any given situation, depending on how it is presented to them.
also have a look at the triune theory/model of the brain.
if you relate this videos to bf markets than I would add in Option 3. The 2 options have a situation when "you have been given". Now the 3rd option. You lose 100. Your choises:
#1
Take risk
heads lose 100
tails win 100
#2
Play it safe and go to the next market
the idea is that when you're green you behave with more calm as when you're in the red
#1
Take risk
heads lose 100
tails win 100
#2
Play it safe and go to the next market
the idea is that when you're green you behave with more calm as when you're in the red
another good link jeff that reaffirms my belief. after reading quite alot of this stuff over the past nine months or so, i find it quite startling how similiar we seem to be to monkeys in the way we behave. at our very cores we would appear to have very little free will. cant override successful survival strategies that have worked for millions of years.
I came across a good analogy in a book called Trading Chaos (2nd Edition).
Just as water follows down the path of least resistance, so does human behaviour. Our best hope of creating lasting change, therefore, is to change our underlying structure.
For example, if making a losing trade causes you to become disheartened and trade irrationally, then reprogramming your mind so that it doesn't cause you to feel that way can change your destructive behaviour. One way of doing this might be to go into hypnosis, and visualise yourself making a bad trade, then focusing immediately on the next trade, without dwelling on the bad trade or letting it get you down. Sportspeople use these kind of techniques to avoid letting things like bad referee calls put them off their game.
Jeff
Just as water follows down the path of least resistance, so does human behaviour. Our best hope of creating lasting change, therefore, is to change our underlying structure.
For example, if making a losing trade causes you to become disheartened and trade irrationally, then reprogramming your mind so that it doesn't cause you to feel that way can change your destructive behaviour. One way of doing this might be to go into hypnosis, and visualise yourself making a bad trade, then focusing immediately on the next trade, without dwelling on the bad trade or letting it get you down. Sportspeople use these kind of techniques to avoid letting things like bad referee calls put them off their game.
Jeff
to75ne wrote:at our very cores we would appear to have very little free will. cant override successful survival strategies that have worked for millions of years.
sorry jeff i should clarify. i meant in a general sense not specific to trading or flying aeroplanes for example. i meant in the general state of the human race. i agree you can change these built in bias for these almost reflex actions/emotions etc, for specific things,ie trading, flying aeroplanes etc.
I agree that humans have in-built biases towards certain types of behaviour.
And whilst people can learn to manage their emotions and override their irrational and destructive impulses, I think that, in practice, few people come close to being all they can be.
The human mind is immensely powerful - but unfortunately, most people don't ensure their mind works with them, not against them! Perhaps the biases you refer to generally stop people from questioning those biases - a tragic self-sabotage...
BTW, if you're interested in exploring how to get the most out of your mind, I'd recommend the latest edition of a book called The Three Minute Meditator (http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0918 ... Y9RYBEN3H2).
Jeff
And whilst people can learn to manage their emotions and override their irrational and destructive impulses, I think that, in practice, few people come close to being all they can be.
The human mind is immensely powerful - but unfortunately, most people don't ensure their mind works with them, not against them! Perhaps the biases you refer to generally stop people from questioning those biases - a tragic self-sabotage...
BTW, if you're interested in exploring how to get the most out of your mind, I'd recommend the latest edition of a book called The Three Minute Meditator (http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0918 ... Y9RYBEN3H2).
Jeff
to75ne wrote:sorry jeff i should clarify. i meant in a general sense not specific to trading or flying aeroplanes for example. i meant in the general state of the human race. i agree you can change these built this built in bias for these almost reflex actions/emotions etc, for specific things,ie trading, flying aeroplanes etc.
PS I was just reading The Art of War (http://www.artofwarsuntzu.com/Art%20of%20War%20PDF.pdf), and came across this nice quote:
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
PS The following, also from the Art of War, can be applied to the importance of not over-trading:
17. Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.
18. No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight
a battle simply out of pique.
19. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are.
20. Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content.
21. But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life.
22. Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution. This is the way to keep a country at peace and an army intact.
Jeff
17. Move not unless you see an advantage; use not your troops unless there is something to be gained; fight not unless the position is critical.
18. No ruler should put troops into the field merely to gratify his own spleen; no general should fight
a battle simply out of pique.
19. If it is to your advantage, make a forward move; if not, stay where you are.
20. Anger may in time change to gladness; vexation may be succeeded by content.
21. But a kingdom that has once been destroyed can never come again into being; nor can the dead ever be brought back to life.
22. Hence the enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution. This is the way to keep a country at peace and an army intact.
Jeff
Ferru123 wrote:PS I was just reading The Art of War (http://www.artofwarsuntzu.com/Art%20of%20War%20PDF.pdf), and came across this nice quote:
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
Cheers jeff, I will order and attempt to read it. I have a lot of predujice with self help books of this nature. I am an engineer. We tend not to like stuff we naturally consider pseudo science (whether it is or not). We seem to only trust nuts and bolts so to speak.
I read the art of war years ago. At the time I was dealing with several large corporations, and every other dickbrained corporate type, had it on obvious display. It was the must book to quote, and be seen to have read. So I read it to see what these fools (my opinion) were to up to.
It seemed to me the whole point of the book was to know the nature of man (yourself included), and apply that knowledge to gain the best edge in every situation you face. Ignore or fail to understand the nature of man, then your future is solely in the hands of chance.
These corporate types after I assume reading the book and quoting much great wisdom still followed the company line spouting the acceptable mantras, and fawning over the big man/important man. It was all rather pythonesque. The life of brian, “yes we are all individual”.
Not sure what my point is. As you can see I am very opiniated and full of prejudice. But I will give your recommendation ago. Cheers jeff.
I read the art of war years ago. At the time I was dealing with several large corporations, and every other dickbrained corporate type, had it on obvious display. It was the must book to quote, and be seen to have read. So I read it to see what these fools (my opinion) were to up to.
It seemed to me the whole point of the book was to know the nature of man (yourself included), and apply that knowledge to gain the best edge in every situation you face. Ignore or fail to understand the nature of man, then your future is solely in the hands of chance.
These corporate types after I assume reading the book and quoting much great wisdom still followed the company line spouting the acceptable mantras, and fawning over the big man/important man. It was all rather pythonesque. The life of brian, “yes we are all individual”.
Not sure what my point is. As you can see I am very opiniated and full of prejudice. But I will give your recommendation ago. Cheers jeff.
A lot of self-help is bs.
But if you give meditation a proper go, the effects are undeniable (even if they aren't always immediate and the scientific evidence is mixed). Similarly, if you were to listen to a hypnosis recording (a good place to start is Paul McKenna's books), I'd be surprised if you didn't end up feeling chilled out!
I'm a big fan of critical thinking. But there's also something to be said sometimes for trying something out and seeing if it works. Until a few years ago, science said that bumble bees shouldn't be able to fly, so science doesn't know everything!
Let me know how you get on!
Jeff
But if you give meditation a proper go, the effects are undeniable (even if they aren't always immediate and the scientific evidence is mixed). Similarly, if you were to listen to a hypnosis recording (a good place to start is Paul McKenna's books), I'd be surprised if you didn't end up feeling chilled out!
I'm a big fan of critical thinking. But there's also something to be said sometimes for trying something out and seeing if it works. Until a few years ago, science said that bumble bees shouldn't be able to fly, so science doesn't know everything!
Let me know how you get on!
Jeff
to75ne wrote:I will order and attempt to read it. I have a lot of predujice with self help books of this nature. I am an engineer. We tend not to like stuff we naturally consider pseudo science (whether it is or not). We seem to only trust nuts and bolts so to speak.
ferru123.
jeff book arrived.
i dont think this book will agree with me. there are many statements they claim as fact or infer as fact but, they offer no evidence; at best just conjecture derived from flimsy cause and effect.
just under half done. will bash rest out soon.
regards
jeff book arrived.
i dont think this book will agree with me. there are many statements they claim as fact or infer as fact but, they offer no evidence; at best just conjecture derived from flimsy cause and effect.
just under half done. will bash rest out soon.
regards
Fair enough.
I don't agree with all of the philosophical ideas myself (although I found much of it thought-provoking).
But I'd try out the techniques. They do work IMHO.
Jeff
I don't agree with all of the philosophical ideas myself (although I found much of it thought-provoking).
But I'd try out the techniques. They do work IMHO.
Jeff
to75ne wrote:ferru123.
jeff book arrived.
i dont think this book will agree with me. there are many statements they claim as fact or infer as fact but, they offer no evidence; at best just conjecture derived from flimsy cause and effect.
just under half done. will bash rest out soon.
regards