How often does the market get it right.

[Derek27]

Derek - you can lead a horse to water but you can’t....etc. etc
So I’ll just leave it with you mate. It works.

I never said it doesn't!!

20 successful gamblers can have 20 successful methods, but one man can't use all of them, nor would he need to.

[Derek27]

Derek - you can lead a horse to water but you can’t....etc. etc
So I’ll just leave it with you mate. It works.

i know how hard it can be to convince folk of new approaches etc, i guess the best testimony to set the tone would be to post up a sub-set of today's selections. if i were doing this, i'd opt to ping up the bullet proof entries only, that way you'll satisfy the naysayers and at the same time demonstrate the confidence in this approach.

I don't think that would satisfy anyone. I was a successful punter but there were days when I backed all losers and somebody who uses a pin probably got a treble up that day!

[GBDundee]

Ten races just isn't a big enough sample. Race rules change, handicaps become non-handicaps and vice versa, which would make such data useless.

The crowd is not very wise and backs 160% overrounds!

One thing for sure, all these horses at this track with the same jockeys have never raced together 10 times..maybe there is more to this than one first thinks?

Analysing races where the horses have met several times can be quite boring and harder to find value. It's the harder to assess horses whose form often gets underestimated and overlooked in the betting, which results in betting opportunities.

Sorry maybe i didn't word that well, Why would the form of punters or puntersform NOT be of value? Surely if the top 2 have won a specific race year after year for ten years would you look further down the field...and for 100% sure it is easier to read/understand punters form then to look at 12 horses and do it all yourself, when tens of thousands of punters have played that race each and every year and have got it right ...or wrong (outsider won)

[Derek27]

It could be argued that today's race is entirely different from last years race and previous years are irrelevant. A handicap may have a good record for favourites but one particular year has several lightly raced horses with potential, making the favourite poor value. Someone who studies trends will be oblivious to it, whereas punter who studies the here and now may spot some value bets.

[GBDundee]

It could be argued that today's race is entirely different from last years race and previous years are irrelevant. A handicap may have a good record for favourites but one particular year has several lightly raced horses with potential, making the favourite poor value. Someone who studies trends will be oblivious to it, whereas punter who studies the here and now may spot some value bets.

In that mix wouldn't you a agree that the a number of punters would have also noticed what you are saying and hence price of fave is higher than previous years as more money is going on the "lightly raced horses with potential" so if every year showed the top 2 won at a BSP of between 2.3 - 3.2 and this year is 4.8 this would tell you they are not as confident as previous years. You can read a lot more from 100,000 punters than any single punter can know.

[foxwood]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

[Derek27]

I'm talking about horses that get overlooked in the betting, resulting in a falsely price favourite. Don't forget the vast majority of punters lose, many of them don't even understand form or value. I don't think using the opinion of tens of thousands of losing punters is a good idea.

Valda didn't say what ROI% the group was making but I reckon most statistically based methods will make a very small percentage profit at best - which is fine if it's easier and less work. But by studying the game and being on top of everything a much higher ROI% is achievable.

[Derek27]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

I wouldn't have an issue paying for sex but I'm far too proud to ever pay for betting advice.

[jimibt]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.

grr- i hate being a cynic!!

btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol

[Jukebox]

How do you define "the market getting it right" ?

If the favorite at 3.0 wins - does that count as "the market getting it right"? When the market has effectively said that the field is a strong odds on favorite.

[Derek27]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.

grr- i hate being a cynic!!

btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol

We're all waiting for the conclusion of your investigation.

I remember that case well and I don't think he's been back to the forum.

[Dallas]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.

grr- i hate being a cynic!!

btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol

Think that one will go down as one of the greats!

An unfortunate drawback of how much the forum has grown means it's now attracting a larger number of touters

[GBDundee]

... there is a 7 day no strings, no card details, trial.

so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run

caveat emptor

i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.

grr- i hate being a cynic!!

btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol

I am in the same group as Valda and I can say for a fact he does not own it..he like all others in the group are helping spread the word, as all in the group are enjoying a very high ROI far better than any of you in here would think and are just trying help those who don't do so well get more out of there racing. As for the 7 day trial nothing forces you to go on to pay and no details are taken for you to have the trial. You can see the results everyday on twitter, or read this months issue of 3 Furlongs Out....

[gazuty]

So a small group of people discover something that produces a fantastic roi.

Do you

A keep it to yourselves and make out like bandits until the cows come home or

B tell so many other people it moves the market and ends the edge

The constant pleading that it "really, really works" suggests the lady doth protest too much., methinks.

[GBDundee]

So a small group of people discover something that produces a fantastic roi.

Do you

A keep it to yourselves and make out like bandits until the cows come home or

B tell so many other people it moves the market and ends the edge

The constant pleading that it "really, really works" suggests the lady doth protest too much., methinks.

if closed minds only came with closed mouths.