Today's Horse Racing

[dragontrades]

Mojo_large_Brachiosaurus.jpg

[SeaHorseRacing]

[SeaHorseRacing]

Hope the old boss gets a winner he with Cropley. Such an underated trainer.

[Korattt]

Mojo_large_Brachiosaurus.jpg

you've a pic of my missus.. how did you get that?

[lukesanges]

All my trades seem to be drifters lately

These manipulators want to lay literally everything I can't get my head around it, was happening on the first 4 favourites in last race

[dragontrades]

So much lay money getting stacked up on some of these markets today

[Derek27]

I'm going to give the rest of the day a miss. I'll happily take my net 52p of winnings for today - and breathe a sigh of relief at them after almost losing £41across 3 races due to lack of concentration. There's not much to interest me today anyway with all of these sprint races.

I've got you beat!
I 'nipped in' to do a quick trade and netted 94p!
George.

That will be my benchmark for today.

[lukesanges]

So much lay money getting stacked up on some of these markets today

Do you think it could be some sort of group in on it? Nearly every runner is trying to be pushed out

[ruthlessimon]

Do you think it could be some sort of group in on it? Nearly every runner is trying to be pushed out

If we take Peter's latest vid, perhaps your stance could be seen as a bias he might exploit.

Perhaps one could see it as a form of saliency bias. i.e. You've seen a lot of very specific lay price action, & clearly have been influenced by it; but has that really changed the probability of future lay action?

[ShaunWhite]

It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. People see it, they expect it again, they want in at any price, they cause the next move. Imo it explains why they happen in clusters yet the big picture is a wash. Spells of non movers or steamers can be explained the same way.

Is the conclusion that a kind of anti-Gambler's Falacy does apply to pre race markets? Unrelated events are actually related because they share the same small group of interested parties?

[ruthlessimon]

& also this leads onto why I think labeling it as "psychology" can be seen as kinda misleading imo.

If there have been 3 very large drifters in a row, is the probability of the 4th drifting different to the norm? Answering that is the protection against saliency & recently bias imo. The psychology offers a nice explaining for the "why" of the +ve expectancy. But working out if it's a +ve expective (properly), & then combining it with separate information - that's difficult - & where I think a lot of traders fall short; myself included There's hardly any mainstream info on using data to form predictive models

[Korattt]

bit higgledy piggledy but a good move

[dragontrades]

Fashion Sense could outrun its odds here

[Euler]

I'm enjoying the evening stuff.

[Halliday]

Absolutely disgusting ride their from Jim Crowley. Text book example of a non trier on Livvys Dream.

Stables horses running below form( no winner in over 30 runners )

Filly held up when she won last time as case here , all previous runs had been with soft in the description.Ground a lot faster here .

Stewards Report


Brighton, 11 Jun 18
Race 1 - 2:00pm
THE PHOENIX ARTS CLUB FILLIES' HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 5)
Following the race, the representative of David Simcock reported that LATE CHANGE, placed sixth, was unsuited by the Firm, Good to Firm ground, and that the filly would prefer an easier surface. The representative of Charles Hills reported that LIVVYS DREAM (IRE), which started favourite and finished fifth, was unsuited by the Firm, Good to Firm ground, and that the filly would prefer an easier surface.

Definitely not a non trier .. or maybe My Crowley was still suffering from his attack by fellow jockey Raul da silva at Goodwood yesterday .