Newcastle AW

[stueytrader]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

[Derek27]

There's a strategy for every market!

Not saying that I've mastered these markets myself, but most of my trades are not based on predicting which way the market will go but finding a point where I think it's more likely than not that the price will end up on the right side of the trade at some point.

[ruthlessimon]

We've gotta be careful here.

Any strategy is guaranteed to have a worse course.

I've added one of my strats below

In theory everything under Bangor, I should stop trading - but I know, instinctively, that'd be such a huge error. Even cutting Kempton, because my best course Wolves has a direct link (AW)

Something I haven't done, but probably should do, is have my sample divided. Maybe monthly, & see which courses are consistently bad/good.

Cos next month Kempton could be top, Wolves bottom - but if Chepstow is always in the bottom 5% - I think that's a far better argument to cut out.

[ShaunWhite]

If the top & bottom 5 or so have something in common then I think that's useful, but if Ascot sits between Wolves and Fairlyhouse then it's just that somewhere has to be top and somewhere has to be bottom. And if the whole lot add up to zero, then if some are up then some have to be down.

It comes back to the 'why'.

[ruthlessimon]

Something I haven't done, but probably should do, is have my sample divided. Maybe monthly, & see which courses are consistently bad/good.

Kempton had a particularly bad start - had I started the analysis a month later, Kempton would've been pretty much central (in the main graph)

[ShaunWhite]

Are those divided by the number of races? And although there's variation, is it significant or just a couple of rogue results?

[Derek27]

We've gotta be careful here.

Any strategy is guaranteed to have a worse course.

This is why there's a strategy for every market. I wouldn't dream of approaching Cheltenham the same way as Kempton.

[ruthlessimon]

Are those divided by the number of races? And although there's variation, is it significant or just a couple of rogue results?

Divided by races?

It looks rogue - but I'm not quite sure how to utilise it. As, under my current understanding, any attempt to correct it will completely change the expectancy of all other trades.

i.e. A price based stoploss would cut that loser - yet might cause 100 new losses elsewhere (outweighing a single bad trade)

I think the answer is quite simple really. I then started cutting out errors, basically where my biggest losses were, and that led me to a selective approach for that strategy.

[Dallas]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

Each AW meeting tends to be more volatile due to the lower lower-quality racing and liquidity, Newcastle AW only opened about 2 years ago so there is much less info/data for traders and punters to base their decisions on, which can lead to more indecisiveness

[Derek27]

If you think Newcastle's bad, Kempton's even worse!

Buckland Boy, 21-10 Kempton.jpg

Tinsmith.jpg

Macho Mover.jpg

[wearthefoxhat]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

[Naffman]

Newcastle seems to be a very hard surface too, horses that like a bit of cut there will struggle massively

[ruthlessimon]

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

That's an interesting shout, certainly one for the notebook

[stueytrader]

Thanks all for the very interesting replies.

It was just that I've always found Newcastle to be the track that is most likely to show heavy moves, which have no relation to the actual races run after the pre-market. Though that may just be in my sample (which is not complete).

It is an interesting question I believe, which become our favourite/least favourite tracks to play, and why that may be.

[stueytrader]

Can anyone make any sense of this track for trading (and/or punting)?

Moves just seem to have no relation to anything from my analysis.

Newcastle AW
Mid-High draw preferable for 5f, 6f,7f races.

An angle could be looking for something with fair early pace for a B2L approach, conversely, those low drawn, L2B.

Thanks for the ideas there, I would roughly agree with some of that in general - my problem is that I'm not really an inplay trader personally, though I agree there may be some ideas in that respect.

The odd thing I've found (as my above post) is that sometimes those that look like inplay BTLs, which I feel should shorten pre, actually drift heavy pre and then possibly shorten only when inplay - which for a pre-trader taking a loss can be rather frustrating!