Today's Horse Racing

[Halliday]

prices held down again, jeez I find Saturday’s hard work

just out of interest do you actually enjoy horse racing and how knowledgeable are you regarding form trends, stats etc , and how do you trade it, ladder automation, always same entry .. back/ lay, lay/ back etc.what decides your point of entry etc

Just asking because you find Saturdays hard work, you were considering giving afternoon racing a miss, generally don’t like the bigger meetings , and sundays were up and down for you !! Plus you often aren’t happy with the timings of races.

From you many posts you just seem so up and down ( more down than up ), almost trying too hard to make it as a trader, it’s not the be all and end all you know .

Just try and enjoy what you do, it amazing how much that helps

do I enjoy racing?, more than I used to, my knowledge of horse racing is limited, very limited, with respect I don’t see how form helps when gauging a move, how do I trade, not through automation, it’s all manual & I’ve learnt through hours of screen time, (and it is hundreds of hours) what works & what don’t, it’s just that Saturday afternoons for some reason I can’t crack

Agree you don’t need to understand form trends stats etc to trade horseracing markets but it does help .

How do you think Horse racing markets are formed and what determines a horses price ?

There are many instances of where the draw , changes in going , stable form , a trainers preference for certain meetings ,a jockey having several winners on a card etc, have influenced the price of a horse .
A classic example was “ the so called golden highway” against the stands rail on the Lingfield turf course the other year . If a horse was drawn near that rail it’s odds shortened ( more so if it was a front runner . Draw bias can massively affect a horses odds. Yarmouth had a massive draw bias a few weeks ago so much so that the course watered that particular part of the track at the last meeting to reduce it.

So yes trends and form do influence a horses price .. If a trainer has a few short price horses beaten at a meeting , it not unusual for his remaining runners to drift , and vice versa if a stable has winners
Plus some stables are known as “ betting” stables , so you can often see a trend of their horses shortening .

You look at how Dan Skelton horses are priced up , especially ones which are running for him for the first time and how they move in the markets

So you’d be a fool to dismiss stats, trends,form, etc when gauging whether a horse will lengthen or shorten, because ultimately that’s what most use to decide whether to back or lay a horse. Not everybody is trading and following charts graphs etc

So from that point of view I think your being a tad naive or more confident in your trading skills then you should be .. Horse racing markets can be complicated and influenced by many factors .. if you understand some of them it helps

[Korattt]

just out of interest do you actually enjoy horse racing and how knowledgeable are you regarding form trends, stats etc , and how do you trade it, ladder automation, always same entry .. back/ lay, lay/ back etc.what decides your point of entry etc

Just asking because you find Saturdays hard work, you were considering giving afternoon racing a miss, generally don’t like the bigger meetings , and sundays were up and down for you !! Plus you often aren’t happy with the timings of races.

From you many posts you just seem so up and down ( more down than up ), almost trying too hard to make it as a trader, it’s not the be all and end all you know .

Just try and enjoy what you do, it amazing how much that helps

do I enjoy racing?, more than I used to, my knowledge of horse racing is limited, very limited, with respect I don’t see how form helps when gauging a move, how do I trade, not through automation, it’s all manual & I’ve learnt through hours of screen time, (and it is hundreds of hours) what works & what don’t, it’s just that Saturday afternoons for some reason I can’t crack

Agree you don’t need to understand form trends stats etc to trade horseracing markets but it does help .

How do you think Horse racing markets are formed and what determines a horses price ?

There are many instances of where the draw , changes in going , stable form , a trainers preference for certain meetings ,a jockey having several winners on a card etc, have influenced the price of a horse .
A classic example was “ the so called golden highway” against the stands rail on the Lingfield turf course the other year . If a horse was drawn near that rail it’s odds shortened ( more so if it was a front runner . Draw bias can massively affect a horses odds. Yarmouth had a massive draw bias a few weeks ago so much so that the course watered that particular part of the track at the last meeting to reduce it.

So yes trends and form do influence a horses price .. If a trainer has a few short price horses beaten at a meeting , it not unusual for his remaining runners to drift , and vice versa if a stable has winners
Plus some stables are known as “ betting” stables , so you can often see a trend of their horses shortening .

You look at how Dan Skelton horses are priced up , especially ones which are running for him for the first time and how they move in the markets

So you’d be a fool to dismiss stats, trends,form, etc when gauging whether a horse will lengthen or shorten, because ultimately that’s what most use to decide whether to back or lay a horse. Not everybody is trading and following charts graphs etc

So from that point of view I think your being a tad naive or more confident in your trading skills then you should be .. Horse racing markets can be complicated and influenced by many factors .. if you understand some of them it helps

fair enough, I see your point, thank you

[Halliday]

Koratt.. If most of your time is spent trading horseracing it would pay to delve a little deeper, maybe between races on a quiet day. You’d be amazed how much it would help . I mean do you know even know the distance or type of race your trading and how well you do in each type of race etc

Do you understand the different grade of race , what a claiming race is etc . It may seem pointless but it really can help

[Dallas]

With the exception of big meetings and when a jockey is on a few winners for the day I never etc I never even look at a horses name that I'm trading (which is 99% of the time). Instead, all my focus is firmly below the staking area on whats happening on the ladder, the only thing I do check for is the race type.

In my experience the two types of people who tend to struggle most with pre-off trading are those from a gambling background followed by those who are into racing, for the later, it's often because its difficult for them to let go of their opinion when the market is clearly saying something else.
When I arrive at a market I have no idea if a horse should be 8.0 or 2.0, but the activity on the ladder will soon start to tell me

[Black Ice]

Dallas wrote:
In my experience the two types of people who tend to struggle most with pre-off trading are those from a gambling background followed by those who are into racing, for the later, it's often because its difficult for them to let go of their opinion when the market is clearly saying something else.
When I arrive at a market I have no idea if a horse should be 8.0 or 2.0, but the activity on the ladder will soon start to tell me

+1 (unfortunately!!!)

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[ShaunWhite]

it’s just that Saturday afternoons for some reason I can’t crack

Could there be an element of you've just had enough? You work bloody hard at this and personally by Saturday morning I'm just about done with it.

I did years in a Mon to Fri job and I'm sure there's a part of my brain that goes into weekend mode. I've tried having sun and mon off but it's just not the same.

I'm now 100% certain I won't lose on Saturdays, because I don't do it. I get rested, let the grey matter catch up and look forward to Monday instead of dreading it like I did in the 9 to 5.

Do what works best for you and don't be a slave to convention or peer pressure. I might work Sat when I find midweek easier. I (we? ) burn more mental energy per day at the moment than Dallas does in a week! Or that's how it feels.

[Derek27]

There are many instances of where the draw , changes in going , stable form , a trainers preference for certain meetings ,a jockey having several winners on a card etc, have influenced the price of a horse .
A classic example was “ the so called golden highway” against the stands rail on the Lingfield turf course the other year . If a horse was drawn near that rail it’s odds shortened ( more so if it was a front runner . Draw bias can massively affect a horses odds. Yarmouth had a massive draw bias a few weeks ago so much so that the course watered that particular part of the track at the last meeting to reduce it.

...

So you’d be a fool to dismiss stats, trends,form, etc when gauging whether a horse will lengthen or shorten, because ultimately that’s what most use to decide whether to back or lay a horse. Not everybody is trading and following charts graphs etc

There are many reasons why a horse will be strongly fancied, the draw just being one of them - it could simply be head and shoulders above the rest. A trader will know it's strongly fancied by it's price and in most cases won't need to know why.

It's mainly changes on the day, such as draw bias or trainer/jockey success that you need to be aware of as that can move the market drastically.

When I started trading, as Dallas pointed out, I sometimes fell into the trap of thinking an overpriced horse will shorten. But I quickly learnt to put aside my opinion of what the prices should be and focused on how the market is moving, and as a result I never found my knowledge of form that useful for trading.

[Korattt]

With the exception of big meetings and when a jockey is on a few winners for the day I never etc I never even look at a horses name that I'm trading (which is 99% of the time). Instead, all my focus is firmly below the staking area on whats happening on the ladder, the only thing I do check for is the race type.

+1

[Halliday]

With the exception of big meetings and when a jockey is on a few winners for the day I never etc I never even look at a horses name that I'm trading (which is 99% of the time). Instead, all my focus is firmly below the staking area on whats happening on the ladder, the only thing I do check for is the race type.

In my experience the two types of people who tend to struggle most with pre-off trading are those from a gambling background followed by those who are into racing, for the later, it's often because its difficult for them to let go of their opinion when the market is clearly saying something else.
When I arrive at a market I have no idea if a horse should be 8.0 or 2.0, but the activity on the ladder will soon start to tell me

Agree with what you say to a large extent , but I do think the sort of stats , trends , whatever you want to call them can sometimes second guess market moves or confirm the direction of such moves ( draw bias and going changes in particular )

I guess because I’ve been involved in number crunching stats and trends within racing for years that I find it of benefit , like patterns in the markets it’s amazing how often they replicate themselves .Yes markets and how they are formed has changed over the years..And yes they are manipulated . But opinion influenced by many of the factors I’ve mention frame most markets

And I agree that those coming from a gambling background, most would find it difficult to succeed at trading , not so much from having strong opinions formed by factors outside the market . But more from wanting to win big and chase losses .And many for whatever reason convince themselves that they “trade” rather then “gamble , just because they have BA and a trading set up.

I use the term “ trade” and “ gamble “ with care as many think it is “ the same thing but different “

[Derek27]

I (we? ) burn more mental energy per day at the moment than Dallas does in a week! Or that's how it feels.

I'm sure many people have hectic and chaotic lives (not suggesting Dallas is one of them) but remain calm and well measured on a forum.

I doubt it happens the other way round though.

[Derek27]

And I agree that those coming from a gambling background, most would find it difficult to succeed at trading , not so much from having strong opinions formed by factors outside the market . But more from wanting to win big and chase losses .And many for whatever reason convince themselves that they “trade” rather then “gamble , just because they have BA and a trading set up.

That's quite a sweeping generalisation of somebody with a gambling background!!!

Is that what you did when you started trading?

I would have thought most intelligent gamblers bet singles and don't realistically expect to make 30% profit on turnover and would never even consider chasing losses.

Shit, better get down to the shops before they close!

[Halliday]

And I agree that those coming from a gambling background, most would find it difficult to succeed at trading , not so much from having strong opinions formed by factors outside the market . But more from wanting to win big and chase losses .And many for whatever reason convince themselves that they “trade” rather then “gamble , just because they have BA and a trading set up.

That's quite a sweeping generalisation of somebody with a gambling background!!!

Is that what you did when you started trading?

I would have thought most intelligent gamblers bet singles and don't realistically expect to make 30% profit on turnover and would never even consider chasing losses.

Shit, better get down to the shops before they close!

I rather suspect “ intelligent gamblers “ are in the minority .. Now get a wriggle on down the shops, and get comfy for the Aussie Racing, tho doubt it with be as good as last nights and the Williams 6 timer ( see I study Aussie form and stats too ).

[Halliday]

Example of how following a small stable once it runs into form can pay dividends... This one stands out .. trainer had no flat winners in last five seasons, and only five over jumps.

Only one horse entered next week .. Declared overnight at Ayr tomorrow, and entered up at Catterick on Wednesday ..

Ti Amo.... Hasn’t raced for over 300 days, ex Irish first run for trainer, was rated 70 in Ireland runs off 53 here.

Usually this sort of “ golden period “ is finite and doesn’t last that long, and often many latch onto it , this one seems have have been missed by many judging by the sp of winners . But not by everyone !!

[Korattt]

half decent afternoon session, should’ve doubled it though, tried some Irish markets today.. which was stupid

[Halliday]

half decent afternoon session, should’ve doubled it though, tried some Irish markets today.. which was stupid

Irish markets can be quite volatile, with rapid price movements . Not for the faint hearted ...and today’s cards there werent as decent as usual big race Sunday’s in Ireland