I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_e_biggrin.gif)
If your gambling rather then trading, the first thing you need to accept is are you picking winners or are you picking value bets?
If you're getting angry, whether you're gambling or trading, it's best to stop. You cannot make money on the exchange unless you are calm, focused and thinking straight. It's a psychological problem that everybody has experienced at some time. If somebody's losing money, it's not necessarily the case that his luck's down - he could be using a strategy that consistently loses!mhorro wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:22 amI trade on horse racing but also gamble on horses This has to be the most frustrating week of my life from a gambling perspective. I just keep on getting 2nds and being mugged on the line the usual hard luck stories. So I analysed my results last night and was trying to work out what was going on here. We all have a bad run but this was getting ridiculous! Even my wife was getting frustrated as I screamed at the TV!!!! So I rechecked the races to see if I would pick the same selections or should I say my own software that I wrote many years to analyse form and my selections were exactly the same!
I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )
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In my opinion, and I'm sorry to sound negative, any automated method of rating horses is doomed for failure. Does you automated system take into account that the form of a race run at slow pace is meaningless, and ignore it?mhorro wrote: ↑Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:30 pmHi, Thanks for that certainly a eye opener. I normally bet around 6/1 or under. My method is based on the VDW Method ( Van Der wheil ). I automated these ratings by writing code to interrogate a database that contains all of the horse racing results across the world and is updated everyday. I then data mine using native SQL in stored procedures. It basically slices and dices he data for that day's declarations. I use it also to look for patterns i.e. weight, unexposed horses drop in class. I only back on Handicaps as I love punishment!!!!!!![]()
Anybody who has been into horseracing and populated any of the UK racing forums will know about the VDW method.Derek27 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:55 amMhorro, I just looked up the VDW method (I vaguely remember it from the days of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book) - it's completely bonkers! You can't rate horses by such simplistic methods.
Would you conclude Sizing Europe had more class than Sprinter Sacre when they first met, simply because he's run in more valuable races?
If the Derby had two million added instead of one, would that make the winner any better, and unbeatable on ratings?