How do spot the money that is entering

[Derek27]

No disrespect to Peter, but if Peter posts to this forum at the same time as Luca, I look at Luca's post first, fascinated to find out what his next question's about!

[ShaunWhite]

.. is a very deep question imo.
For example, if the fav's price is "miles" below MWAP (i.e. current price: 2.38. Mwap: 3.2) - does that make the runner more likely/profitable to lay, pre-race.

..and therefore opening up the whole 'how smart is smart money?' question.

[Derek27]

Stop feeding the troll

That said, this:

"I am also very curious about why people look at the money ''already matched'' at previous odds level. Why do they look at previous matched odds/volume ? What do they get from this information?"

.. is a very deep question imo.

For example, if the fav's price is "miles" below MWAP (i.e. current price: 2.38. Mwap: 3.2) - does that make the runner more likely/profitable to lay, pre-race.

Luca is an in-play tennis trader and that's why he doesn't understand the point of previous traded volume - there is no purpose for it in in-play tennis.

[ruthlessimon]

..and therefore opening up the whole 'how smart is smart money?' question.

Exactly; & we haven't even got to when a certain price does a lot of volume after a move

Let's hypothetically say a price steams 20 ticks & does a lot of volume at the low; is this a sign the backers are happy executing lower? Or a sign that the backers cannot get the price lower?

Difficult nightmare questions!

[ruthlessimon]

there is no purpose for it in in-play tennis.

Oh he's tennis??

[Lucacrebbe]

All indicators tell you whats happened, not whats about to happen. That comes with judgement and experience. Indicators can help but are not the magic holy grail.

You're a scalper, you should know what I mean. You scalp using the order book, spotting where the money is going to move. I assume you just look at the order book cause MFI could be lagging for your ?

I use WOM (100,50,25) and wait for a build up of money at the front of the queue on either side and then open my trades. I will then close them if it looks to be reversing. Rinse and Repeat. So, sometimes I am scalping and others I am trend trading. And to cap it off I don't open lay trades at the top of the trading range and I don't open back bets at the bottom of a trading range. Unless of course I see the Mad Bomber dumping his/her pocket money into the market.

Example: You are trading, current back / Lay odds are 1,28 and 130

you will look at the WOM, when the WOM is rising, and (at the same time) you see new money coming in at 1,31 BACK and 1,29 Lay (you said on either sides) you enter in the market and you scalp (but backing or laying?)

[BetScalper]

You're a scalper, you should know what I mean. You scalp using the order book, spotting where the money is going to move. I assume you just look at the order book cause MFI could be lagging for your ?

I use WOM (100,50,25) and wait for a build up of money at the front of the queue on either side and then open my trades. I will then close them if it looks to be reversing. Rinse and Repeat. So, sometimes I am scalping and others I am trend trading. And to cap it off I don't open lay trades at the top of the trading range and I don't open back bets at the bottom of a trading range. Unless of course I see the Mad Bomber dumping his/her pocket money into the market.

Example: You are trading, current back / Lay odds are 1,28 and 130

you will look at the WOM, when the WOM is rising, and (at the same time) you see new money coming in at 1,31 BACK and 1,29 Lay (you said on either sides) you enter in the market and you scalp (but backing or laying?)

Depends on the WOM and which side the build up of money is. If WOM < 33% and current lay amount > x amount then I back. If WOM > 66% and current back amount > x amount then I lay. But my WOM settings are 100,50,25. This gives me emphasis on money at the front and less on the potential spoof money away from the front etc.

[Lucacrebbe]

Stop feeding the troll

Lucca's moving to the UK, I hear he's getting a flat nextdoor to Derek.

Proving resisdency might be tricky, having a uk bank account (which anyone can do) and being here on holiday here doesn't really count. I guess he's on top of all the detail though and researched everything with the usual forensic rigour.

Residence you can show also bill statement, bank statment... A bank account should no be hard to open, last time I lived in London it was easy
Now the things maybe changed because of the brex-it?

[Lucacrebbe]

Stop feeding the troll

Trolling is the art of deliberately, cleverly, and secretly pissing people off. I don't think that's the case with Luca, I find him quite amusing.

I am not trolling. I want genuinly learn as much I can, I apply this to all the field which I focus about... I think that being superficial is not the best way to do things
I am not a superficial typo

I don't see why asking for information should be ''troll-ing' a ''crime''... if I would not ask here, where could I ask?
Should I go into a stock/forex forum asking for informations on betting?
This is a quite good forum, with people with experience, willing to help, I find myself pretty good asking here. I have always got my answers

[arbitrage16]

..and therefore opening up the whole 'how smart is smart money?' question.

Exactly; & we haven't even got to when a certain price does a lot of volume after a move

Let's hypothetically say a price steams 20 ticks & does a lot of volume at the low; is this a sign the backers are happy executing lower? Or a sign that the backers cannot get the price lower?

Difficult nightmare questions!

Interesting. I've always assumed this is people exiting their positions (after a 20 tick steam), and layers deciding it has gone far enough and it's time to oppose...?

[ruthlessimon]

I've always assumed this is people exiting their positions (after a 20 tick steam), and layers deciding it has gone far enough and it's time to oppose...?

But it's the backers who are exiting, which in theory should reverse the market? The fact it doesn't suggest new traders are entering? Coupled with layers which have your opinion, causes a 2nd downward breakout. Almost contrarian, contrarian

Unfortunately, I cannot test it atm; but measuring those areas is something I've always wanted to do

[ruthlessimon]

Almost contrarian, contrarian

What I mean by this:

The contrarian traders see the 20 tick move, & blindly fade it.

But they're being filled - which could be seen as a negative confluence (i.e. someone is still backing).

A sidelined trader, predicts the contrarian traders will be in trouble should this push lower.

Market breaks, now down 25 ticks

The trend faders exit, further prolonging the trend

[ruthlessimon]

In fact, Peter's got two vids of the two alternate viewpoints being traded profitably

1. New higher volume @ lower prices (back) = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEJR6R08w3Q
2. New higher volume @ lower prices (lay) = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAlD7rcT1OY

[arbitrage16]

I've always assumed this is people exiting their positions (after a 20 tick steam), and layers deciding it has gone far enough and it's time to oppose...?

But it's the backers who are exiting, which in theory should reverse the market? The fact it doesn't suggest new traders are entering? Coupled with layers which have your opinion, causes a 2nd downward breakout. Almost contrarian, contrarian

That reversal is what generally happens, no? e.g. it steams into 1.5 and is then clogged up, backers think the move is over so exit, layers think it's going to reverse so enter, lots of lay money in the market, and it bounces - PW has a video on it, regarding the "bounce trade" which I believe follows this principle.

[ruthlessimon]

That reversal is what generally happens, no? e.g. it steams into 1.5 and is then clogged up, backers think the move is over so exit, layers think it's going to reverse so enter, lots of lay money in the market, and it bounces - PW has a video on it, regarding the "bounce trade" which I believe follows this principle.

Makes sense doesn't it.

However, I'm not even sure my initial premise was even correct. The idea that a, shortie, 15 tick steam is "over backed"

Unless I've made a systematic error in my spreadsheet, over the entire month of May - it was profitable to back a big steamer (liveshow) (even after waiting for a couple of ticks confirmation for the turn). Basically, what's occurring is a pullback. I assumed there would be a correlation between a massive steamer & a massive reversal, but it's not quite that simple



y-axis: Net p&l in ticks
x-axis: Steam move (liveshow)