Betfair Reduction Factor

[homeboy]

Hi,

Just wanted to throw a question out there and see what others experiences are on BF Reduction Factors. Including the evening card at Wolves, there were at least five horses withdrawn from races yesterday, the one that caused me sadness was Tajneed in the Ayr Gold Cup and I’m struggling to understand why.

I had laid Tajneed in a book at 50 ie 2% so when the race started and ran without Tajneed I was looking at a pleasant green book all the way to the race being suspended at the 6 furlong finish.

A Reduction Factor of 2% was subsequently applied and a profit turned to a loss. Yet if I’ve laid a runner at 2% of a book, shouldn’t the 2% reduction in the odds of the remaining runners compensate for the voided bets on Tajneed or is the reduction 2% of the remaining 98% ie 1.96%.

OK I admit I didn’t pay enough attention at school and if Betfair can’t reconcile their books prior to the event finishing perhaps the point is academic, but I’m baffled.

Cheers,
Andy

[spreadbetting]

No deductions are applied if the reduction factor is less than 2.5%. All they've done is voided the bet on Tajneed so effectively you've laid around 98% book. Bit of a pain but can work in your favour at times if the reduction factor is higher than the % you've laid at.

Have to keep an eye out for the non runners as people will manipulate the prices hoping to bring bots out to play looking for risk free money

[JollyGreen]

Hi,

Just wanted to throw a question out there and see what others experiences are on BF Reduction Factors. Including the evening card at Wolves, there were at least five horses withdrawn from races yesterday, the one that caused me sadness was Tajneed in the Ayr Gold Cup and I’m struggling to understand why.

I had laid Tajneed in a book at 50 ie 2% so when the race started and ran without Tajneed I was looking at a pleasant green book all the way to the race being suspended at the 6 furlong finish.

A Reduction Factor of 2% was subsequently applied and a profit turned to a loss. Yet if I’ve laid a runner at 2% of a book, shouldn’t the 2% reduction in the odds of the remaining runners compensate for the voided bets on Tajneed or is the reduction 2% of the remaining 98% ie 1.96%.

OK I admit I didn’t pay enough attention at school and if Betfair can’t reconcile their books prior to the event finishing perhaps the point is academic, but I’m baffled.

Cheers,
Andy

Hi Andy

Just a quick heads up on laying horses/bookmaking. I have a simple rule these days and I don't make a book if there is a horse in the market with no reduction factor. The general price guide is ~40 but it can change according to price movements, genuine non-runners (before the preliminaries)so you have to be vigilant.

When the NH season hits full stride the risk is lowered because it is much less likely for a horse to be withdrawn not under starter's orders. It does happen but they don't have stalls to enter.

I know it's a bit after the unfortunate event at Ayr but it should help in the future.

[homeboy]

Guys,

Thanks for the input, I've now read the Betfair T & C's on withdrawals and reductions, hadn't appreciated that below 2.5% = no reduction.

Over time it evens itself out, swings and roundabouts, but still trying to find a profitable angle when a horse is withdrawn or likely to be withdrawn.

Failing that, roll on the jumps season!

Cheers,
Andy