I am curious to know if anybody is aware of a Group 3 race that is taking place at Baden Baden in Germany tomorrow at 15.35 (Sunday 29th August). There is a horse running named Overdose (aka The Budapest Bullet) who has not been beaten in 14 outings and has run in several Group 2 & 3 races and was denied a Prix de L'Abbaye win in 2008 by a faulty start.
My question is simply: how would you go about trading this horse. Is there anything special that should factored in, in a unique case like this. I know for sure that there will be huge support for this horse from many punters in Hungary where this horse resides, but I doubt this will be seen on the exchanges, rather just with online bookies. The horse has run only twice this summer since taking over a year off for an injured foot but has done well each time in different conditions but you cannot really say if they have been quality races.
Currently Overdose is priced at 2.5s after being 2.2 this morning with the next competition at 4s and 5s and 14 runners. The ground is currently soft.
Personally, as I live in Budapest myself, and have seen it trounce opposition before it was injured, I will probably just have a punt, but I shall certainly watch the market very closely, although how much volume will there be on Betfair - very low I would have thought.
Is anyone rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of something juicy here, or is it a shrug of the shoulders move on to the next race.
All comment welcome
Unbeaten in 14 races
This is the update to the Baden Baden race with the unbeaten Overdose.
I simply punted on this horse rather than trade and watched the race at my mother-in-law's house. Oh how I wish I had been at home in front of my monitor.
Overdose was the penultimate horse to be loaded into the stalls and simply went mental. The horse threw the jockey twice and after about 8-9 attempts to load the horse without the jockey, it finally went in and the jockey mounted in the stalls. Meanwhile a couple of other horses were getting nervy.
The race finally started (6F or 1000m), Overdose took the lead at the half way post and then completely lost it with 200m to go and the jockey had given up by the 100m mark and eased up, finishing in 7th place.
I punted on Betdaq at 1.86 but I don't know what the SP was but I would hasten to say it was well into the 2s if not higher. A real opportunity missed to get a good lay bet in I think.
Nevertheless my original question remains: how would you deal with an unbeaten horse.
cheers
I simply punted on this horse rather than trade and watched the race at my mother-in-law's house. Oh how I wish I had been at home in front of my monitor.
Overdose was the penultimate horse to be loaded into the stalls and simply went mental. The horse threw the jockey twice and after about 8-9 attempts to load the horse without the jockey, it finally went in and the jockey mounted in the stalls. Meanwhile a couple of other horses were getting nervy.
The race finally started (6F or 1000m), Overdose took the lead at the half way post and then completely lost it with 200m to go and the jockey had given up by the 100m mark and eased up, finishing in 7th place.
I punted on Betdaq at 1.86 but I don't know what the SP was but I would hasten to say it was well into the 2s if not higher. A real opportunity missed to get a good lay bet in I think.
Nevertheless my original question remains: how would you deal with an unbeaten horse.
cheers
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
The biggest problem will be trying to determine how good this horse is in real terms. Obviously he is no slouch having won so many races but it depends on who he is racing against? I would generally look at the times achieved and then try and assess them as best I could. It's not easy because some horses need to dominate their peers but as they step up in class it becomes harder and harder. This can affect times and make it hard to make direct comparisons.
This horse is running over sprint distances and sprinters are generally nervy and twitchy. They are like coiled springs so any problem in the preliminaries is generally reflected in the race. If the horse plays up and refuses to enter the stalls then you have to worry. If they just sweat at the start then it isn't always such a big problem - unless it is not normal (not sweated up before) or if they also start bucking or dropping the jockey. If I see this then I am worried and would cancel my orders.
I cannot assess the previous form properly so it is hard to comment on how best to handle this horse. For example, I know of many good athletes who can win divisional races easily. If you move them up to national or a higher level they can struggle. This can be the same with this horse; it can beat local opposition in a certain grade but when it moves up in grade it can suddenly look ordinary. I did notice that some of the races are shown as "Local Listed Race" and I have no idea how that compares to a normal Listed Race here in the UK or France?
I am not saying this is a bad horse, I am simply saying I cannot really assess it on the information I have found.
This horse is running over sprint distances and sprinters are generally nervy and twitchy. They are like coiled springs so any problem in the preliminaries is generally reflected in the race. If the horse plays up and refuses to enter the stalls then you have to worry. If they just sweat at the start then it isn't always such a big problem - unless it is not normal (not sweated up before) or if they also start bucking or dropping the jockey. If I see this then I am worried and would cancel my orders.
I cannot assess the previous form properly so it is hard to comment on how best to handle this horse. For example, I know of many good athletes who can win divisional races easily. If you move them up to national or a higher level they can struggle. This can be the same with this horse; it can beat local opposition in a certain grade but when it moves up in grade it can suddenly look ordinary. I did notice that some of the races are shown as "Local Listed Race" and I have no idea how that compares to a normal Listed Race here in the UK or France?
I am not saying this is a bad horse, I am simply saying I cannot really assess it on the information I have found.
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TheRiddler
- Posts: 102
- Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:02 pm
I rate horses and previous to the injury Overdose was without exception the best turf sprint horse in the world and if he had been entered into a top race in the world I would have backed him accordingly. Because he has run in 'lesser' races there was many who believed when this horse 'stepped' up he would be found wanting and I would have been relying on this belief. Overdose was a very very serious horse. He may still be but having a 'picky' attitude would be wise.