Al Zir was an expensive colt and IMHO he was over faced by connections. He is clearly talented but does not appear to be up to Group 1 class. He was way back in the Derby and to be honest I think he's been very disappointing. I wonder if there has been a problem with him and if connections are having to nurse him along? I am amazed he is favourite for this race but I can understand why he priced so low. Understanding is one thing, accepting it is quite another!
On form this horse should not be favourite, Wigmore Hall should be and but for doubt about him handling the forecast ground, he would be favourite. Actually I should have said he would still be favourite but he's drifted and Al Zir has shortened in. We will have to listen for going reports and take times for the earlier races as this will give us a big clue.
I am not even sure if Al Zir is 100% ready for this race and I wish there was more public info from the Godolphin yard. I heard that they were trying to get him back to the course and this would be a way to do it. It's a bit like match fitness for a footballer so th price of 2.76 is skinny enough. I mentioned a potential problem with him, did he have an injury? Perhaps he has not progressed well from his 2yo day? I know that is all speculation but I cannot disprove it so the price seems crazy to me
One thing I have noticed is this horse holds an entry for the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket so perhaps connections as using this as a stepping stone or testing ground? If the ground ends up better than expected then Al Zir will offer no value and I would prefer Wigmore Hall. To be perfectly honest this is a tight little conditions race and there is only 5-7 lbs between them.
Earlier in the year I mentioned Myplacelater but she disappointed. I disagreed with John Francome when he said she would handle undulating ground but perhaps he was correct. She is not without a chance and at 16-17 she is over priced. I could also give a squeak to Black Spirit but I think he should be 12 and not the 9 on offer.
I would prefer Wigmore Hall IF the ground was quicker but if not then I would not want to take 2.74 about Al Zir. My hope would be that other punters pick up on the concerns about fitness and a possible problem and it drifts out. If the ground comes good then expect money for Wigmore Hall.