Three years?

[Predicton]

Hi,

since I've just been hammered in two races and that is my cue to pack it in for the day and I'm at a loose end, I thought I'd ask a question which probably hasn't a definitive answer.

I read a post on a forum once which suggested that it takes about three years to truly learn to trade. I know that one year in I'm still miles off being any good and at the moment that estimate seems likely to be true, or maybe a little optimistic. What other members think of that timescale?

cheers, P

[andyfuller]

I don't think you can put a timescale on it. Some will learn quickly others will never learn, some will put in a lot of effort, others will think they are putting in a lot of effort but aren't really, others will be putting in a lot of effort but the wrong kind - basically it is a how long is a piece of string question much like how long will it take me to learn to drive?

Just get your head down and work your socks off and hopefully you will get there - good idea stopping though if you hit a few losses but why not carry on just watching and learning?

[Predicton]

Hi A,

a fair question. The answer is in three parts :-

1.I'm not yet able to move on from the mistake and can't concentrate on what else is happening.

2. I've never been much good at learning by watching. I watched Eddie Gray go past defenders as if they weren't there for years but never learned how to "beat a man". Seriously though,I need to know what I'm looking for and that requires considerable thought before I'm struck by an idea, it's probably just the way my brain is set up.

3. I'm knackered after looking at a computer screen all day at work.

Thanks for the response, P

[hgodden]

It does take a lot of work and time for sure and everyone is different but all the people I've spoken to who have made it have done so in far less than 3 years. After one year are you able to turn a small profit over time using small stakes? If I were you I would try questioning everything you do and how you think about what trading is itself - a small change in behaviour can potentially make a big difference, for instance the runners you choose to trade, whether you trade every single race, even what you do before trading to prepare yourself physically and mentally - you say yourself that you're tired starting trading after work, it is inevitable that your trading will suffer because of this.

In terms of 'strategy' it may also pay off to question your beliefs about what trading actually is. Most people think that it's all about the business of predicting whether the odds are going to go up or down, but in practice its not always like this. Peter says that you don't need to know the direction of the market to make money. In fact a good trader can get the direction of the market wrong and still make money! Question and experiment with everything until you can find something that is right for you

[harvard16]

P, You did the right thing in this situation, just stop and take a break, but try turn the negative into the positive by working out where you went wrong and work out what you need to do in the future to try to eliminate the same faults reoccurring, if you let your loses get away from you , think about using a stop etc. We all have days where we just can’t make head or tails of a race, and end up on the wrong side of the market constantly, that’s just part of it.

I know my weakness is overstaking on the back side and getting caught by steady drifters, but I’m getting much better at cutting those positions early and when I have a few knocks I go very small, with an aim to making £10/day consistently for a while, it’s good for the discipline and getting the confidence back and the 10’s soon add up, people forget, do that for a year and you have 3.5k

[CaerMyrddin]

I know my weakness is overstaking on the back side

Your testimony remembered my experience. I had the problem you have, then fought it so hard that I started overlaying

Now I use both at ease, but it's very interesting to see how this is a mental game itself.

[Predicton]

Hi all,

thanks for the comments, fascinating stuff.

I did start to turn a small profit about 3 months ago (that makes it 9 months to achieve "stability"), more than a bit erratic, but a profit nonetheless. It wouldn't bother me if I didn't because I'm a sucker for the software, it has the same effect on me as fruit machines in pubs do on some people, I love the moving graphs and flashing lights (during the peak in summer, I was getting in almost 30 hours a week trading on top of my 37 hours a week at work).

Interestingly, or perhaps not, the hammerings I mentioned weren't as a result of not using a stop losses. They resulted from repeatedly failing to spot the direction the market is moving which racks up the losses. I always quit when that happens as to me it signals my decision making has deteriorated (maybe due to tiredness as H pointed out).

I'm definitely not competent and I'm amazed a year has shot by already. I'm not worried about what level I can achieve or how long it takes to get there, it was just the "three year" comment that intrigued me,

Thanks for all your comments,

cheers, P

[Predicton]

I had to chuckle as I thought "that's what comes of tempting providence" and booked a 10% bank loss on the afternoon today. I hope you all did better,

cheers, P