Hi,
Do many greyhounds ranked 4, 5, 6 win many races in a day ?
I presume because they are ranked outsider's, then probably not.
Cheers,
Greyhound's By Rank
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Where is this ranking status coming from? The odds, trap number? Greyhound racing throws up just as many shocks as horse racing and I'd guess the odds of winning are in line with the Betfair odds.
- BetScalper
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I meant ranked by odds.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:41 amWhere is this ranking status coming from? The odds, trap number? Greyhound racing throws up just as many shocks as horse racing and I'd guess the odds of winning are in line with the Betfair odds.
So, the 3 in the race with the highest odds etc.
Cheers,
- northbound
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A few years ago I used to bet on the 2/3 dogs with the biggest odds.
Long term I didn’t profit.
Long term I didn’t profit.
- MemphisFlash
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dogs that are ranked 4, 5 and 6th come in more than you would imagine.
if you are planning to lay these in some sort of strategy beware, as they will wipe you out.
if you are planning to lay these in some sort of strategy beware, as they will wipe you out.
- BetScalper
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I was planning on dutch backing them.MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:04 pmdogs that are ranked 4, 5 and 6th come in more than you would imagine.
if you are planning to lay these in some sort of strategy beware, as they will wipe you out.
- MemphisFlash
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whatever you are trying to do a bit of maths is in order.
a dog has a 1 in 6 chance of winning whether it is the favourite or the donkey (dog)
so at best your strategy will only be 83% efficient.
now that 17% could potentially wipe you out.
You should be looking for a strategy that is 90-95% all the time.
i have several bots that come within this range and none of them invlove
Dutch backing the 4th, 5th or 6th
a dog has a 1 in 6 chance of winning whether it is the favourite or the donkey (dog)
so at best your strategy will only be 83% efficient.
now that 17% could potentially wipe you out.
You should be looking for a strategy that is 90-95% all the time.
i have several bots that come within this range and none of them invlove
Dutch backing the 4th, 5th or 6th
This implies laying anything under 6 or backing anything above 6 will bring long term profits and that the ability of all dogs is equal and that the odds are therfore wrong and irrelevant.MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:15 pmwhatever you are trying to do a bit of maths is in order.
a dog has a 1 in 6 chance of winning whether it is the favourite or the donkey (dog)
If thats what you mean then i would disagree with your statement
- MemphisFlash
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it doesnt matter what the odds are, each dog that is entered in the race Statistically has a 1 in 6 chance of winning
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Memphis sometimes inhabits a world of his own.
You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
I think nigel stuck up some excel webscraper a while back to automate it.
You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
I think nigel stuck up some excel webscraper a while back to automate it.
He is basically saying if I back a dog in every race tomorrow at odds of 11 with £10 I will be around £1000 up at the end of the day
If only it were that easy!
Just thought I would point it out before sombody with little experience takes it at face value and loses a load of money
If only it were that easy!
Just thought I would point it out before sombody with little experience takes it at face value and loses a load of money
- MemphisFlash
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- Location: Leicester
You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
[/quote]
thats a lot of downloading
[/quote]
thats a lot of downloading
- BetScalper
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Hi,
Do certain types of races throw up more outsiders winning than the top 2 in the odds ?
Like OR or other grade level ?
Where would I find that information from ?
Cheers,
Do certain types of races throw up more outsiders winning than the top 2 in the odds ?
Like OR or other grade level ?
Where would I find that information from ?
Cheers,
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hi all,
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,
The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)
The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.
Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.
Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.
As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !
Have a nice day!
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,
The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)
The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.
Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.
Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.
As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !
Have a nice day!