World Cup 2018

[BetScalper]

Well, I initially said this game was like watching paint dry.

But I gave in and had a little flutter at half-time, which luckily worked out.

Shame I didn't have the balls to use Peter/Euler stake sizes.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Come on England!!

[ShaunWhite]

0-2 down and with some subs brought on, I thought it was worth a lay on Japan. So that first goal helped, but the second was very useful. I then stuck some of the profit on laying the draw at short odds and hoping for a late goal. Boom.

Cheers I thought that was how you played it.

The line between gambling and trading is often blurred and I've tended to resist that type of 'trade' because it just feels like a gamble. I know the downside is a lot less than the upside but that's essentially what betting at long odds against is.

You make this look so easy, but when the mantra is that markets are efficient (and the big boys are continually dragging the market towards true value) I still don't understand where you're seeing the edge.

You clearly had a firm idea of the true price of Belgium coming back and a point in mind when you were going to take the loss if they weren't doing. You'd have backed them at 500, but not at evens, somewhere between the two was a price that you considered to be a tipping point.

You're a clever lad Peter, if I just backed every team that were 2-0 down at x minutes, regardless of how good they looked, I'd end up in the workhouse.

[ShaunWhite]

I thought it was worth a lay on Japan.

This apparently simple statement is the result of a lifetime of experience and research. Assessing that 'worth' is extremely difficult.

You seem to do it as easily as catching a ball whereas I'm still trying to catch it by calculating its speed, trajectory the necessary hand movement etc.

Frankly it makes me feel utterly inept.

[ruthlessimon]

Frankly it makes me feel utterly inept.

How hard can it be? Got any knockout footy data for us to chew on Shaun?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2%E2%80%9 ... worst_lead

I reckon with some basic stats we could work out if the cliche is profitable. Added to the fact, it's a huge fav (for the tournament) that's down 0-2

[ruthlessimon]

See the fact it's a knockout game with a fav IMO, would have an impact over Opta's fig. Testable although the sample size would be small

[ShaunWhite]

Frankly it makes me feel utterly inept.

How hard can it be? Got any knockout footy data for us to chew on Shaun?

Footy data is the furious leg work going on while the swan appears to glide serenely.

Was the decision to back Belgium a conscious decision based on statistics and value, or an instinctive decision, subconsiously based on statistics and value. It certainly wasn't "Team X look handy, I'll have a punt", I'd be hugely disappointed if that's all it was.

It's the sheer quantity of this stuff that is hardwired by 18+years of trading which makes me wonder what, if anything, I can learn from someone at that extreme level of ability. Reminds me when DaVinci taught art classes and students were told to draw a circle, sounds easy, looks easy, but you can't explain how.

[ShaunWhite]

I reckon with some basic stats we could work out if the cliche is profitable.

It'll be profitable if you can get the right price and be prepared to run the strategy for 500 world cups

[Naffman]

Decent game this even at 0-0

[Dallas]

Come on Switzerland just 1 goal will do!

[Naffman]

Mark Lawrenson what an idiot

Crap commentary this WC

[Naffman]

Sweden quite good defensively...but so so bad going forward

[Dallas]

On that display, I'd much rather face Sweden than Switz in the QF

[Euler]

Frankly it makes me feel utterly inept.

I'm having a break today as I felt a bit dodgy yesterday, probably overdone things. So give me a prod tomorrow and I'll give you some simple logic. Football is very variable though, so results will be as well. But there is logic you can use for a decision like that.

[SeaHorseRacing]

On that display, I'd much rather face Sweden than Switz in the QF

Let’s just beat Colombia first. Can’t see this going the distance. Think It will be a hammering either way! Only one team who finished runner up in group have gone through.