ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:37 pm
With all due respect I don't see any application of maths, it's just picking random profits and stops. You will be very very lucky to have found a magic combination and the pl from your last 60 races (ie almost zero) shows its not quite as easy you might have hoped. I'd never deter someone from trying but I'd use your random strategy as an opportunity to learn about the fundamentals.
The markets are brutally efficient, I'd guess that after 500 races you'll find that you are in loss by approximately the amount of commission you've paid.
The stops are not exactly random. I have two Servants that I've set up to take me out at very specific points. I was finding that they were working reasonably well on the longer races. However, on the shorter races I find it harder to sit back and let them get on with it due to the volatility of the prices and this causes me to intervene to try to get any scrap of profit that I can before it goes red - hence on the shorter races I'm winning less on my winners but losing the same on my losers as I would on the longer races.
So I think it's fair for you to say that my profits and stops on the Flat races are random but on the Jump races I'd argue that they are not because I have been letting the Servants deal with the Jump races unaided (or unhindered) by human intervention.
You also make a very fair point about the poor performance of my system over the last 60 races. The best part of the graph is without doubt the first 20 races and the most interesting thing about that section of the graph is that almost all of those races were jump races.
Races 1-20: 17 Jumps, 3 Flats
Races 21-40: 14 Jumps, 6 Flats
Races 41-60: 13 Jumps, 7 Flats
Races 61-80: 11 Jumps, 9 Flats
Races 81-100: 13 Jumps, 7 Flats
I have a 78% strike rate on the Jump races and just a 58% strike rate on the Flat races (55% on the 5-6 furlong ones). A strike rate of roughly 66% on this is break-even, I think.
All of the races in the next 20 will be Flat races and I very much expect to take a hit because of that based on the limited data I've gathered so far.
I never thought it would be easy though. If I thought it would be easy I'd be playing these trades with a far bigger bank than I am doing - I'd have kicked off with £100 or £200 in my bank if I were sure of my theories. I think the small bank I am using is a reasonable reflection of my confidence (or lack thereof) in my system.
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)