so after 7 days it will cost money ie you are promoting a tipster service that you are involved with and maybe even run
caveat emptor
i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.
grr- i hate being a cynic!!
btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol
I am in the same group as Valda and I can say for a fact he does not own it..he like all others in the group are helping spread the word, as all in the group are enjoying a very high ROI far better than any of you in here would think and are just trying help those who don't do so well get more out of there racing. As for the 7 day trial nothing forces you to go on to pay and no details are taken for you to have the trial. You can see the results everyday on twitter, or read this months issue of 3 Furlongs Out....
Until now I thought I was talking to a forum member who independently shares Valda's approach to betting. And you both joined at the same time!!
What's the point in boasting a "very high ROI" unless you say what it is? What is a "very high ROI"??
How do I know it's higher than my ROI%?
Unless it's over 1000% I wouldn't be interested because I'm sure I'd find a system seller somewhere who boasts 1000% plus!
So a small group of people discover something that produces a fantastic roi.
Do you
A keep it to yourselves and make out like bandits until the cows come home or
B tell so many other people it moves the market and ends the edge
The constant pleading that it "really, really works" suggests the lady doth protest too much., methinks.
if closed minds only came with closed mouths.
I think you may have picked the wrong forum to 'spread the word'. Many on here are making a living or making regular profits from trading and content with what we're doing. I'm always looking for new openings and trying to improve my trading but what you're suggesting, with all my betting experience behind me, seems more like a quantum leap backwards. When I was betting I took almost everything into consideration including the race history. In my opinion the evidential weight that race history amounts to is very small. It only benefits people who don't study or understand much about form. If you're knowledgeable about horse racing you see the complete picture with the blinkers off.
Last edited by Derek27 on Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
i didn't want to be the one to bring this up, but felt like the usual approach. new user, lurk for a bit, then ping out an amazing service discovery.
grr- i hate being a cynic!!
btw -anyone recall the *racing system* from a few months ago where it turned out the guy claiming amazing results was actually the director (as confirmed at companise house) of the service!! - lol
I am in the same group as Valda and I can say for a fact he does not own it..he like all others in the group are helping spread the word, as all in the group are enjoying a very high ROI far better than any of you in here would think and are just trying help those who don't do so well get more out of there racing. As for the 7 day trial nothing forces you to go on to pay and no details are taken for you to have the trial. You can see the results everyday on twitter, or read this months issue of 3 Furlongs Out....
Until now I thought I was talking to a forum member who independently shares Valda's approach to betting. And you both joined at the same time!!
What's the point in boasting a "very high ROI" unless you say what it is? What is a "very high ROI"??
How do I know it's higher than my ROI%?
Unless it's over 1000% I wouldn't be interested because I'm sure I'd find a system seller somewhere who boasts 1000% plus!
Been on here for over 2 years..and now remember why I don't pop in and share/help more. With any luck we will have opened a few minds and they will come back to tell you all. GL see you all in 2 years when I forget again.
I have this great system: If you back a horse that was born in July that is ridden by a jockey who was married in August at a price that is lower than the age of your dog then the ROI is huge! Unfortunately I can't provide any logic or evidence to quantify that it works so please don't ask.
I have this great system: If you back a horse that was born in July that is ridden by a jockey who was married in August at a price that is lower than the age of your dog then the ROI is huge! Unfortunately I can't provide any logic or evidence to quantify that it works so please don't ask.
Mr Pied Piper.
2 Poor House Road.
Punterville.
Logic and evidence all on the website - have a look if you want or don’t bother up to you.
I'm guessing this is the newly launched - developed in secret - system advertised in an email a friend received today - 14% gross ROI pm for only 30 bob a day.
Hats off to them - quite noble and philanthropic to sell it on rather than exploit it oneself in this day and age.
I'm guessing this is the newly launched - developed in secret - system advertised in an email a friend received today - 14% gross ROI pm for only 30 bob a day.
Hats off to them - quite noble and philanthropic to sell it on rather than exploit it oneself in this day and age.
All on the website - don’t go there if your not interested, it’s purely voluntary.
Imo the single most important factor when looking at racing or a horse race is knowing the variables...
For example: the best horses in a race do get beat, even horses far superior than its competition.
When assessing form the most important factor to include is how often could this horse get beat?
Pace, draw, ground conditions, lameness, health, poor jockey rides etc... the principles apply to every horse.
It’s important to look at horses as percentages...
Before betting on any horse I always ask myself one question. If they run this race 100 times how many times would it win?
This alone helps you think what price he should have been.
If Frankel ran the Sussex Stakes 100 times in the same condition as previously discussed you could argue that he’d win it 95 times.
It would be impossible to argue he’d win every single time.
Horses break blood vessels, get wound up, get sick have off days etc...
If you look at betting sp history you would know that the market is very very efficient. However if you were to check the markets history of prices at 9am on the day you notice how in effecient it was..
However even at sp there is still value to be had... on a more selective base...
There are 10,000 races a year.. over 10 years that is a huge sample... however if you were very selective with your betting your already at much greater odds of finding serious overlays... I think it’s highky unlikely to win long term backing 1,000s of horses a year.. but there are probably 100s if not a 1,000 races each year with value even at sp.
It is also important to note that favourites on the exchange are not too far away from the price of the industry bookmakers..
The value... is generally not in favourites and if you look at Bf records of favs and how often they win you will see how effecient favs are compared to bigger priced horses..
It also worth noting this question.
It is much easier to say a horse has a 50% chance of winning when it’s priced as 40%..
However if a horse is priced 5% chance of winning knowing that it’s chances are 4% is a very very hard skill to master.
Very very short price horses like 1.5 and less all and horses priced 10% or less 9/1 are very hard to design value because the gap in percentages are so small.
A 6/4 shot has 40% chance of winning... an even money shot has 50% implied chance... there is much more wiggle room to get it right or wrong...
If you looking for a real edge over the market... work at mastering how to price a horse either 2% or 5%.
You could say a horse has a 50% chance... and be 10% wrong and the bookies overround will still win long term...
However a horse priced 2% (50/1) is half the price of a horse priced 4% (25/1)
See how much harder it is to price the difference... you have a 2% wiggle room..
This is where the true value lies and that’s because it’s so difficult to master..
You could easily price a horse 2% but it could have a 10% chance. The margin difference is 8%. That is a tiny amount of room.. is very easy to get that wrong. That would be backing a horse at 50/1 when you have it 9/1.
It is much easier to consistently price a horse 20% or 30% or even 50%.. because if you price a horse 50% and betting it at the odds of 30% the industry margin is still big enough for to lose...
However if you can consistently price a horse 4% and and back it at 3% you have a huge advantage in the market..
How can you really be so sure with a 1% margin and be consistent?
This is where the value truly lives... horses price 10% or less and being consistently right...
This also means you could back hundred and hundreds of losers and still be massively ahead long term...
Backing horses at 2% could potentially have a losing run into the 1,000s.
You will do better long term backing favourites if you concentrated on pricing the 100/1 & 50/1 shots more accurately.. if there is 2 100/1 shots, 2 50/1 shots and a 33/1 shot in the market... these odds imply that is a total of 7% of the market.
However if you think these horses have a real chance of 12% of the market you automatically know that the favourite or shorter price horses are a market to stay away..
Too many people conctrate on pricing or creating tissue on fancied horses... improve you skill on the big prices and your automatically know which races are of interest.
I have this great system: If you back a horse that was born in July that is ridden by a jockey who was married in August at a price that is lower than the age of your dog then the ROI is huge! Unfortunately I can't provide any logic or evidence to quantify that it works so please don't ask.
Mr Pied Piper.
2 Poor House Road.
Punterville.
Logic and evidence all on the website - have a look if you want or don’t bother up to you.
Been on here for over 2 years..and now remember why I don't pop in and share/help more. With any luck we will have opened a few minds and they will come back to tell you all. GL see you all in 2 years when I forget again.
Type two gambler's fallacy, as defined by Gideon Keren and Charles Lewis, occurs when a gambler underestimates how many observations are needed to detect a favorable outcome, such as watching a roulette wheel for a length of time and then betting on the numbers that appear most often. Recency bias.
Gazuty would adapt this and say looking at the last 7 years of results of a particular race, say the Cox plate, and then thinking that will have any baring on today's results is misguided. Think about it.
