markkirwan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm
Derek27 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:05 pm
markkirwan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?
By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
I monitored them for the whole of 2016 and noticed that when debit days happened it was usually later on in the day after a profit was made you would only need few losers in a row at the end of the day to show a loss.
My stake aim is 5% of my bank per race (with the divisor set to 1.30) so my aim for the day is 5% as that is the figure it hits, if it ran to 10% then the winning days runs would be shorter.
Have you tried analysing your 2016 results as though the day (for example) started at 3pm and ended at 2-59pm the next day?
You say you win 77% of the time, is there a marked differential between the first half of the day and the second half?
Do you really have losers at the end of the day but not at the beginning?
Something doesn't add up here, but there is absolutely no logic in trading a race because you lost in the previous race, but not trading it when you've won.
If you make a 5% profit per race you would be doubling your bank every 15 races odd!