I was wondering if what games you can not use for soccer mystic, would the correct score probability be better for tighter matches.
The only reason I ask if that it was completely off for me in regards to the information I was being told, I know cant rely on it to be 100% accurate, but it was miles off.
My example is for Barcelon v Sevilla, predicted odds for a goal in 14th minute for Barcelona are 8.40 though this was nearer 22.0 on the real market, same for if goal was scored in 25th minute, predicted odds for 2-0 were 4.80, yet this was over 15.0 on the real market.
I do realise that all of these factors are determined on the game, the opponents and how the game is unfolding, so basically this tool is not really practical for a team like Barcelona playing at home? is that correct, and what games is the correct score predictor best at working at. Lesson learned for me, but hoping to be able to use the tool for games where I can rely on it being fairly accurate.
Thanks
Soccer Mystic Correct Scores (way off)
We have posted a playlist of videos which show you predictions vs actuals and dicussions on when it should and shouldn't be used. As we are at a new season we are thinking of re-recording these again.
If you are doing it in-play the liquidity has a dramatic effective on the ability to predict, not the matched odds liquidty, as we feed data in from many markets to form the full data. We try to reflect a summary in the signal strength indicator to give you a guide as to if the data is good enough.
We did debate whether to allow the tool to run to the in-play market at all, as liquidty can actually be pretty poor on a lot of matches and that has a determental effect on it's ability. It needs some base point to work from and it can only work with what it's given, it's the old GIGO issue.
We often gather data from most matches each day but sometimes have to pick and choose. If its a market we are monitoring we can look again at the data historically, but unfortunately we spotted this post too late to gather any on this match and this wasn't on the list today.
If you are doing it in-play the liquidity has a dramatic effective on the ability to predict, not the matched odds liquidty, as we feed data in from many markets to form the full data. We try to reflect a summary in the signal strength indicator to give you a guide as to if the data is good enough.
We did debate whether to allow the tool to run to the in-play market at all, as liquidty can actually be pretty poor on a lot of matches and that has a determental effect on it's ability. It needs some base point to work from and it can only work with what it's given, it's the old GIGO issue.
We often gather data from most matches each day but sometimes have to pick and choose. If its a market we are monitoring we can look again at the data historically, but unfortunately we spotted this post too late to gather any on this match and this wasn't on the list today.
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shaunybhoy
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2009 10:26 am
Thanks for the replies, I must add that I did find the correct score indicator fairly accurate for the previous game I used it for, and that was the West Ham v Bolton game, give and take a couple of tics, so I managed to get out with a nice trade on this, which is why I am thinking it will be a better tool to use for more evenly matched games, or games with less volumes of cash flooding in when in-play.
LeTiss I will have a look at the 2.5 over/under market today, see how it goes, thanks.
Thanks BetAngel, I suppose it's just trial and error just now to see all what works best with it, and look forward to any new videos.
LeTiss I will have a look at the 2.5 over/under market today, see how it goes, thanks.
Thanks BetAngel, I suppose it's just trial and error just now to see all what works best with it, and look forward to any new videos.
Hi,
I think that you have to bear in mind what is "going on" in general. At the time you look at Soccer Mystic (pre kick off) you are looking at a price shift prediction based "where the money is" at that moment. From the "match odds point of view it pays to look at the Betfair charts for the general trend. It makes life exceedingly difficult if this information is ignored e.g. expecting Wigan to shorten significantly away to Man U is unlikely regardless of what Soccer Mytic implies. I frequently trade "against" Man U, based upon my personal statistics, but I am rarely able to complete the trade until well into the match as most people are of the opinion that they will win every time, regardless of the situation.
I can't think of a way to apply this concept to correct scores, but it is something to bear in mind,
cheers, P
I think that you have to bear in mind what is "going on" in general. At the time you look at Soccer Mystic (pre kick off) you are looking at a price shift prediction based "where the money is" at that moment. From the "match odds point of view it pays to look at the Betfair charts for the general trend. It makes life exceedingly difficult if this information is ignored e.g. expecting Wigan to shorten significantly away to Man U is unlikely regardless of what Soccer Mytic implies. I frequently trade "against" Man U, based upon my personal statistics, but I am rarely able to complete the trade until well into the match as most people are of the opinion that they will win every time, regardless of the situation.
I can't think of a way to apply this concept to correct scores, but it is something to bear in mind,
cheers, P