I’m very new to BA but pretty experienced as far as horse racing but I wonder if I’m being rather naive.
I was watching the in play horse racing markets yesterday afternoon. It occurred to me that a few seconds before the winning post the winner is generally known and the price tumbles. If I set BA to fire a back bet into the market at say 1.2 for any runner that hits this price it seems to me I’m going to win nearly every time. Should my horse fail to win it is likely that another horse (the eventual winner) will also hit 1.2 and trigger a bet, mitigating my losses on the original bet.
So, for each £100 staked I should win £20 and when I lose I should lose £80. Therefore I’m betting at fours-on and need to be successful better than 80% of the time to win. Yesterday’s movements/results seemed to indicate a success rate of around 95%.
I wonder if this basic idea could be tweaked to lay the bet back into the market to (virtually) guarantee a profit, say to steal 5 pips from a race that’s all but over.
Can someone with a bit more experience explain the flaw in my idea? Do the long term statistics say that I will come out on the wrong side of the equation? Will I have trouble getting filled at this late stage of a race? Is this something that works on paper but not in the real world?
Any feedback greatly welcome.
Mr Naive
You do know that the pictures are about 4 seconds behind, hence the winner hitting 1.01 before you seeing it win.
If you fired in a back at 1.2 I imagine what would happen is that most of the time that the horse goes on to win, your bet wont be matched. There will be occassions in a tight finish where you may get filled and the horse goes on to win.
Though what is more likely to happen is that you will miss the price on most occassions when the horse goes on to win, though you will almost certainly be filled everytime the horse ends up losing. There is a slight delay when firing in orders in running.
If you fired in a back at 1.2 I imagine what would happen is that most of the time that the horse goes on to win, your bet wont be matched. There will be occassions in a tight finish where you may get filled and the horse goes on to win.
Though what is more likely to happen is that you will miss the price on most occassions when the horse goes on to win, though you will almost certainly be filled everytime the horse ends up losing. There is a slight delay when firing in orders in running.
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jimmythecard
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- Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:05 pm
I’m not sure of the relevance of watching the event on TV. I’m relying on the market taking me into the bet and the time difference seems to me to be of no matter – or am I missing something? My bet is automatically triggered at 1.2, if lay money is in the market surely I should get filled providing my stake isn’t inordinately large? Admittedly there may be some slippage owing to the time delay whilst my wager gets into the system but surely using automated betting software will minimalize this delay?
I’m not trying to be ‘Jack the Judge’ and analyze the race in running but relying on the fact that the betting market will shorten up the likely winner’s price, put me automatically into the market because there will always be a certain amount of lay money available because other traders are hedging their positions.
I’m not trying to be ‘Jack the Judge’ and analyze the race in running but relying on the fact that the betting market will shorten up the likely winner’s price, put me automatically into the market because there will always be a certain amount of lay money available because other traders are hedging their positions.
Ive never tried anything like this so am not speaking from experience.
Though my initial impressions would be that for the majority of horses that hit 1.2, by the time your bet reaches the market the ones that win will already be 1.01, and you wont get matched.
Some will get filled at 1.2, and may even go out to much bigger before coming back into win again.
Others that dont win will go out to 1000, matching your bet in the process.
It might look good on paper, but probably wouldnt work in reality. Its the same as laying the field at 1.01. On paper its a great strategy, but in reality you will only get filled on the ones that go on to win, and wont get enough matched on the losers.
As i say ive never tried this, thats just what i think will happen. Try it and see is the only way to find out. If it is a winning strategy that you have stumbled upon, nobody is going to confirm that for you on here and ruin their own profits!
Though my initial impressions would be that for the majority of horses that hit 1.2, by the time your bet reaches the market the ones that win will already be 1.01, and you wont get matched.
Some will get filled at 1.2, and may even go out to much bigger before coming back into win again.
Others that dont win will go out to 1000, matching your bet in the process.
It might look good on paper, but probably wouldnt work in reality. Its the same as laying the field at 1.01. On paper its a great strategy, but in reality you will only get filled on the ones that go on to win, and wont get enough matched on the losers.
As i say ive never tried this, thats just what i think will happen. Try it and see is the only way to find out. If it is a winning strategy that you have stumbled upon, nobody is going to confirm that for you on here and ruin their own profits!
JTC,
A back bet at 1.2 will not automatically get you into the market unless the market is at or below 1.2 already!
You can only leave lay bets lying below the market to fill automatically as the market moves throught that price.
If you put a 1,2 back bet into the market when the price is above 1.2 , you will automatically get the better odds of the market at that time , i.e. if the market is coming in and at 1.5 and you submit 1.2, you will get 1.5.
So sounds like your idea is flawed.
A back bet at 1.2 will not automatically get you into the market unless the market is at or below 1.2 already!
You can only leave lay bets lying below the market to fill automatically as the market moves throught that price.
If you put a 1,2 back bet into the market when the price is above 1.2 , you will automatically get the better odds of the market at that time , i.e. if the market is coming in and at 1.5 and you submit 1.2, you will get 1.5.
So sounds like your idea is flawed.
Hi JTC
Had a little play with your idea using the Automation tab in Bet Angel. With this you set your rules in the settings tab, I set a very low from odds to 1.2, left the WOM as is and set the place bet at odds lower than 1.2.
Also I set the global settings to have an offset and also a fill/kill and a stop loss.
Then when my bet is triggered I will either get an offset matched or hit the stop loss.
I have managed to get the offset filled over a few races this afternoon I have made small profits although I have not had a race where 2 horses are contesting the lead so no double 1.2's matched.
Maybe lucky so far but I have made over 10% profit on my admittedly small bank.
Alan
Had a little play with your idea using the Automation tab in Bet Angel. With this you set your rules in the settings tab, I set a very low from odds to 1.2, left the WOM as is and set the place bet at odds lower than 1.2.
Also I set the global settings to have an offset and also a fill/kill and a stop loss.
Then when my bet is triggered I will either get an offset matched or hit the stop loss.
I have managed to get the offset filled over a few races this afternoon I have made small profits although I have not had a race where 2 horses are contesting the lead so no double 1.2's matched.
Maybe lucky so far but I have made over 10% profit on my admittedly small bank.
Alan
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jimmythecard
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- Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:05 pm
I appreciate that Betfair will fill a back bet at the best available price so my idea was to trigger the back bet at around 1.3 asking for odds of 1.2. That way I should be sitting in the market as the horse’s price shortens down from 1.3 towards 1.2 and shorter with a good chance of being matched somewhere between 1.2 and 1.3.
Alan, could you let me know what offsets and fill/kill, stop loss settings you were using. 10% ROI isn’t too shoddy from a raw idea...maybe this one’s got legs.
Alan, could you let me know what offsets and fill/kill, stop loss settings you were using. 10% ROI isn’t too shoddy from a raw idea...maybe this one’s got legs.
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jimmythecard
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:05 pm
Thanks Alan, I'm away until next Wednesday but I'll give it a try/tinker for real when I get back. If you have any joy taking this further in the meantime do let us know.
Jimmy
Quick update, not gone so well since Thurs.
Had a couple of close finishes Fri/Sat with 2 horses battling out finish and lost all my profit from Thurs. Also I was lucky on Thurs as other races only getting a few ticks offset or hitting stop loss. No real profit made!
Have tried a couple of times with your original idea to just place bet at 1.2 with no offset. Thinking I would make bigger profit when it did work but again involved in close finishes so ended up losing again.
See what you make of it.
Alan
Quick update, not gone so well since Thurs.
Had a couple of close finishes Fri/Sat with 2 horses battling out finish and lost all my profit from Thurs. Also I was lucky on Thurs as other races only getting a few ticks offset or hitting stop loss. No real profit made!
Have tried a couple of times with your original idea to just place bet at 1.2 with no offset. Thinking I would make bigger profit when it did work but again involved in close finishes so ended up losing again.
See what you make of it.
Alan
Personally, I'd rather lay all horses at 1.20
Perhaps I'm speaking as a full-time trader there, but when people start chasing prices down like that without viewing the race, it ultimately will end in tears. Your strike rate will be high, but any losers will destroy a succession of winners.
I'd fancy my chances to have larger profits than you over a period of time
Perhaps I'm speaking as a full-time trader there, but when people start chasing prices down like that without viewing the race, it ultimately will end in tears. Your strike rate will be high, but any losers will destroy a succession of winners.
I'd fancy my chances to have larger profits than you over a period of time
I would tend to agree with you, my own records from 'normal' betting show that only a few odds on shots losing soon lead to a losing situation.
However I think JTC was maybe thinking of using this strategy on selected races (he says he is experienced in horse racing) where he feels there is a strong chance of a dominant horse or his form study is a lot better than mine!!
However I think JTC was maybe thinking of using this strategy on selected races (he says he is experienced in horse racing) where he feels there is a strong chance of a dominant horse or his form study is a lot better than mine!!
To me it seems it's better to back horses trading at 1.20 in-play then laying all horses at 1.20. To breakeven laying at 1.20 you need tight finish in 1 out of 6 races which I don't think happens.
Therefore you're marginally better off backing, however, the problem with this approach is that you can only do it through automation in BA. The automation doesn't work perfectly when a horse comes out of nowhere to win the race as your 1st bets get matched quite easily but the back on the 2nd one, and possibly the winner, likely to end up not matching due to the late finisher swallowing up all lay bets between say 1.8 to 1.02 to in less than a second.
So backing is preferable even there's some way of securing that all your back bets at 1.20 matches, alas history suggests otherwise.
Therefore you're marginally better off backing, however, the problem with this approach is that you can only do it through automation in BA. The automation doesn't work perfectly when a horse comes out of nowhere to win the race as your 1st bets get matched quite easily but the back on the 2nd one, and possibly the winner, likely to end up not matching due to the late finisher swallowing up all lay bets between say 1.8 to 1.02 to in less than a second.
So backing is preferable even there's some way of securing that all your back bets at 1.20 matches, alas history suggests otherwise.