What would happen ?

[BetScalper]

As the topic subject indicates...

What would happen to say an everyday bog standard horse racing market if someone placed a lay order on the favourite for £1 million...

- Would the favourites price be held up until the off
- Would the market go haywire
- Would BF suspend the market before the off
- Would my PC go into meltdown

Just curious as to what people think/know what would happen ?

And no, I am not planning on dropping that kind of money on the last race of the day.

[Derek27]

Depends on what price. If the favourite's trading around 3.0 and the order was put in at 3.2 it would probably hold the price up until the off. At 3.5 to 4.0 I think the gamblers would tuck in but there may not be enough back money to eat the entire order. But there will be a price, maybe 5.0 or higher where there would be a stampede to get on and the million will go.

That at least is what I think the human outlook would be, but with so many bots reacting to different variables the market could well go haywire!

[BetScalper]

Depends on what price. If the favourite's trading around 3.0 and the order was put in at 3.2 it would probably hold the price up until the off. At 3.5 to 4.0 I think the gamblers would tuck in but there may not be enough back money to eat the entire order. But there will be a price, maybe 5.0 or higher where there would be a stampede to get on and the million will go.

That at least is what I think the human outlook would be, but with so many bots reacting to different variables the market could well go haywire!

Interesting.

I have seen an odds on favourite move off a cliff when someone dropped 25k on it.

Wonder what the bookies would do if they were in the process of squaring their book% and suddenly someone dropped a stupid mega amount on one side or the other. I guess they would try and counteract it but how far would they go before giving up the ghost ?

[ANGELS15]

Isn't there some kind of exposure limit per account holder? Around £5k if I recall? To put in a lay order of £1m you would need a massive team of people? Or am I missing something? perhaps someone would clarify? I assume if there are exposure limits for the average punter, bookmakers or large proffesional punters would have different limits. In any event if a lay order of that size could be placed it must surely push the price out. Possible Befair would suspend the market thinking it was suspicious unless it was a market like Cheltenham.

[Euler]

You can get your exposure limit raised by Betfair, I've got essentially got an unlimited exposure limit.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Just cal Betfair and ask to raise your exposure limit. They will do this no problem.

[MemphisFlash]

to get your limit raised you must first have close to your new amount in your account.
for example if you want a limit of £10000, you must first have approx £9000 in your account. you then
talk to customer support and discuss what you would like your new limit to be.
At the end of the day it is at their discretion if they put it up or not.

[iambic_pentameter]

You can get your exposure limit raised by Betfair, I've got essentially got an unlimited exposure limit.

Euler,

I remember reading this article in the FT which mentioned you had a six figure position at Royal Ascot:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb69df78-286 ... 144feabdc0

In this instance, how would you manage the risk of Betfair potentially going down (not that it ever does!)

We all know that Take SP offers a safety net but is it still viable with that type of sum?

Iambic

[LeTiss]

I suppose we have seen situations approaching this with the 'Mad Bomber'

[Euler]

Bear in mind my overall exposure will be a part of that, it could be 10 trades or more. I use SP but it would heavily distort SP at those stakes, even broken down. But it's better than nothing if the site crashes. I just take that risk.

So far this year my biggest will have been somewhere between double and triple that I would think.

[LeTiss]

I think somebody could possibly get away with such a figure on a major football match, where XM across connected markets were in force.

[Derek27]

Depends on what price. If the favourite's trading around 3.0 and the order was put in at 3.2 it would probably hold the price up until the off. At 3.5 to 4.0 I think the gamblers would tuck in but there may not be enough back money to eat the entire order. But there will be a price, maybe 5.0 or higher where there would be a stampede to get on and the million will go.

That at least is what I think the human outlook would be, but with so many bots reacting to different variables the market could well go haywire!

Interesting.

I have seen an odds on favourite move off a cliff when someone dropped 25k on it.

Wonder what the bookies would do if they were in the process of squaring their book% and suddenly someone dropped a stupid mega amount on one side or the other. I guess they would try and counteract it but how far would they go before giving up the ghost ?

Bear in mind that bookies always lay the favourite to make a loss. The reason for this is that the favourite is always backed disproportionately, i.e. an even money favourite will take up much more than 50% of the book. The bookies know that it's over-backed and poor value so it makes sense to take it on.

[mobius]

Hexham 3.45 - Birch Vale (93% traded BF, 60% of betting according to ATR) currently at 1.45 BF. I can handle my exposure down to 1.02 - I do so hope you are right.