Sakkari is capable of fighting back as an underdog although she looks outgunned today.
Siniakova/Strykova are two who maybe worth opposing after the 1st set
Siniakova is the better clay player, but Stykova has beaten her twice on the surface.
Both Wozniaki, Kvitova and Pliskova are above average if they happen to lose the 1st.
Giorgi could put pressure on Stephens if Stephens wins the 1st set - it depends how Stephens is serving,
These are just my personal notes, as usual circumstances / prices determine actual course of action!
French Open 2018 Roland Garros
Unfortunately smartening up our courts for todays open day...so missed all the fun...but done my 'bit'..so trading today...hopefullysome good trading matches!?? Thanks again.Matches I feel worth watching today:
Giorgi/(Stephens)
(Rybarikova)/Tsurenko
(Sharapova)/(Pliskova)
Begu/(Garcia)
Gavrilova/(Mertens)
(Kerber)/Bertens
Bracketed players could perhaps be opposed at some stage
As I have mentioned before you have to be realistic about comeback expectations - underdogs priced under 1.65 who lose the first set only take the second less than 25% of the time.
However some players are better than others and smaller price movements can still occur.
Yesterday you could have laid Kasatkina at end of set 1 at 1.07 and backed her when she lost the 2nd at 1.74 – nearly a 4/1 winner on a player who has been regularly exceeding the 25% strike rate this year (approx 45%).
Giorgi/(Stephens)
(Rybarikova)/Tsurenko
(Sharapova)/(Pliskova)
Begu/(Garcia)
Gavrilova/(Mertens)
(Kerber)/Bertens
Bracketed players could perhaps be opposed at some stage
As I have mentioned before you have to be realistic about comeback expectations - underdogs priced under 1.65 who lose the first set only take the second less than 25% of the time.
However some players are better than others and smaller price movements can still occur.
Yesterday you could have laid Kasatkina at end of set 1 at 1.07 and backed her when she lost the 2nd at 1.74 – nearly a 4/1 winner on a player who has been regularly exceeding the 25% strike rate this year (approx 45%).
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 708
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
I have Giorgi 15 ticks too big in the first couple of games in set 2. Folks just lumping on a comeback from Stephens without much price sensitivity at all...
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Nero Tulip
- Posts: 708
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Going to be a large position on Giorgi come set 3 at this rate..
Sorry, I mean if the price of the favourite pre-match is under 1.65 and the favourite wins the 1st set then
the underdog only comes back less than 25% of the time. This decreases as the SP of the fav decreases but gives some idea.
If you rely on just watching the "competitiveness" of the 1st set, without prior player knowledge it is unlikely you would ever enter any positions at low odds.
I feel Nero Tulip is correct about Stephen's price, but she is a tricky player to get right as it all depends on her mood on the day - I have her blacklisted with Fognini, Monfils etc!
the underdog only comes back less than 25% of the time. This decreases as the SP of the fav decreases but gives some idea.
If you rely on just watching the "competitiveness" of the 1st set, without prior player knowledge it is unlikely you would ever enter any positions at low odds.
I feel Nero Tulip is correct about Stephen's price, but she is a tricky player to get right as it all depends on her mood on the day - I have her blacklisted with Fognini, Monfils etc!