Draw efficiency

[Bet Angel]

Took a sample of 13084 matches this morning and looked at Betfair price vs what happened in the match. We excluded all draw odds of less than 3.00

From the remaining data, the market forecasted the draw to occur 25.9% of the time in this sample set. The actual occurance of the draw was 25%.

[CaerMyrddin]

I am somewhat surprised that this happens, as LTD strategy is so popular and I thought that maybe it was bringing the price up.

[mister man]

and if you included odds of less than 3 ???

[Bet Angel]

Why do you think I have excluded draws priced under 3?

[Iron]

So it would appear that the net result was that neither the backers nor the layers gained, and the only overall winner was the house...

Jeff

Took a sample of 13084 matches this morning and looked at Betfair price vs what happened in the match. We excluded all draw odds of less than 3.00

From the remaining data, the market forecasted the draw to occur 25.9% of the time in this sample set. The actual occurance of the draw was 25%.

[CaerMyrddin]

It also seems fair to exclude all those alledgely fixed italian games. And how do I miss them!

[mister man]

Took a sample of 13084 matches this morning and looked at Betfair price vs what happened in the match. We excluded all draw odds of less than 3.00
im sorry i must have misuderstood...or as george w bush said i mis underestimated you. !!!

[Bet Angel]

It also seems fair to exclude all those alledgely fixed italian games. And how do I miss them!

In a fair match it would be a surprise to see a draw priced under 3.00. We looked at a cut off point at both ends of the data. On the high end of the data we saw nothing radically unusual so left that. When we looked at the low end though we saw 146 matches whose draw price seemed too short. It seemed sensible to exclude this 1%.

When we examined the data further this looked sensible as 80% of the matches priced under 3.00 were Italian. Greece and France also had a few matches that looked unusal, but were probably in the bounds of some sort of normality but still a bit short.

[mister man]

the french and italian odds are probably due to the stats currently thisseason
serie a - FT 33.3% draw
b - 34.7

french 33.8 and 34.4..

so not that unusual really.

[Bet Angel]

Not sure how that relates to historic data to be honest, A reminder for those that didn't see the original discussions on the Italian stuff.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1487&hilit=cheivo

[herbie]

were the majority of the italian games under 3 towards the end of the season, when teams have very little to lose or gain?