Please can you help me? I am close to depression

[LeTiss]

Yeah fair enough, I clearly didn't fully understand what he was saying.

Having a £5000 bank and sticking it all on a single trade is not advisable at all

[Derek27]

I am wary of slating our foreign posters, because to engage on a forum in a language that isn't your natural tongue is admirable.

I welcome talking to anyone, from anywhere on this forum. But it seems okay for him to slate us while we're trying to help, effectively calling some of us liars for claiming to be in profit. I don't think anything is lost in translation regarding 90% of us in the red!

[spreadbetting]

He's probably only saying what most people on the forum are thinking anyway, Derek. Betfair's own stats aid about 5% won long term so he's overestimating our abilities if anything

[Derek27]

I think you're missing the point. He's asking for help/advice but at the same time attacking us for making false claims, even though nobody actually said they're making $1500 a month!

[Lucacrebbe]

Hello guys.

With a Vpn yesteraday I was able to go to betfair.com

What a wonderful place! Odds with a so great liquidity...

I am not registered there, I just wanted to see the odds and the liquidity of the website.


Anyway you are right guys, it's not advisable to bet a stake of 5000$, regardless of how much talented you are.


Anyway the discipline is the biggest problem.

Yesterday I was paper trading on betafir.com the match Wozianky vs Puigi

Lost a lot...... (it was only a simulation, no real money)


Basically I made 3 good scalpings with a stake of 1000$ and I was able to get confortably 150$ (simulation...so no real money)

At the end of the first set Wozniaki was priced at 1,05

The first set ended 6-0

So I went all in in Wozniaki (1000$ at 1.05 price)

Wozniaky lost the second set , and then the match.


What has been my error?

Well:

- Greedy.

The discipline is so important, I have to improve this aspect of me if I want to profit every month of 30%-40% on a stake of 1000 $


If you don't have discipline, this game can eat us alive.

30% at month is relativly low risk tought.


I don't know no other investiment which yelds 30% at month



THE PROBLEM IS THAT EVEN ON BETFAIR.COM, YOU CAN'T SCALE IT IP SO MUCH.......


For example If I would like to stake 20 k in a single bet, chances I would have been ruined, are really HIGH, because of the lack of liquidity (Betafair.com) for that kind of big stakes (20k)

[Derek27]

If other people have problems with discipline, it's not my case.

Anyway the discipline is the biggest problem.

Yesterday I was paper trading on betafir.com the match Wozianky vs Puigi

Lost a lot...... (it was only a simulation, no real money)

.....

What has been my error?

Well:

- Greedy.

Luca, I don't mean to sound patronising, but to be a successful trader you have to understand your strengths and weaknesses. One minute you consider yourself a highly talented and disciplined trader - the next, discipline is your biggest problem!

There's a lot of advice on this forum regarding discipline and the limitations of practice mode. Please bear in mind that practice mode is completely useless for testing profit/loss of large bets.

Basically I made 3 good scalpings with a stake of 1000$ and I was able to get confortably 150$ (simulation...so no real money)

It's unlikely you would have made that profit if you were trading for real. It's possible only $30 would have been matched in real life - the software won't know. It's also possible that a $1000 bet placed on the exchange would have moved the market and none of it would have got matched.

Discipline

Emotional roller-coaster

Practice mode - in play realism

Using practice mode responsibly

[Lucacrebbe]

It's unlikely you would have made that profit if you were trading for real. It's possible only $30 would have been matched in real life - the software won't know. It's also possible that a $1000 bet placed on the exchange would have moved the market and none of it would have got matched.

It' unlikely?

There was a back offer at 1.30 for Wozniaki of 7000$ and you say '''it's unlikely it to be matched'''?


The profit of 150$ was very confortambly and low risk (at the least for me)

I scalped when Wozniaki was 30-0 , knowing she would have win the game. (I know how she plays tennis, I have seen a lot of tennis game when she played , plus she's a beutiful girl, and this is important when trading)

As I said , I don't care about scalping with tecnical analisis or order book metods, I relay my choises purely based on fundamental analysis

[weemac]

The 'hot chick' methodology has won the argument for me.

[Lucacrebbe]

Tonight I' am going to paper trading (simulation) Svitolina VS Daria Gabrilova.

I don't trade with real money because:

1) It's not good to trade at Betfair.it with such low liquidity... I would earn not so much and the maximum stake I could match is 100$ without having to worry about hig spread and huge loss/ low reward

2) I can't trade on Betfair.com, so I can only simulate a trade (no real money).


My forecast is that Svitolina (another beutiful girl) will obv win against Gabrilova.
She has made a wonderful match against Osaka.

Strategy: to profit from this match you just need to wait for the moment in which Svitolina is in difficulty and then back her.

Avearage Svitolina odds will range from 1,05 to 140 (maximum odd)

Any odd between 1,05 and 1,40 is a sure profit.

This is not a financial advice, just trade using your own strategy, never follow advices on line!


Svitolina is good at service.

Gabrilova is not so costant, but she has moment of good tennis... but nothing to worry about cause Svitolina is a superior tennis playerin compared to her.

Stake I will use is 1000$ (it's a SIMULATION , so no real money)

I think I will able to earn from 40 to 80 $ (simulation, so no real money) confortably and with a good risk management.

My bank pays me 0,02% per year ..

[Dallas]

At the end of the first set Wozniaki was priced at 1,05

The first set ended 6-0

So I went all in in Wozniaki (1000$ at 1.05 price)

Wozniaky lost the second set , and then the match.


What has been my error?

The only people backing in that situation will of been gamblers/punters, it was not a 'Trading Opportunity' just about every serious or successful trader will of been looking at laying only

You risked $1000 to win $50 but only if she won the 2nd set

If you layed her at 1.06 (for the same $1000 risk) even if she stumbled or faced a break point her odds would of drifted a few ticks, if they drifted to just 1.09 which was hightly likely if facing a break point you could of traded out and made $450 (9 times the amount just through facing a break of serve) perhaps as early as the 1st game of the 2nd set!

Had she lost the 2nd set her odds will of gone out to around 1.35, which would of given you around $3600 profit (72 times that $50 amount you were hoping to win by backing her @ 1.05)

So ask your self in this situation if the match was played out 72 times would Wozniacki of won the 2nd set all 72 times?

Trading tennis is about finding those Risk Vs Reward situations and putting yourself on the right side of them

Have a look at the today's tennis thread and a few of the past grand slam threads, there are tons of graphs which show the wild price swings you get from a tennis match, rarely will a price just trade straight down to 1.01 from its starting price.

[Lucacrebbe]

I just saw the odds of Gabrilova on Betfair.

She's priced at 6.

Ridicoulous.

First I bak her with 10$ pre-match, because this odd will be lower during the match.

Then I will just wait for the tennis match to begin. If Daria Gabrilova will be the first to serve and I see that she make the first point (15), then I will back her with 100$

If she will win the first game the odds will be lower = first profit achieved.

If will be Svitolina first to serve, I will simply wait.

Wait and brainstorming is all when it comes to trading

[Lucacrebbe]

The only people backing in that situation will of been gamblers/punters, it was not a 'Trading Opportunity' just about every serious or successful trader will of been looking at laying only

You risked $1000 to win $50 but only if she won the 2nd set

If you layed her at 1.06 (for the same $1000 risk) even if she stumbled or faced a break point her odds would of drifted a few ticks, if they drifted to just 1.09 which was hightly likely if facing a break point you could of traded out and made $450 (9 times the amount just through facing a break of serve) perhaps as early as the 1st game of the 2nd set!

Yes, I have been very stupid in that situation.

[ShaunWhite]

never follow advices on line!

I don't think I'll be following your advice, but you should certainly follow some of the advice people are giving you here.

[Derek27]

(I know how she plays tennis, I have seen a lot of tennis game when she played , plus she's a beutiful girl, and this is important when trading)

I trust you are referring to seeing a lot of her games?

[Lucacrebbe]

Anyway statics suck sometime.

Let's take a look at the match of Wozniaki v Monica Puigi

Wozniaki had win against her 4 times to 1

So statistically she had to win yesterday... statistic was in my favour.... I saw how it ended.