Hi all,
I'm another of that apparently, extreme minority, which will deliberately let a trade (horse racing) go in play, in certain circumstances, which are :-
1. If I consider the "off" price unrealistic as a result of market manipulation
2. The race is not a sprint, and
3. The race is not a steeplechase.
It is true that, on occasion, I have to trade out in a worse position as the price moves resolutely against me, but fortunately this is not usually the case,
cheers, P
Inplay trading .... Quitting tips please
-
mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
prediction...i do similar...
in play not on sprints etc
what % of times does the market resolutely move against you..
my experience is about 20% -30% of the time my position never betters, and therefore i take a bigger hit...
what about you...
and it is a real @*##** when it happens
in play not on sprints etc
what % of times does the market resolutely move against you..
my experience is about 20% -30% of the time my position never betters, and therefore i take a bigger hit...
what about you...
and it is a real @*##** when it happens
I use to trade in play. I summed up this is not trading its Gambaling. You might aswell go up the local bookmakers and give your money away. When you trade sucsessfully you are doing the same as a book maker. When you red up if a trade go,s against you you are doing the same as a bookmaker laying of to the lowest liability to pay out. Its about getting as many trades as you possibly can, forget the losses big or small, keep Swing trading as much as you can when you have a large loss
Hi MM,my experience is about 20% -30% of the time my position never betters, and therefore i take a bigger hit...
what about you...
invariably the moves I'm suspicious of, are associated with odds-on favourites or long shots opposing odds-on favourites. In both of those instances the market recovers to the position I will accept,in over 90%,of the time.
I suppose that I should have said in my original post that I don't use this technique where I've managed to create an unfavourable position (with remarkable ease, usually) trading horses in the price range greater than evens(ish) and less than 10 to 1(ish).
Cheers, P
Hi MM,my experience is about 20% -30% of the time my position never betters, and therefore i take a bigger hit...
what about you...
invariably the moves I'm suspicious of, are associated with odds-on favourites or long shots opposing odds-on favourites. In both of those instances the market recovers to the position I will accept,in over 90%,of the time.
I suppose that I should have said in my original post that I don't use this technique where I've managed to create an unfavourable position (with remarkable ease, usually) trading horses in the price range greater than evens(ish) and less than 10 to 1(ish).
Cheers, P
Letting trades go in-play is not always a bad thing
as long as it's part of your strategy.
i do it myself and produces great results.
Most people will say it's a bad idea but that's only because they are doing it for the wrong reasons ie they can not take a loss.
also most only do it from a losing position and
of cause this way you will have all of the the big losses associated but none of the big profits.
so either you quit doing it or make it part of your strategy permanently would be my advice.
as long as it's part of your strategy.
i do it myself and produces great results.
Most people will say it's a bad idea but that's only because they are doing it for the wrong reasons ie they can not take a loss.
also most only do it from a losing position and
of cause this way you will have all of the the big losses associated but none of the big profits.
so either you quit doing it or make it part of your strategy permanently would be my advice.
Not really much too it
it's mostly just a different approach to that of others i guess.
if a trader say had a 1000-00 bank and was making 3% per day, letting a trade go inplay for him would be suicidal, possibly wipeing out 80-90 % or 100% even in one go
.
Im just the sort of person who feels more confortable being very aggressive with much smaller stakes, my bank size might be the same as above but im just using say 50-00 of it.
Im still aiming to make similar ammouts as the man using the 1000 quid pre race.
so i have to go in-play when a trade goes wrong.
the difference is i can afford to lose all my stake.
to me it's no different to the pre race trader haveing a stop loss of 50-00 on a trade when it goes against him.
it's mostly just a different approach to that of others i guess.
if a trader say had a 1000-00 bank and was making 3% per day, letting a trade go inplay for him would be suicidal, possibly wipeing out 80-90 % or 100% even in one go
.Im just the sort of person who feels more confortable being very aggressive with much smaller stakes, my bank size might be the same as above but im just using say 50-00 of it.
Im still aiming to make similar ammouts as the man using the 1000 quid pre race.
so i have to go in-play when a trade goes wrong.
the difference is i can afford to lose all my stake.
to me it's no different to the pre race trader haveing a stop loss of 50-00 on a trade when it goes against him.
Agree MM but it is a lower risk and much more pridictable than standing in a bookmakers waiting for that windfall. You have to have will power to get pre race trading to a standard, i use to hate it, but when i started to find indicators graphs (reading them) and looking for all kind of signals that warrented a price move, i through inplay running in the bin, my records showed i broke even over a year period when i thought i was in profit, pre race trading shows the bankroll looking different after one monthmister man wrote:I agree with Mr Tulip.
I could add, that its about most peoples reluctance to red out, rather than green out, and this applies both to in play and before the off.
whilst pre off is less volatile and less risky, going in play has potential for greater loss or profit, and isnt that risk reward ratio the very essence of gambling.
and if you are going to say trading isnt gambling, it is, when a price moves for you or against you, you are just using your judgement and experience to predict it
Hi All,
I thought I'd add to this thread with my take on why it happens.
I reckon virtually everyone can and does put their stop losses on, or decide where they'll stop out manually, for a race or two. The problem starts to arise when the perception that "natural justice" is not occurring, arises in the mind. It may be after a couple of races or it may be after five, ten or more races, but there is a trigger beyond which the mind will not accept yet another "injustice". There's a feeling of victimisation and a desire to hit back. Although, I only play with stakes which I can easily replenish, I'm not above this feeling so I can empathise with those who experience it. Today, so far, I've had five large moves against my position in seven races, the last so large that I considered it was in my interest to go "in play". As it happened, at my chosen exit time things had deteriorated and I added some 36% to my pre-race liability, but psychologically, my state had improved.
The answer to not going in play? Well for me, it revolves around improving. After 19 months I still have no idea whether or not I have an edge (results would suggest not). Should I ever develop an edge then I suspect that part of it will revolve around being good enough to avoid accruing a personally unacceptable liability pre-race. Maybe then I'll investigate other sports and go through the whole exercise once more,
be lucky, P
I thought I'd add to this thread with my take on why it happens.
I reckon virtually everyone can and does put their stop losses on, or decide where they'll stop out manually, for a race or two. The problem starts to arise when the perception that "natural justice" is not occurring, arises in the mind. It may be after a couple of races or it may be after five, ten or more races, but there is a trigger beyond which the mind will not accept yet another "injustice". There's a feeling of victimisation and a desire to hit back. Although, I only play with stakes which I can easily replenish, I'm not above this feeling so I can empathise with those who experience it. Today, so far, I've had five large moves against my position in seven races, the last so large that I considered it was in my interest to go "in play". As it happened, at my chosen exit time things had deteriorated and I added some 36% to my pre-race liability, but psychologically, my state had improved.
The answer to not going in play? Well for me, it revolves around improving. After 19 months I still have no idea whether or not I have an edge (results would suggest not). Should I ever develop an edge then I suspect that part of it will revolve around being good enough to avoid accruing a personally unacceptable liability pre-race. Maybe then I'll investigate other sports and go through the whole exercise once more,
be lucky, P
I must admit, when I first read this thread I felt a little smug. I'd been trading for 12 months and never had problem with in-play trading. I found it easy to take my losses and move on. I almost weighed in with some tips.
But something has happened to me in the last month. From out of nowhere, I am suddenly finding myself letting often innocuous situations slip in-play, then watching the market slip further and further against me until - boom - another three figure loss kills the day.
It is only when the race is over that I realise I have done it AGAIN.
After 12 straight months of comfortable profits ranging from AU$200 to AU$1,200 (I'm not a big player), I am now $1,400 down since mid Feb alone. The in-play catastrophies stick out a mile and add up to over $2,700, with a Win:Loss ratio of 0:20.
I took a break for over a week and came back today all refreshed. Going great, 3 hours in, about $100 up, par for the course for me, and not an in-play in sight. Then I was waiting at the front of the queue for my back bet to get filled for a small profit, kept waiting, it didn't get taken and it slipped in-play and, because of a terrible start by the 2nd favourite, the market shot against me.
I tried to move my back bet to take a loss, but failed to keep up with the market and get taken. It end up costing me $500.
I honestly don't know where this has come from. It feels like a disease. And it's not as simple as finding a trading loss unacceptable and purposely going in-play - it's happening as often when I am in profit. It's like I don't even notice, until I sit back after the race is over.
This could well lead to a post in the anger-management thread!!! If I have not blown my bank by then. After 12 months profit building, I have lost half of it inside 4 weeks.
But something has happened to me in the last month. From out of nowhere, I am suddenly finding myself letting often innocuous situations slip in-play, then watching the market slip further and further against me until - boom - another three figure loss kills the day.
It is only when the race is over that I realise I have done it AGAIN.
After 12 straight months of comfortable profits ranging from AU$200 to AU$1,200 (I'm not a big player), I am now $1,400 down since mid Feb alone. The in-play catastrophies stick out a mile and add up to over $2,700, with a Win:Loss ratio of 0:20.
I took a break for over a week and came back today all refreshed. Going great, 3 hours in, about $100 up, par for the course for me, and not an in-play in sight. Then I was waiting at the front of the queue for my back bet to get filled for a small profit, kept waiting, it didn't get taken and it slipped in-play and, because of a terrible start by the 2nd favourite, the market shot against me.
I tried to move my back bet to take a loss, but failed to keep up with the market and get taken. It end up costing me $500.
I honestly don't know where this has come from. It feels like a disease. And it's not as simple as finding a trading loss unacceptable and purposely going in-play - it's happening as often when I am in profit. It's like I don't even notice, until I sit back after the race is over.
This could well lead to a post in the anger-management thread!!! If I have not blown my bank by then. After 12 months profit building, I have lost half of it inside 4 weeks.
Sounds like you are going through a tough time. Sorry to hear that.grigsy wrote: I am now $1,400 down since mid Feb alone. The in-play catastrophies stick out a mile and add up to over $2,700, with a Win:Loss ratio of 0:20.
How do you work out these stats? Presumably you complete your trade quite often in-play successfully so these 20 losses are only when the market goes against you. As you stated today you tried to trade out in play but the market moved too quickly.
Is this on the UK markets or the OZ markets? If you are putting 500 dollars into the IP OZ markets the market is probably running away from your money.
I have said this many times before, if you don't touch trades that go inplay you will be about even over time, but will need a big bank and big balls to do this.
Perhaps a BA setting preventing bets to be entered in play would help focus some people minds.
Any way Good Luck, I often go into these dark places and question myself.
-
rubysglory
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
Grigsy,grigsy wrote: After 12 straight months of comfortable profits ranging from AU$200 to AU$1,200 (I'm not a big player),
Are I correct to assume you are playing the Aust races ? If so, although I generally do not In Play, I have noticed that in Australia the best trading markets (Pre and Post Off ) are the Metro courses of Victoria and NSW on Saturday's only. The other states offer poor IP liquidity in particular. Further more , I have it on good account from a In Play trader colleague, that ' you must make your market" . You must preset your bets prior to in play if you want to caputure the market. The market is generally too quick and liquidity too small during IP to enable trading via mouse and keyboard.
Hope this helps and good luck.
rg
-
oddstrader
- Posts: 344
- Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
But something has happened to me in the last month. From out of nowhere, I am suddenly finding myself letting often innocuous situations slip
I honestly don't know where this has come from. It feels like a disease. And it's not as simple as finding a trading loss
I have to confess to a little slip myself this month the first in a very long time and all down to getting extremely annoyed with the market, I think this month has had a lot to do with the problem it's been so hard to get matched and most if any movement is happening in the final seconds which no doubt leads to some of the money going in play and as we all know in play is cancer to traders,
I honestly don't know where this has come from. It feels like a disease. And it's not as simple as finding a trading loss
I have to confess to a little slip myself this month the first in a very long time and all down to getting extremely annoyed with the market, I think this month has had a lot to do with the problem it's been so hard to get matched and most if any movement is happening in the final seconds which no doubt leads to some of the money going in play and as we all know in play is cancer to traders,
Of course, there are others that I managed to trade out successfully during the race, but they generally average out (in terms of profits, losses and scratches) and there aren't many of them anyway. It seems that every time I end up in-play, I don't manage to get out.sweetybt wrote:How do you work out these stats? Presumably you complete your trade quite often in-play successfully so these 20 losses are only when the market goes against you.
I had an open lay order that I couldn't offset with a back bet, so my order was only $100 (Oz markets). I think my main problem has been the IP liquidity in small meetings (going IP is never planned for me). Today was Flemington though and just one of those things when the horse I had the excess lay on flew straight into the lead and the only other horse in the market took a bump at the start and came out last. There were hardly any layers IP and I wasn't quick enough to pick up the crumbs.sweetybt wrote:Is this on the UK markets or the OZ markets? If you are putting 500 dollars into the IP OZ markets the market is probably running away from your money.
I'm thinking I might take the rest of the month off from trading. I was really proud of never having a losing month but, meh, I'll have to get over it.