Cheltenham Festival 2018

[Wolf1877]

Ha, I got stung on that first Cheltenham race.

My personal in house automated form system had identified Summerville Boy as the strongest horse for the going so I placed a larger bet than normal expecting others to see what I can see and the market to shorten only for the market to drift rapidly just before the off and then drift further in the early in play so I bailed out for a 30% loss, only to see that my form assessment was right all along and the bloody thing won. Interesting to see the market manipulation is happening even at these volumes which I really didnt expect!

So basically I called the race right, the market disagreed with me, I bottled it and lost money. I'm definitely leaving Cheltenham to the big boys now.

[Derek27]

I couldn't resist a small last minute 'bet' on that, simply because I did a YTS straight from school at a placed called 'Summerville'

So did I, £25 per week to do somebody else's job for him.

You must be no older than me as I was on the very first YTS.

[Derek27]

Ha, I got stung on that first Cheltenham race.

My personal in house automated form system had identified Summerville Boy as the strongest horse for the going so I placed a larger bet than normal expecting others to see what I can see and the market to shorten only for the market to drift rapidly just before the off and then drift further in the early in play so I bailed out for a 30% loss, only to see that my form assessment was right all along and the bloody thing won. Interesting to see the market manipulation is happening even at these volumes which I really didnt expect!

So basically I called the race right, the market disagreed with me, I bottled it and lost money. I'm definitely leaving Cheltenham to the big boys now.

I learnt from my gambling days, the market doesn't often agree with you because everybody looks at a race from a different angle.

[brimson25]

No money in the 2nd race 30 mins out

Is that because Footpad is dominant in the market, but not quite dominant enough for people to go nuts on it? And that's such a small field? Interesting anyway.

[Wolf1877]

Ha, I got stung on that first Cheltenham race.

My personal in house automated form system had identified Summerville Boy as the strongest horse for the going so I placed a larger bet than normal expecting others to see what I can see and the market to shorten only for the market to drift rapidly just before the off and then drift further in the early in play so I bailed out for a 30% loss, only to see that my form assessment was right all along and the bloody thing won. Interesting to see the market manipulation is happening even at these volumes which I really didnt expect!

So basically I called the race right, the market disagreed with me, I bottled it and lost money. I'm definitely leaving Cheltenham to the big boys now.

I learnt from my gambling days, the market doesn't often agree with you because everybody looks at a race from a different angle.

TBH Derek I felt the market was more manipulated away from me than actually disagreeing through logical movemengt. Basically Summerville Boy raced with Kalashnikov at Sandown in Heavy going on 6th Jan, and recorded a very fast time for heavy going with Summerville edgeing out Kalashnikov. Then the feat was repeated today on Heavy ground with a 1, 2. Sometimes it's not rocket science is it? I guess this is what Timeform had picked up on too.

[ruthlessimon]

TBH Derek I felt the market was more manipulated

Sometimes it's not rocket science is it?

Why have a stoploss on an intrinsically based position? - (assuming nothing fundamentally changed with the horse), seems silly imo

[Derek27]

It's much harder to manipulate big markets like these because of the sheer amount of money in them, but there are just so many angles of looking at a race. As SHR posted, the Racing Post went for Getabird and a lot of people would have been on the front two.

[Euler]

Generally happy with this start, I think the markets are behaving themselves within expected bounds so far.

[ShaunWhite]

Generally happy with this start

Shhhh. I don't believe in fate but don't tempt it just in case.

[Dallas]

Generally happy with this start, I think the markets are behaving themselves within expected bounds so far.

Y, I started extra cautious this year given last years markets and markets in general of recent months

[Wolf1877]

TBH Derek I felt the market was more manipulated

Sometimes it's not rocket science is it?

Why have a stoploss on an intrinsically based position? - (assuming nothing fundamentally changed with the horse), seems silly imo

I didnt have a stop loss RS, I manually traded out. I expected the Sommerville to gradually shorten when I backed it and was caught off guard by just how quickly it drifted from 9.8 out to about 15 just before the off. I wasnt planning to gamble on Sommerville in a field of 20 but my automated fundamental analysis just boosted my confidence (incorrectly it turned out) that the horse was unlikely to significantly drift in a market I expected to be as well studied as Cheltenham. Basically I've not traded Cheltenham or a large meeting before and I was unprepared for the sudden volatility. If I'd been trading an Irish market I would have been expecting it and far more on my toes and traded out quicker. As I've said Cheltenham is definitely not for me this year and from this point forth with be purely observational.

[Derek27]

Generally happy with this start, I think the markets are behaving themselves within expected bounds so far.

Coo Star Sivola.jpg

[ruthlessimon]

I was caught off guard by just how quickly it drifted from 9.8 out to about 15 just before the off.

I wasnt planning to gamble on Sommerville in a field of 20 but my automated fundamental analysis just boosted my confidence

See imo what you've just done is demonstrate why it's wrong to blame manipulation.

Your entry was based on fundamentals, but your exit on technicals

15 to a pure fundamentalist would've been an amazing price, no matter how it got there (if nothing changes with the horse)

[dragontrades]

Faugheen looks interesting here

[Derek27]

Place markets are trading okay if you want to avoid the congestion of win markets.