Champions league
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Your forecast to the total number of goals was pretty close, specially if you consider the Benfica 4-3 Lyon.
Massive move by Benfica pre-off btw
Massive move by Benfica pre-off btw
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SilentDave
- Posts: 199
- Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2010 11:30 am
Bale was unplayable tonight. Struggling to think of a better left sided midfielder in europe on current form.
If you use Soccer Mystic it will tell you at which point you would be unprofitable given certain time lines and when goals are scored and vice versa. At half time you can make a judgement on the match and if you think a goal is likely. I know from the ratings where this is more likely and by watching a match or keeping an eye on the stats I can tell if we are on track or not.rvdart01 wrote:How did you trade on this last night ?
Trading on over 2.5 is borderline betting, isn't it ?
By half time overs will have drifted to much larger numbers and retrace a lot if a goal is scored. When the next goal is scored you have a good chance of profiting. When the goal goes in you will already know how long you can hold the position while waiting for the next goal so you can decide then, when you know the time of that goal, whether to hold or let the position run.
If you look at the matches last night there were only two goals in the three matches I highlighted, but they ended up with ten in total at full time.
This evenings matches are much tighter and difficult to read. Shakhtar / Arsenal for example, if Arsenal were at home much easier. I would forecast 21/22 goals in total. Most matches look pretty even to be honest, apart from the obvious win for Chelsea.
Ordered from most to least goals.
Chelsea v Spartak Moscow
FC Basel v Roma
AC Milan v Real Madrid
CFR Cluj v B Munich
Shakhtar v Arsenal
Auxerre v Ajax
Zilina v Marseille
Partizan Belgrade v Braga
Ordered from most to least goals.
Chelsea v Spartak Moscow
FC Basel v Roma
AC Milan v Real Madrid
CFR Cluj v B Munich
Shakhtar v Arsenal
Auxerre v Ajax
Zilina v Marseille
Partizan Belgrade v Braga
Well all but one of the matches forecast over 2.5 goals and there were certain a lot of them this evening! The only match forecast as a low scoring one was the bottom match and the least likely to see goals so that was good. Suprised at the Zilina result, but the rest were on par. Didn't have as good a night this evening as last night.
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BennyBlanco
- Posts: 42
- Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:35 pm
Thank you for the ratings again Peter. Using these I managed make a reasonable profit (at my level) last night - appreciated.
I made some 'noises' in Europa league thread regarding how to price football matches and subsequently have been in discussion with a friend of mine with a statistics background. This for me is a project I can't get to until Christmas/ New year, then build, test as dry run format and then implement.
Is there any chance of having tonights ratings/forecast for the Europa League?! Or starting a ratings threa? I think however I may be pushing my luck, so I understand if you tell me to 'push off!' No offence intended.
Many thanks
Ben
I made some 'noises' in Europa league thread regarding how to price football matches and subsequently have been in discussion with a friend of mine with a statistics background. This for me is a project I can't get to until Christmas/ New year, then build, test as dry run format and then implement.
Is there any chance of having tonights ratings/forecast for the Europa League?! Or starting a ratings threa? I think however I may be pushing my luck, so I understand if you tell me to 'push off!' No offence intended.
Many thanks
Ben
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Am I missing some news over SPARTAK MOSCOW vs MARSEILLE????????
SPARTAK to win 3/1 MARSEILLE 2.72 is some1 messing this up?
lets see if will change b4 the off..
SPARTAK to win 3/1 MARSEILLE 2.72 is some1 messing this up?
lets see if will change b4 the off..
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
Spartak moscow was on 3/1 to win. I dont know why some1 was trying to push the price even further up. I backed moscow at 3/1 and i lay marseille at 2.72. I got a nice 18 ticks profit..i greened up 20 minutes b4 the off spartak and marseille 5 minutes b4 the off..
Ratings - from most to least goals: -
Chelsea vs. Zilina
FC Basel vs. CFR Cluj
Ajax vs. Real Madrid
Roma vs. B Munich
Braga vs. Arsenal
Partizan Belgrade vs. Shakhtar
Auxerre vs. AC Milan
I will forecast around 20 goals this evening. Final matches in the group stages can be tricky as managers often send out weaker teams. Chelsea should beat Zilina but may be a little short at 1.17 to win, intially. It all depends what team they put out.
Chelsea vs. Zilina
FC Basel vs. CFR Cluj
Ajax vs. Real Madrid
Roma vs. B Munich
Braga vs. Arsenal
Partizan Belgrade vs. Shakhtar
Auxerre vs. AC Milan
I will forecast around 20 goals this evening. Final matches in the group stages can be tricky as managers often send out weaker teams. Chelsea should beat Zilina but may be a little short at 1.17 to win, intially. It all depends what team they put out.