EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

[Dublin_Flyer]

I think the EU should have followed Ireland and held referendums around the constitution and got them change but if the EU refused then leave.

Regarding this, the next constitutional referendum in Ireland is most likely to be about repealing the 8th amendment to the constitution!

The 8th amendment gives equal rights to the unborn child and mother, basically banning abortion. Even in cases of fatal fetal abnormalities where the child has 0% of being born alive and the mothers life could be at risk, no possibility of abortion, get on Ryanair and fook off to England pretty much!

A bit more background, the 8th amendment was in 1983, a time when the church still held a huge say in everything that happened in Ireland. Also before the priests/christian brothers abusing kids scandals came to light, always known, but never nationally recognised. The parish priest in my primary school was known as Fr Willygrabber for fook sake!

The under 35 group showed the national will to get rid of the backwards religious reputation of Ireland by turning out en masse for the last referendum recognising gay marriage, they will no doubt do the same whenever the bucket of cunts in government finally set a date for this referendum.

As a 35 year old, I can firmly say the only people voting to keep the 8th amendment will be the severely religious, or uninformed arseholes, thankfully they're in the minority now. Even the elderly are more tolerant to being liberal now, for example, my president (while a senator) debated Tea Party boy Michael Graham and called him a wanker in a live radio debate!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZO2jIR8hc4

Once the referendum is announced and markets open, it's a no brainer the Repeal side will win by a large margin, get ready to fill your pockets!

Apologies for the long post going off topic.

Back on topic, personally it looks to me like Gove used the whole campaign as a Trojan Horse towards leadership of the party. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vaz4SNKlW98

8th.JPG

Can't type, hands too full of cash

[Xerxster]

Anyone think that the chance of a second referendum has increased in the past month or so?

[sionascaig]

Anyone think that the chance of a second referendum has increased in the past month or so?

Based on chats with political insiders no.... but who can predict the future!

If brexit no deal or bad deal comes about I suspect there could be a vote of no confidence in the government. There are just so many different factions cutting across the political parties there will be a large group unhappy whatever solution is found leading to continued political uncertainty...

Pretty safe to say May will be gone by end of next year though...

[ShaunWhite]

Anyone think that the chance of a second referendum has increased in the past month or so?

Based on chats with political insiders no.... but who can predict the future!

If brexit no deal or bad deal comes about I suspect there could be a vote of no confidence in the government. There are just so many different factions cutting across the political parties there will be a large group unhappy whatever solution is found leading to continued political uncertainty...

Pretty safe to say May will be gone by end of next year though...

Not a rant, just my take....

Zero chance of a 2nd referendum. Zero chance of a referendum of the outcome of the negotiations.
Probably best that way too. They're supposed to know best, they know the real numbers, so I've no idea why they asked us in the first place. The day my doctor asks me for advice is the day I stop trusting him on anything. Total abdication of responsibility.

There's no such thing as 'No deal'
It's oversimplified spin. 'No deal' on day 1 maybe, but on day 2 some structure and agreement has to be in place. WTO rules get mentioned but that covers a tiny tiny part of our arrangments. WTO is only mentioned because most people think the only issue is car imports and it sounds easy.

May will stay.
The 1922 committee will go through hell and high water to keep May in, the next leader needs to be seen as steering our new HMS Britania, not as the 3rd in a row responsible for the current situation.

...it's a shame Llyod's of London & Goldmans (& Barclays & Deutche?) are moving.

[Xerxster]

Anyone think that the chance of a second referendum has increased in the past month or so?

Based on chats with political insiders no.... but who can predict the future!

If brexit no deal or bad deal comes about I suspect there could be a vote of no confidence in the government. There are just so many different factions cutting across the political parties there will be a large group unhappy whatever solution is found leading to continued political uncertainty...

Pretty safe to say May will be gone by end of next year though...

Hey, coin tosses are more predictable than UK politics, past 3 years have shown so (doesn't meet anything goes, or will happen but seems like anything can happen if that makes any sense).

[BetScalper]

As the guy in charge of the FT said, what are they doing about the Bond and debt markets, currently held in London. Without access, EU banks/Economies/Governments could go bankrupt overnight.

I feel sorry for Eire in one way, their economy/agriculture is going to take a massive hit as under WTO rules their beef will become too expensive and they won't be able to off load on the continent etc.

They could well end up dropping out of the EU too....

[superfrank]

from Tom Slater, deputy editor of spiked - In defence of No Deal
"The more the elites fearmonger about No Deal, the more attractive it becomes. In recent weeks, Project Fear has been rebooted and is now reaching absurd heights. There’s been talk of food shortages, civil unrest and outbreaks of ‘super gonorrhea’ should the UK be forced to exit the EU without a deal. This should all remind us of two things. First, that the elites really think we’re stupid, so stupid that we can be bounced into supporting the government’s Soft Brexit Chequers deal, or perhaps even a second referendum, by means of these spittle-flecked scare stories. And secondly it reminds us that keeping No Deal on the table remains the final guarantee that the Brexit vote will be implemented. It is the only thing standing in the way of the EU humiliating us for its own gain and keeping us under its rule even though we have demanded to leave it. If it comes to a choice between No Deal and No Democracy, we know which side we’re on."

[sionascaig]

from Tom Slater, deputy editor of spiked - In defence of No Deal
"The more the elites fearmonger about No Deal, the more attractive it becomes. In recent weeks, Project Fear has been rebooted and is now reaching absurd heights. There’s been talk of food shortages, civil unrest and outbreaks of ‘super gonorrhea’ should the UK be forced to exit the EU without a deal. This should all remind us of two things. First, that the elites really think we’re stupid, so stupid that we can be bounced into supporting the government’s Soft Brexit Chequers deal, or perhaps even a second referendum, by means of these spittle-flecked scare stories. And secondly it reminds us that keeping No Deal on the table remains the final guarantee that the Brexit vote will be implemented. It is the only thing standing in the way of the EU humiliating us for its own gain and keeping us under its rule even though we have demanded to leave it. If it comes to a choice between No Deal and No Democracy, we know which side we’re on."

I thought it was the government that was preparing for food shortages (stock piling) and drafting in the army to deliver potatoes to old folk in the event of shortages - not project fear...?

Great readers letter in the Irish Times:

Brexit: The undefined negotiated by the unprepared to get the unspecified for the uninformed....

[BetScalper]

from Tom Slater, deputy editor of spiked - In defence of No Deal
"The more the elites fearmonger about No Deal, the more attractive it becomes. In recent weeks, Project Fear has been rebooted and is now reaching absurd heights. There’s been talk of food shortages, civil unrest and outbreaks of ‘super gonorrhea’ should the UK be forced to exit the EU without a deal. This should all remind us of two things. First, that the elites really think we’re stupid, so stupid that we can be bounced into supporting the government’s Soft Brexit Chequers deal, or perhaps even a second referendum, by means of these spittle-flecked scare stories. And secondly it reminds us that keeping No Deal on the table remains the final guarantee that the Brexit vote will be implemented. It is the only thing standing in the way of the EU humiliating us for its own gain and keeping us under its rule even though we have demanded to leave it. If it comes to a choice between No Deal and No Democracy, we know which side we’re on."

I thought it was the government that was preparing for food shortages (stock piling) and drafting in the army to deliver potatoes to old folk in the event of shortages - not project fear...?

Great readers letter in the Irish Times:

Brexit: The undefined negotiated by the unprepared to get the unspecified for the uninformed....

Some of us knew exactly what we were voting for.

[sionascaig]

from Tom Slater, deputy editor of spiked - In defence of No Deal
"The more the elites fearmonger about No Deal, the more attractive it becomes. In recent weeks, Project Fear has been rebooted and is now reaching absurd heights. There’s been talk of food shortages, civil unrest and outbreaks of ‘super gonorrhea’ should the UK be forced to exit the EU without a deal. This should all remind us of two things. First, that the elites really think we’re stupid, so stupid that we can be bounced into supporting the government’s Soft Brexit Chequers deal, or perhaps even a second referendum, by means of these spittle-flecked scare stories. And secondly it reminds us that keeping No Deal on the table remains the final guarantee that the Brexit vote will be implemented. It is the only thing standing in the way of the EU humiliating us for its own gain and keeping us under its rule even though we have demanded to leave it. If it comes to a choice between No Deal and No Democracy, we know which side we’re on."

I thought it was the government that was preparing for food shortages (stock piling) and drafting in the army to deliver potatoes to old folk in the event of shortages - not project fear...?

Great readers letter in the Irish Times:

Brexit: The undefined negotiated by the unprepared to get the unspecified for the uninformed....

Some of us knew exactly what we were voting for.

Well, there was:

- no clear vision
- no white paper setting out consequences
- no impact assessments

I don't think anyone can say they knew what they were voting for & we still don't as evidenced by the ongoing arguments about what Brexit means....

We were asked to jump off a cliff into a land of milk & honey....

This isn't supposed to be a criticism of anyone who voted leave.

I just hope that those that made promises are held accountable by both sides of the debate...

Anyhow, not sure how any of this advances our knowledge of trading so maybe time to end my contribution here )

[Allan R]

Does anybody know why people put an x in the box when "voting", instead of a name?
Or why people all round the world are marching and "voting" to be able to abort their children?

Interesting..https://youtu.be/owB6RHoPcc8.... .....

Ill add the video about the x for voting when i find it again..if youtube have not hidden it..but basically, if you were to put your name, that would suggest you are educated..and therefore able to govern yourself....but the x suggest we are un-educated and need someone to govern our lives for us..i.e..the government....it also makes us think we have a say in what goes on..like brexit...when really we have no say whatsoever........

https://youtu.be/H5BNVoqMA4o

https://youtu.be/rJPLzMIC7CI

[Jukebox]

Having been involved in election counts and seen the spoiled papers and ambiguous or non standard marks on ballot papers that all have to be very carefully considered and often argued over - I'm not sure that "please write the name of the candidate/issue you wish to vote for" would be helpful in improving things any way.

[Wolf1877]

I thought it was the government that was preparing for food shortages (stock piling) and drafting in the army to deliver potatoes to old folk in the event of shortages - not project fear...?

Great readers letter in the Irish Times:

Brexit: The undefined negotiated by the unprepared to get the unspecified for the uninformed....

Some of us knew exactly what we were voting for.

Well, there was:

- no clear vision
- no white paper setting out consequences
- no impact assessments

I don't think anyone can say they knew what they were voting for & we still don't as evidenced by the ongoing arguments about what Brexit means....

We were asked to jump off a cliff into a land of milk & honey....

This isn't supposed to be a criticism of anyone who voted leave.

I just hope that those that made promises are held accountable by both sides of the debate...

Anyhow, not sure how any of this advances our knowledge of trading so maybe time to end my contribution here )

I think that is all very condescending actually but is very typical of the staunch remainer/establishment view.

I know exactly what I voted for and I know the very many reasons why I voted to leave. I lived and worked overseas in the EU myself for several years (as more recently has one of my kids). I also worked on international cross border import/export/manufacturing/invoicing/accounting/Just In Time systems for a multinational company for many years (both pre and post Maastricht) and I can understand exactly why it is in Multinational's interests to push their largely remain agenda and IMO few of the reasons given are genuine or to the advantage of the public at large. I consider myself to have a very good understanding of the main advantages and disadvantages of leaving. Nobody has a complete vision of the future (Leave, Remain, BRINO, EEA, no deal or WTO). I could and still can make a decision on what I think is the best option for the future of my country, my kids, my family and myself.

The certainties that you seem to think should have been published and guaranteed in visions/white papers/impact assessments are not available for a referendum or indeed any democratic decision such as a general election. They would in any case just be possible projections and subject to be manipulated to help achieve desired political outcomes. Project Fear and the associated government funded leaflet did set out a vision on the expected immediate and medium term impacts of a leave vote. It was wrong by a very wide margin. Lack of certainty on the future mean does not mean that democratic decisions should be abandoned and that we should all just leave it to the so called "experts" in future .Democracy may have its problems but it is generally proven to be far, far better than the alternative systems of government.

[ShaunWhite]

I know exactly what I voted for

As did everyone no doubt, the problem is that everyone voted for what they hoped for without knowing what was actually possible. The only certainty is that with only 52% wanting any sort of decoupling, the hardline leavers weren't the majority.

Anyone could see that there was never such a thing as a simple 'leave' and should see that there is no such thing as 'no deal'. Industry, medicines, energy security, food security, scientific research, defence, the air space, the land border etc etc etc and the 80% of national income which comes from the service sector, all require some sort of agreements to be in place, ie, deals. WTO is touted but apart from a few imports/exports it covers almost nothing.

Democracy may have its problems but it is generally proven to be far, far better than the alternative systems of government.

Democracy just puts power in the hands of the least well informed (not brexit, I mean things like economic policy). Most great civilisations weren't democracies, they were benign dictatorships and that includes the Greeks and the Romans who's idea of democracy was quite different to ours and was more akin to a House of Lords.

[BetScalper]

Anyone else think its a coincidence that the countries who will ultimately decide what deal we get are the ones we have had the most wars with.

Napoleon and Hitler must be rolling with laughter in their coffins....