French Open 2018 Roland Garros

[Nero Tulip]

she is a tricky player to get right as it all depends on her mood on the day - I have her blacklisted with Fognini, Monfils etc!

I think she's a big tournament player.. whens shes interested, she's great.. when she isn't.. absolutely dire.

[Dallas]

Kvitova just saves 2 match points

[Trading96]

Kvitova just saves 2 match points

Giving her too much credit with that phrasing

[Dallas]

Kvitova just saves 2 match points

Giving her too much credit with that phrasing

Its amazing how often someone gets a break back at a critical time then throws it away on there next serve to leave it all to do again

Edit then another break back by Kvitova

[mjay]

Conversely, favourites who start under 1.65 and lose the 1st set win the 2nd an average of 46% of the time over the past year.
A lot of people like backing the favourite who have lost the 1st set. At these prices it is likely they will be trading between 1.75 and 3.0.

There are some “reliable” players who exceed 60% in their 2nd set comebacks and some real horror stories ranging between 0 and 20%.
I s the risk/reward ratio on your side?

As Dallas mentioned the other week it is easy to be blinded by tennis stats – what happens when a bottler takes on a choker for instance!? However, they can provide a more rounded feel for the player and then you can consider the price on offer in this light.

Nero- it seems you are right about Stephens - over the last 3 years her Grand Slam wins have outperformed the rest of the season by 12% (from a smaller sample)

[Dallas]

On the Sharapova Vs Pliscova match now

[Dallas]

3 breaks from 1st 4 games

[Dallas]

I have Giorgi 15 ticks too big in the first couple of games in set 2. Folks just lumping on a comeback from Stephens without much price sensitivity at all...

Excellent call on Stephens
Well done Nero Tulip

[Nero Tulip]

Already people starting to hold the Sharapova price up.. if you're a position taker, you're on her, if you're a sentiment player, you're against, if you're an intra match value player, you're against (possibly), stats guys... not sure, who really knows when Sharapova's comeback is still relatively young.

I'm on Sharapova, but not as big as I probably should be, trying to give the comeback sentiment more respect.. better value and bigger prices can come later.

[Nero Tulip]

For a change, this is a price where I can trim virtually all my position at the end of set 1.

[Nero Tulip]

I have Giorgi 15 ticks too big in the first couple of games in set 2. Folks just lumping on a comeback from Stephens without much price sensitivity at all...

Excellent call on Stephens
Well done Nero Tulip

cheers Dallas. Glad I took some back when Giorgi was about to serve for it !

[Dallas]

Already people starting to hold the Sharapova price up.. if you're a position taker, you're on her, if you're a sentiment player, you're against, if you're an intra match value player, you're against (possibly), stats guys... not sure, who really knows when Sharapova's comeback is still relatively young.

I'm on Sharapova, but not as big as I probably should be, trying to give the comeback sentiment more respect.. better value and bigger prices can come later.

On her as in a lay?
Which i've just done lightly as I'm not totally confident of her been pegged back this 2nd set

[Nero Tulip]

'On her' in my language means backing her.

[Dallas]

'On her' in my language means backing her.

Hat tipped to you on this one, just taken my small loss
She looks to have this sewn up (famous last words)

[Dallas]

There seem to be a few more 5 setters than usual this year, ill have to check to be certain.

Chart from Edmunds earlier 3rd match at 3-3 in the 5th set