Park Hill Stakes - which ones will stay?

[JollyGreen]

There aren't many races over 1m6f for fillies so this is a tricky race to assess. I try and look at pedigrees to see if that will help but most of these are likely stayers or definite stayers.

Polly's Mark should stay longer than the Mother in Law but she always managed to find trouble in running. If I knew that Richard Hughes would bounce her out in front and make it a true test then I would be very keen on her chances. If he tries to bury her in the pack then she will most likely perform her polyfilla act and need a lot of luck in running.

Eastern Aria has already beaten Polly's Mark twice so unless Richard Hughes rides as I would like then there is no reason to believe this form will change. I like the chance of this horse but her price is below the 8-9 that I see as value.

There are a few horses in this race that I believe would not stay this trip based on pedigree and stats but we have to be careful in case they crawl and then turn it into a sprint finish. Rumoush offers no value at 10. She was a flop in the 1000 guineas and her breeding suggests she was more suited to that trip or 10/12f. There is a lot of talk about Simmering Surf but that is another who offers no value at 11 as I am not sure she will stay this trip. Brushing also looks a dubious stayer but she's at 25. Middle Club is on the cusp, she might stay but she might not so at 20 she is not great value.

A couple of horses at big prices that may improve for this step up in trip are Warling at 40 and Snoqualmie Girl at 50.

Meeznah is a worthy favourite and if she runs her race she will take a lot of beating. 2.00 in the place market seems to be decent value to me for horse priced at 4.9 in the win market!